FIFA World Cup 2018 (Russia) Thread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Germany is probably going to barely avoid the curse and make it to the 16 only to be eliminated by Brazil.

[Tender Branson]

F++king Germany and their luck in the last minute ...

[Meclazine for Israel]

Sweden had so many chances to bury Germany in the first half.

The penalty??? I thought there was a new video system.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Sweden had so many chances to bury Germany in the first half.

The penalty??? I thought there was a new video system.

Manuel Neuer would have held the ball anyway, thus a penalty kick was unnecessary. 

[Tender Branson]

This post is 4 years old, but is still true today:

As expected, the Germans with their stupid luck emerged once again as winners, despite ALG SWE really earning the win.

[dax00]

Shameful display by Panama. They ought to have had at least 2 sent off.

And then there's Colombia with their flopping exhibition.

Senegal look dangerous, but lack proper defense. Will keep an eye on them.

[Sestak]

So wait, Japan only needs to draw Poland to reach the knockout? Is that right?

[mvd10]

Poland out, Morocco out. F**k. Kurwa. F**k.

Seriously, Poland is the number 8 of the world and won 8 out of 10 games in their qualification group. But they were absolutely disastrous in their first 2 World Cup matches.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So wait, Japan only needs to draw Poland to reach the knockout? Is that right?

Yes.

[NewYorkExpress]

Nice recovery by England. They clearly deserved to win this one.

Tomorrow, I'm taking, Egypt over Saudi Arabia (Neither team can advance, bur Egypt has been playing better than the Saudis), Russia over Uruguay (Normally, I'd pick Uruguay to win and finish atop the group, but there are perks to hosting a World Cup in Putin country, and winning matches like this is one of them), Portugal over Iran (Cristiano Ronaldo by himself is better than anyone on Iran's team), and Spain over Morocco (there is just too great a talent gap in this game between Spain and Morocco).

[Meclazine for Israel]

[Meclazine for Israel]

[Leinad]

Seriously, Poland is the number 8 of the world and won 8 out of 10 games in their qualification group. But they were absolutely disastrous in their first 2 World Cup matches.

To be fair in the qualifiers they got smashed 4-0 by Denmark. They seem to struggle against good teams. I guess they're used to Lewandowski getting service to score 5 against the minnows, but they struggle to get it to him when they're outplayed.

(Cristiano Ronaldo by himself is better than anyone on Iran's team)

You can say that for arguably any team though

If we're making predictions I'll say:

Uruguay 2-1 Russia (bonus: late set piece winner by Godin)
Egypt 2-0 Saudi Arabia
Spain 2-1 Morocco
Portugal 1-0 Iran

[Landslide Lyndon]

This post is 4 years old, but is still true today:

As expected, the Germans with their stupid luck emerged once again as winners, despite ALG SWE really earning the win.

That was a stupid post even back then. Germany should have won that match 3-0.
And it's even stupider now. How can you talk about luck when Germans had two amazing chances with Gomez and Brandt during the last minutes? It felt as if Sweden was playing with 10.

[Donerail]

Iran 1-0 Portugal, cowards

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

My guesses:

Iran-Portugal: 2:2

Spain-Morocco: 2:1

[NewYorkExpress]

So I was wrong about Russia...but they're through...but they'll face either Portugal or Spain next.

So, for tomorrow, I'll take Australia over Peru, France over Denmark (with just enough goal differential in both matches to allow Australia to advance in Denmark's place), I'm still taking Iceland over Croatia (that loss to Nigeria did not throw me off the Iceland victory train..and since Croatia advanced already, they have less incentive to win this game), and a draw between Argentina and Nigeria (which means Argentina is eliminated...sorry Messi fans).

