Is TX-02 in play?
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  Is TX-02 in play?
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Author Topic: Is TX-02 in play?  (Read 880 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: May 29, 2018, 10:27:23 AM »

An open seat in the Houston suburbs that's R+11, but Trump only won it by 9%.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2018, 10:38:47 AM »

Absolutely not. The republican candidate is a veteran with a cool eyepatch. He's gonna smack down who ever the democrats run
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2018, 10:38:48 AM »

Trump winning it by 9 means it voted 11 points to the right of the country, exactly in line with the PVI. So I'm not sure why you said "only" 9 points.

Anyways, it's not impossible, depends on exactly how huge the wave is.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2018, 10:41:03 AM »

Probably not.
Republicans got a pretty good candidate here in Rick Crenshaw.
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Checkard
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2018, 10:43:05 AM »

Cook PVI of 11 suggests that in a typical R on D matchup the R wins by 22 points. If something is 11 points right of the nation the expected outcome is 61R-39D according to PV. Hillary Clinton did 13 points better than the PVI.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2018, 10:56:02 AM »

I don't consider this competitive - it shifted very hard between 2012 and 2016, and I suspect Hillary probably maxed out the Democratic vote there. Maybe in a few years it will be viable, but probably not yet.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2018, 11:01:11 AM »

Probably not, unless it's a Democratic megatsunami, rather than a mere tsunami.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2018, 12:02:09 PM »

Depends how big the wave is.
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2018, 12:33:11 PM »

Texas 6th is probably a better pick up do to Joe Barton resigning due to a Sex Scandal. It's only has a P V of 9. Don't know what exact percentage did Trump won in this district in 2016. It's still safe R though.

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136or142
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2018, 01:34:54 PM »

Dan Crenshaw vs. Todd Litton.

Had the Democrats nominated J Darnell Jones, two navy Lieutenants would have been running against each other.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2018, 01:39:21 PM »

Probably not, unless it's a Democratic megatsunami, rather than a mere tsunami.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2018, 02:50:56 PM »

Likely R, but it could be competitive under the right circumstances.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2018, 03:13:04 PM »

No, Crenshaw is a good candidate.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2018, 03:23:56 PM »

Man, it's hard to dislike Crenshaw even as a democrat, would obviously still vote for Litton, but yeah.
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2018, 05:29:21 PM »

Crenshaw is a great candidate: young, military background, inspiring story, speaks Spanish, targeting young and moderate voters. It's Safe R.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2018, 05:20:01 PM »

No. Democrats recruited a good candidate, but the GOP lucked out and got a really good candidate after the absolutely terrible state representative Kevin Roberts decided to run one of the most negative, spiteful, immature run-off campaigns in memory and immolate his career in the process.
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