Kaine and Kilgore tied in new Rasmussen Poll

[TheresNoMoney]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Governor_September%2030.htm

Kilgore-45%
Kaine-45%
Potts-5%

This one is going down to the wire.

[Moooooo]

Peaking at the right time.  Like someone else said in another thread, you may see a Republican victory in NJ and a Democratic victory in VA.

[WalterMitty]

Peaking at the right time.  Like someone else said in another thread, you may see a Republican victory in NJ and a Democratic victory in VA.

...or, more likely, a republican vicotry in both.

[Alcon]

Peaking at the right time.  Like someone else said in another thread, you may see a Republican victory in NJ and a Democratic victory in VA.

...or, more likely, a republican vicotry in both.

Well, yes, but it's also more likely that there will be a Democratic victory in both.

[Moooooo]

...or, more likely, a republican vicotry in both.

Right....

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, I always like to see an underdog (Democratic ones anyway ) pull it off so I'm wishing Kaine all the best

Dave

[The Duke]

Kilgore is toast if this continues.

[Sarnstrom]

A Democratic victory in both is clearly more likely. We have a slight edge in NJ and now VA is a pure toss-up.

[Ben.]

I still think that VA is leaning towards Kilgore, if only for reasons of general partisan advantage, what does however seem to be the case is that the momentum is on Kaine’s side and as I said he would do he’s got his second wind, just at the time when Warner has begun to campaign hard across the state… its still a tossup but the momentum is working to Kaine’s advantage right now, doesn’t mean he’ll win, but as I’ve been saying for weeks he’s narrowing the gap.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hard to conclude much from a 45-45 non-incumbent poll.

[© tweed]

Who is Potts taking most of his votes from, Kaine or Kilgore?  If he drops out, who would it help?

[CARLHAYDEN]

I still think that VA is leaning towards Kilgore, if only for reasons of general partisan advantage, what does however seem to be the case is that the momentum is on Kaine’s side and as I said he would do he’s got his second wind, just at the time when Warner has begun to campaign hard across the state… its still a tossup but the momentum is working to Kaine’s advantage right now, doesn’t mean he’ll win, but as I’ve been saying for weeks he’s narrowing the gap.

Actually, Kaine is trying to cover up his past and pretend that he's 'Warner Jr.'

However, Kaine has two major weaknesses:

First, his opposition to the right to keep and bear arms,

Second, his support for illegal immigration.

Both matters are likely to loom large on election day.

[Ben.]

I still think that VA is leaning towards Kilgore, if only for reasons of general partisan advantage, what does however seem to be the case is that the momentum is on Kaine’s side and as I said he would do he’s got his second wind, just at the time when Warner has begun to campaign hard across the state… its still a tossup but the momentum is working to Kaine’s advantage right now, doesn’t mean he’ll win, but as I’ve been saying for weeks he’s narrowing the gap.

Actually, Kaine is trying to cover up his past and pretend that he's 'Warner Jr.'

However, Kaine has two major weaknesses:

First, his opposition to the right to keep and bear arms,

Second, his support for illegal immigration.

Both matters are likely to loom large on election day.

I'd agree, Kaine's campaign is effectively selling its self as ‘Warner’s second term’ and to be fair its not a stupid strategy, Warner is a very popular incumbent who critically appeals to rural and conservative voters, not necessarily the same thing and critically does this without adopting the kind of strategy adopted by Phil Bredensen in TN.

Kaine is not an especially strong candidate, but he’s not bad, he was a decent Mayor of Richmond and a competent Lt.Gov though he was largely elected thanks to Warner’s own coat tails, his positions on the second amendment and the death penalty are weaknesses, in political terms, but Kilgore’s campaign has so far failed to exploit them. In comparison to Kilgore however Kaine is far more polished and likeable, a far more articulate candidate yet Kilgore does have the inbuilt advantages of a republican candidate running in southern state… in the end though I think both candidates’ pluses and minus cancel each other out, though Kilgore or rather the GOP’s institutional advantage in VA should not be under estimated.

The final month of the campaign, is seeing the Kaine campaign bring Warner out in a big way and tying Kaine to the outgoing incumbent “tighter than a nat to a…” well you get the picture, at the same time Kilgore is clearly struggling to reestablish the small but clear lead he had previously held.

The race has tightened as polling day has crept closer, and, as I had argued, folks began to actually seriously ‘tune in’ and consider the race which seems to be being reflected in the polls, either candidate could still blow it however it has to be good news for Democrats’ that Kaine’s campaign, with both his message and theme, seems to have hit its stride while Kilgore does seem to have hit a head wind and to be struggling.

Either candidate can still blow the race, and neither has any meaningful advantage, though Kaine would appear to have made some progress, what is more he has just launched an ad with a personal endorsement from Mark Warner, if he has any hopes of winning, a great deal will rest on the impact that Warner is able to, and chooses to have on the campaign over the next few weeks.     

