Predict the final results for the senate races

[windjammer]

We are talking a lot about ratings blablabla. But which final results are you expecting are you expecting for these contested senate races in the end?

[Politician]

AZ: Sinema +5 (vs McSally)
CA: Feinstein +22 (vs De Leon)
CT: Murphy +33
DE: Carper +36
FL: Nelson +6
HI: Hirono +78
IN: Donnelly +1
ME: King +25
MD: Cardin +40
MA: Warren +32
MI: Stabenow +16
MN: Klobuchar +22
MN-S: Smith +18
MS: Wicker +15
MS-S: Hyde-Smith +11 (runoff)
MO: McCaskill +3
MT: Tester +7
NE: Fischer +8 (sleeper)
NV: Rosen +5
NJ: Menendez +18
NM: Heinrich +22
NY: Gillibrand +48
ND: Heitkamp +4
OH: Brown +9
PA: Casey +15
RI: Whitehouse +44
TN: Bredesen +2
TX: Cruz +2
UT: Romney +39
VT: Sanders +80
VA: Kaine +20
WA: Cantwell +25
WV: Manchin +8
WI: Baldwin +16
WY: Barrasso +25

[Yellowhammer]

FL: Scott +1
ND: Heitkamp +2
IN: Braun +2
MO: McCaskill +2
NV: Rosen +3
TN: Blackburn +3
MT: Tester +5
AZ: Sinema +5
WV: Manchin +6
OH: Brown +8
TX: Cruz +8
WI: Baldwin +10
MI: Stabenow +12
PA: Casey +13

[mcmikk]

AZ: Sinema +5 (VS McSally)
FL: Nelson +6
IN: Donnelly +2
MI: Stabenow +17
MO: McCaskill +3
MT: Tester +6
NV: Rosen +7
ND: Heitkamp +4
OH: Brown +7
PA: Casey +15
TN: Blackburn +6
TX: Cruz +7
WI: Baldwin +12
WV: Manchin +5

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

AZ: Sinema +12 (VS Ward)
FL: Nelson +8
IN: Donnelly +2
MI: Stabenow +22
MO: McCaskill +6
MT: Tester +7
NV: Rosen +8
ND: Heitkamp +5
OH: Brown +12
PA: Casey +22
TN: Bredesen +5
TX: Cruz +3
WI: Baldwin +14
WV: Manchin +8

[Xing]

AZ: Sinema+4
FL: Nelson+5
IN: Braun+2
MO: McCaskill+1
MT: Tester+4
NV: Rosen+6UTDH+92
ND: Heitkamp+2
OH: Brown+8
PA: Casey+13
TN: Blackburn+3
TX: Cruz+8
WV: Manchin+5
WI: Baldwin+10

[Maxwell]

AZ: Sinema +2 (v. McSally) [FLIP]
FL: Nelson +4
IN: Braun +2 [R FLIP]
MI: Stabenow +10
MO: McCaskill +3
MT: Tester +4
NV: Rosen +6 [FLIP]
ND: Heitkamp +2
OH: Brown +9
PA: Casey +15
TN: Blackburn +3
TX: Cruz +4
WI: Baldwin +14
WV: Manchin +1

a lot of these are gun to my head predictions - I definitely think one of ND, WV, or IN are going to flip to the Republicans.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

These will change, it's only may! Man this is early to do, but given what I know today here it goes:

AZ- Sinema win 51-48

CA- I honestly have no clue here lol.

CT- Murphy win 62-35

DE- Carper win 64-34

Fl- Nelson win 51-48

HI- Hirono win 67-30

IN- Braun win 51-47

ME- King win 58-42 everyone else

MD- Cardin win 63-35

MA- Warren win 62-35

MI- Stabenow win 57-41

MN- Klobuchar win 63-33

MN- Smith win 56-40

MS- Wicker win 55-44

MS- Hyde-Smith win 59-41

MO- McCaskill win 50-47

MT- Tester win 47.52-47.49

NE- Fischer win 61-37

NV- Rosen win 49-47

NJ- Menendez win 56-42

NM- Heinrich win 56-42

NY- Gillbrand win 69-28

ND- Cramer win 53-45

OH- Brown win 52-46

PA- Casey win 55-43

RI- Whitehouse win 64-34

TN- Blackburn win 53-45

TX- Cruz win 54-44

Utah- Romney win 71-26

VT- Sanders win 73-27 everyone else

VA- Kaine win 57-40

WA- Cantwell win 58-39

WV- Manchin win 52-46

WI- Baldwin win 53-45

WY- Barrasso win 71-27

[heatcharger]

AZ: Sinema +5 (D pickup)
CA: Feinstein +25
CT: Murphy +21
DE: Carper +31
FL: Nelson +4
HI: Hirono +50
IN: Braun +2 (R pickup)
ME: King +7
MD: Cardin +25
MA: Warren +21
MI: Stabenow +11
MN: Klobuchar +26
MN-S: Smith +10
MS: Wicker +17
MS-S: Hyde-Smith +12
MO: McCaskill +3
MT: Tester +1
NE: Fischer +15
NV: Rosen +4 (D pickup)
NJ: Menendez +9
NM: Heinrich +16
NY: Gillibrand +31
ND: Cramer +2 (R pickup)
OH: Brown +6
PA: Casey +11
RI: Whitehouse +31
TN: Blackburn +3
TX: Cruz +8
UT: R-Money +42
VT: Sanders +45
VA: Kaine +11
WA: Cantwell +25
WV: Manchin +3
WI: Baldwin +7
WY: who care

[Rhenna]

These will change, it's only may! Man this is early to do, but given what I know today here it goes:

AZ- Sinema win 51-48

CA- I honestly have no clue here lol.

