What LimoLiberal said in 2016!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

People of Atlas.....I have made a shocking discovery today. I was sifting through the 2016 board because I can't sleep and I found this from the Clinton email investigation reopening thread in Late October 2016:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250022.msg5347418#msg5347418

to quote what he said "Bold prediction: Trump wins, Democrats take back the house and senate in 2018, become a force in the south."

!!!!!!!

[Politician]

A stopped clock is right twice a day.

[courts]

well that's what i thought would happen at the time too.not so sure now

[NeverAgain]

Who care.

[HillGoose]

"bruh my homeboy Jeb Bush is going to win President with like all the electeral votes"

- me on some website in August 2015.

[LimoLiberal]

I say this half-joking, but my analysis was pretty spot on in 2016

[/quote]

I understand people getting annoyed. But we have seen this play out so many times this year. Trump does something bad, media focuses on it for a week, his poll numbers crater. Than in a few weeks, Trump isn't acting crazy, and his poll numbers inch up and the race tightens. I don't think its unreasonable to think that this race will tighten substantially, if trump can keep his s*** together.
[/quote]

Trump. You can feel democratic enthusiasm crashing and Republican enthusiasm going up. I feel he will eke out a narrow electoral college win but lose the popular vote. And I say this as a diehard democrat.

Warning: This is an extremely scalding take partially written in satire and partially written in urine-soaked bedsheets as I frantically move the goalposts as each new poll comes in.


If Hillary Clinton wins in 2016, the Supreme Court will most likely, finally favor the democrats for the first time in a while. But if the economy slips into recession, then the Democrats could feasibly lose 12 Senate seats and more than 50 house seats. But if Trump wins, the democrats could actually make gains in the house, and possibly retain or stem the inevitable bleeding of the 2018 senate map.

Goddamn, I predicted the Jim Gray KY-06 run 4 days after the election

http://mycn2.com/politics/after-bruising-us-senate-campaign-democrats-say-gray-should-look-to-congress-constitutional-offices-in-future


He won the district by 6 points in his senate run, so would probably shape up to be a close race this year, especially with an unpopular president trump.

It worsened from there, though, with the rain in NoVA incident

[Virginiá]

I understand people getting annoyed. But we have seen this play out so many times this year. Trump does something bad, media focuses on it for a week, his poll numbers crater. Than in a few weeks, Trump isn't acting crazy, and his poll numbers inch up and the race tightens. I don't think its unreasonable to think that this race will tighten substantially, if trump can keep his s*** together.

It's very interesting that for someone who pays as much attention to politics as you, you can't seem to think beyond one election. We have  so many past elections to look for patterns in, and while some are disputable, the midterm dynamic isn't. Pissed off people vote, content people don't. There is a reason the president's party tends to get blown out so often in midterms, and you won't find a single example in modern political history where they didn't without the president being absurdly popular (>60% approvals).

Your entire outlook is based on an extraordinarily flimsy idea that is itself a logical fallacy.