[Alcon]

I still think that VA is leaning towards Kilgore, if only for reasons of general partisan advantage, what does however seem to be the case is that the momentum is on Kaine’s side and as I said he would do he’s got his second wind, just at the time when Warner has begun to campaign hard across the state… its still a tossup but the momentum is working to Kaine’s advantage right now, doesn’t mean he’ll win, but as I’ve been saying for weeks he’s narrowing the gap.

Actually, Kaine is trying to cover up his past and pretend that he's 'Warner Jr.'

However, Kaine has two major weaknesses:

First, his opposition to the right to keep and bear arms,

Second, his support for illegal immigration.

Both matters are likely to loom large on election day.

I do not mean to offend, but you seem to act as if these two issues are unusually important in every race.  They are important, to be sure, but I don't see how these issues would loom more on election day than in polling?

I have never heard much about people walking into the polling booth and saying "well, I was supporting the Democrat, but now that I think about his immigration and gun control, I can't possibly vote for him."  Abortion, sure.  Gay marriage, yes.  I'm sure it happens with gun control and immigration, but I do not think that a huge proportion of the population will decide the race based on these two issues alone on election day, so your assertion is a bit odd.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Alcon,

First, with respect to illegal immigration, there have been a couple of incidents over the past few weeks in Virginia that have impacted the race.  One in which an illegal alien brutally attacked a minor girl, and another in which a town council provided a special hall for illegal aliens.  I cited both stories earlier (the first from the Richmond Times and the second from one of the Washington newspapers).  The issue has 'legs' in Virginia.

Second, Warner suceeded in getting elected in Virginia BECAUSE he supported the right to keep and bear arms. Kaine is opposed to the right to keep and bear arms.  He went so far as to spend city (taxpayer) money to provide logistical support for an anti-gun group which had to go defunct before being closed down by the IRS for tax fraud.  The head of sportsmen for Warner is NOW supporting Kilgore (and the Democrat candidate for Attorney General).  I earlier posted an article on this.

Finally, with respect  to the problem with the polls, there is a key problem with the turnout models used.

[The Duke]

I agree with Carl that the right to own a gun is a big deal in VA and Kilgore can use it to his advatnage.  But I'm still looking at a trend that sucks for Kilgore.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, there's actually a balanced article on Kaine's gun position on Kaine's website.

http://www.kaine2005.org/news/articles/20050827d.php

[© tweed]

Who is Potts taking most of his votes from, Kaine or Kilgore?  If he drops out, who would it help?

Can someone try to answer this?  (Ben would probably be the guy who knows the answer)

[Moooooo]

Can someone try to answer this?  (Ben would probably be the guy who knows the answer)

MHS would be best suited to answer this question.  He is in Potts State Senate District.

Potts is a liberal Republican.  Both major party candidates are pro-life so he's probably raking up some liberal democratic votes and some moderate republican votes.  Thats about all I know.

[MHS2002]

I would think that Potts is taking more votes away from Kaine at this point. Most of the issue positions that he is highlighted (funding for transportation by raising taxes, abortion, gay marriage) are to the left of Kaine. I am pretty surprised that he is polling this high and I expect Potts to get about 2 or 3 percent on election day.

[© tweed]

Thanks for your help.  Maybe he drops out by election day, but that's probably wishful thinking.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I would think that Potts is taking more votes away from Kaine at this point. Most of the issue positions that he is highlighted (funding for transportation by raising taxes, abortion, gay marriage) are to the left of Kaine. I am pretty surprised that he is polling this high and I expect Potts to get about 2 or 3 percent on election day.

For a good analogy, think of Potts as a Virginia version of John Anderson (1980).

By taking the extreme positions, Potts has allowed Kaine to appear less liberal by comparison.

[Alcon]

Finally, with respect  to the problem with the polls, there is a key problem with the turnout models used.

Would you like to explain that?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Potts is also like Sister Soulja.  His inanitites allow Kaine to escape from the grasp of the hard left in Virginia.

Kaine is now claiming that he opposes tax increases (ROTFLMAO) while Potts admits he favors tax increases.

Kaine is now claiming that he opposes abortions (yeah, sure) while Potts is running around proclaiming abortion to be a fundamental right.

Potts is a proponent of 'gay marriage' while Kaine has remained silent on the matter.

[Ben.]

Kaine is now claiming that he opposes abortions (yeah, sure) while Potts is running around proclaiming abortion to be a fundamental right.

While its true that Potts does act rather like a lightning rod for the Kaine Campaign, it flawed to say that Kaine doesn't really oppose abortion, and isn't really a fairly moderate Dem, on both the Death Penalty and Gun Rights he stands to the left beyond that he opposes Abortion and is a fiscal Hawk, perhaps even to the right of Warner on some issues, though also on the Guns and the Death penalty he is of course to Warner's left.