CT- Murphy win 62-35

DE- Carper win 64-34

Fl- Nelson win 51-48

HI- Hirono win 67-30

IN- Braun win 51-47

ME- King win 58-42 everyone else

MD- Cardin win 63-35

MA- Warren win 62-35

MI- Stabenow win 57-41

MN- Klobuchar win 63-33

MN- Smith win 56-40

MS- Wicker win 55-44

MS- Hyde-Smith win 59-41

MO- McCaskill win 50-47

MT- Tester win 47.52-47.49

NE- Fischer win 61-37

NV- Rosen win 49-47

NJ- Menendez win 56-42

NM- Heinrich win 56-42

NY- Gillbrand win 69-28

ND- Cramer win 53-45

OH- Brown win 52-46

PA- Casey win 55-43

RI- Whitehouse win 64-34

TN- Blackburn win 53-45

TX- Cruz win 54-44

Utah- Romney win 71-26

VT- Sanders win 73-27 everyone else

VA- Kaine win 57-40

WA- Cantwell win 58-39

WV- Manchin win 52-46

WI- Baldwin win 53-45

WY- Barrasso win 71-27

Why do you think CHS does better than Wicker?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

These will change, it's only may! Man this is early to do, but given what I know today here it goes:

AZ- Sinema win 51-48

CA- I honestly have no clue here lol.

CT- Murphy win 62-35

DE- Carper win 64-34

Fl- Nelson win 51-48

HI- Hirono win 67-30

IN- Braun win 51-47

ME- King win 58-42 everyone else

MD- Cardin win 63-35

MA- Warren win 62-35

MI- Stabenow win 57-41

MN- Klobuchar win 63-33

MN- Smith win 56-40

MS- Wicker win 55-44

MS- Hyde-Smith win 59-41

MO- McCaskill win 50-47

MT- Tester win 47.52-47.49

NE- Fischer win 61-37

NV- Rosen win 49-47

NJ- Menendez win 56-42

NM- Heinrich win 56-42

NY- Gillbrand win 69-28

ND- Cramer win 53-45

OH- Brown win 52-46

PA- Casey win 55-43

RI- Whitehouse win 64-34

TN- Blackburn win 53-45

TX- Cruz win 54-44

Utah- Romney win 71-26

VT- Sanders win 73-27 everyone else

VA- Kaine win 57-40

WA- Cantwell win 58-39

WV- Manchin win 52-46

WI- Baldwin win 53-45

WY- Barrasso win 71-27

Why do you think CHS does better than Wicker?

Because she is facing a weaker candidate, not on his own right, but being African American for MS automatically makes a candidate weaker.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

People here are way underrating Sinema. She's leading McSally by 6-9, Ward by 8-10, and Arpaio by 25-30. She's been above 50% in all but one recent poll.

[BlueDogs2020]

WV- Manchin +12
MT- Tester +7
ND- Heitkamp +3
MO- McCaskill +2
IN- Braun +1
FL- Nelson +5
AZ- Sinema +5
NV- Rosen +2
TN- Bredesen +4
TX- Cruz +8
OH- Brown +6
PA- Casey +9
WI- Baldwin +7
MS Special- Espy and Hyde-Smith make it to runoff, Hyde-Smith +13
MN Special- Smith +8

thats all the competitive races right?
Some of my ratings right now seem too generous to Democratic incumbents, but I hold fairly strong that Tester and Manchin will win. MO, IN, ND, and FL probably won´t go more than 5 points in either direction, and believe it or not I think Donnelly is the most vulnerable, I think McCaskill will win by 2-4 points.

[Strudelcutie4427]

   
   
Re: Predict the final results for the senate races
« Reply #7 on: Today at 11:47:43 am »   
Reply with quote Ignore
These will change, it's only may! Man this is early to do, but given what I know today here it goes:

AZ- McSally win 52-47

CA- Feinstein win 68-32

CT- Murphy win 60-37

DE- Carper win 66-32

Fl- Scott win 50-48

HI- Hirono win 73-26

IN- Braun win 53-45

ME- King win 53-40-6

MD- Cardin win 61-35-4 (Bradass87 runs as a 3rd party)