[RINO Tom]

Anyone got a good site they check for updates on who's advanced/most likely to advance?  Most of my Google searches have produced annoying sites that give me the odds and not really in a format that's easy for a dumb American to understand.  Here is where I believe it stands currently before the 1:00 pm CST games today:

GROUP A: Uruguay and Russia advanced; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are eliminated
GROUP B: Morocco is eliminated; Spain, Portugal and Iran could all still advance
GROUP C: France advanced; Peru is eliminated; Denmark and Australia could get second
GROUP D: Croatia advanced; Nigeria, Iceland and Argentina all still could get second
GROUP E: Costa Rica is eliminated; Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia could all still advance
GROUP F: Mexico advanced; South Korea is eliminated; Germany and Sweden could still advance
GROUP G: England and Belgium advanced; Tunisia and Panama are eliminated
GROUP H: Poland is eliminated; Japan, Senegal and Colombia could all still advance

Is that correct?  If so, what did I get wrong?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Anyone got a good site they check for updates on who's advanced/most likely to advance?  Most of my Google searches have produced annoying sites that give me the odds and not really in a format that's easy for a dumb American to understand.  Here is where I believe it stands currently before the 1:00 pm CST games today:

GROUP A: Uruguay and Russia advanced; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are eliminated
GROUP B: Morocco is eliminated; Spain, Portugal and Iran could all still advance
GROUP C: France advanced; Peru is eliminated; Denmark and Australia could get second
GROUP D: Croatia advanced; Nigeria, Iceland and Argentina all still could get second
GROUP E: Costa Rica is eliminated; Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia could all still advance
GROUP F: Mexico advanced; South Korea is eliminated; Germany and Sweden could still advance
GROUP G: England and Belgium advanced; Tunisia and Panama are eliminated
GROUP H: Poland is eliminated; Japan, Senegal and Colombia could all still advance

Is that correct?  If so, what did I get wrong?

Not quite; group F is wrong. Mexico could still be eliminated while South Korea could still advanced (albeit both being extremely unlikely).
If Germany beats South Korea and Sweden beats Mexico, Mexico could still be eliminated, as all three teams would have 6 points. In that case Germany would have two win by a 2-goal difference (due to the head-to-head record) and Sweden by a 1-goal difference.
If, however, South Korea beats Germany 😂 and Mexico beats Sweden, South Korea could still advance.

Qualified:

Group A: Russia, Uruguay

Group C: France

Group D: Croatia

Group G: Belgium, England
Eliminated:

Group A: Egypt, Saudi Arabia

Group B: Morocco

Group C: Peru

Group E: Costa Rica

Group G: Panama, Tunisia

Group H: Poland

[RINO Tom]

^ Huh, weird.   I figured a 2-loss South Korea and a 2-win Mexico squad were locks for their respective fates.

[Donerail]

Fivethirtyeight has a fairly junky "Soccer Power Index" but a nice visualization, and here's an ESPN article of potential advancement scenarios.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

^ Huh, weird.   I figured a 2-loss South Korea and a 2-win Mexico squad were locks for their respective fates.

I added some explanations.
Do you know about the tiebreaker rules for the group stage?

points → goal difference → number of goals → head-to-head record → number of yellow/red cards → drawing of lots

[RINO Tom]

^ Huh, weird.   I figured a 2-loss South Korea and a 2-win Mexico squad were locks for their respective fates.

I added some explanations.
Do you know about the tiebreaker rules for the group stage?

I know they go by goal differential and then by goals scored ... no idea what would come third, LOL.  I guess I just had it in my head that two of anything sealed your fate for some reason.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

^ Huh, weird.   I figured a 2-loss South Korea and a 2-win Mexico squad were locks for their respective fates.

I added some explanations.
Do you know about the tiebreaker rules for the group stage?

I know they go by goal differential and then by goals scored ... no idea what would come third, LOL.  I guess I just had it in my head that two of anything sealed your fate for some reason.

Just added another explanation.
But you know more about the rules of soccer association football than the average European knows about the rules of American football.

If two teams have the same number of points, the same goal difference and the same number of goals, that team will advance which won the match between each other.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

GROUP C: France advanced; Peru is eliminated; Denmark and Australia could get second.

If Denmark beats France tomorrow they will become the group winner. (France would still advance in that case, of course, but it would have an impact on the match schedule.)