MA- Warren win 56-39

MI- Stabenow win 54-44

MN- Klobuchar win 61-37

MN- Smith win 52-47

MS- Wicker win 58-40

MS- Hyde-Smith win 58-40

MO- Hawley win 49-48

MT- Tester win 49-48

NE- Fischer win 65-33

NV- Heller win 47-46

NJ- Menendez win 54-45

NM- Heinrich win 54-44

NY- Gillbrand win 65-32

ND- Cramer win 51-48

OH- Renacci win 49-48

PA- Casey win 51-46

RI- Whitehouse win 61-37

TN- Blackburn win 52-46

TX- Cruz win 56-43

Utah- Romney win 75-22

VT- Sanders win 68-26-5

VA- Kaine win 54-44

WA- Cantwell win 57-41

WV- Manchin win 50-49

WI- Baldwin win 50-48

WY- Barrasso win 74-24

[daveosupremo]

AZ: Sinema+2
FL: Scott+4
IN: Braun+7
MO: Hawley+2
MT: Rosendale+2
NV: Heller+1
ND: Cramer+6
OH: Brown+3
PA: Casey+4
TN: Blackburn+6
TX: Cruz+8
WV: Morrissey+3
WI: Baldwin+4

[Politician]

AZ: Sinema+2
FL: Scott+4
IN: Braun+7
MO: Hawley+2
MT: Rosendale+2
NV: Heller+1
ND: Cramer+6
OH: Brown+3
PA: Casey+4
TN: Blackburn+6
TX: Cruz+8
WV: Morrissey+3
WI: Baldwin+4

LMAO

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Competitive races only

AZ: Sinema wins (D Gain)
FL: Nelson wins
IN: Donnelly wins narrowly
MO: McCaskill wins
MS-S: Hyde-Smith wins but by a smaller margin than expected
MT: Tester wins
NV: Rosen wins (D Gain)
ND: Heitkamp wins
TN: Bredesen wins by around 1.5% (D Gain)
TX: O'Rourke wins after several recounts (D Gain)
WV: Manchin wins, Blankenship gets just below 5% as write in

TX is my boldest (and unlikeliest) prediction by far, ofc.

[LimoLiberal]

Only competitive-ish races

AZ: Sinema+2 (D FLIP)
NV: Rosen +3 (D FLIP)
TN: Blackburn +8
MS-2: Hyde-Smith +14
TX: Cruz +10
MT: Tester +1
ND: Cramer +10 (R FLIP)
MO: Hawley +2 (R FLIP)
IN: Braun +8 (R FLIP)
WV: Morrissey +5 (R FLIP)
FL: Scott +3 (R FLIP)
OH: Brown +4
WI: Baldwin +6
MI: Stabenow +10
PA: Casey +11
VA: Kaine +15
NJ: Menendez +9

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Only competitive-ish races

AZ: Sinema+2 (D FLIP)
NV: Rosen +3 (D FLIP)
TN: Blackburn +8
MS-2: Hyde-Smith +14
TX: Cruz +10
MT: Tester +1
ND: Cramer +10 (R FLIP)
MO: Hawley +2 (R FLIP)
IN: Braun +8 (R FLIP)
WV: Morrissey +5 (R FLIP)
FL: Scott +3 (R FLIP)
OH: Brown +4
WI: Baldwin +6
MI: Stabenow +10
PA: Casey +11
VA: Kaine +15
NJ: Menendez +9

Those range from hackish to incredibly hackish.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Only competitive-ish races

AZ: Sinema+2 (D FLIP)
NV: Rosen +3 (D FLIP)
TN: Blackburn +8
MS-2: Hyde-Smith +14
TX: Cruz +10
MT: Tester +1
ND: Cramer +10 (R FLIP)
MO: Hawley +2 (R FLIP)
IN: Braun +8 (R FLIP)
WV: Morrissey +5 (R FLIP)
FL: Scott +3 (R FLIP)
OH: Brown +4
WI: Baldwin +6
MI: Stabenow +10
PA: Casey +11
VA: Kaine +15
NJ: Menendez +9

Those range from hackish to incredibly hackish.

This is an improvement from before.

[ctrepublican512]

AZ: Sinema +5 (vs McSally)
FL: Nelson +6
IN: Donnelly +1
MI: Stabenow +16
MS-S: Hyde-Smith +11 (runoff)
MO: McCaskill +3
MT: Tester +7
NE: Fischer +8 (sleeper)
NV: Rosen +5
ND: Heitkamp +4
OH: Brown +9
PA: Casey +15
TN: Bredesen +2
TX: Cruz +2
WI: Baldwin +16
WV: Manchin +8

I want what you're smoking

[Jeppe]

AZ: Sinema +8
CA: Feinstein +36
CT: Murphy +28
DE: Carper +34
FL: Nelson +6
HI: Hirono +52
IN: Donnelly +3
ME: King +34
MD: Cardin +32
MA: Warren +35
MI: Stabenow +22
MN: Klobuchar +37
MN: Smith +14
MS: Wicker +16
MS: Hyde-Smith +12
MO: McCaskill +5
MT: Tester +8
NE: Fischer +9
NV: Rosen +6
NJ: Menendez +14
NM: Heinrich +22
NY: Gillibrand +37
ND: Heitkamp +6
OH: Brown +7
PA: Casey +22
RI: Whitehouse +41
TN: Blackburn +4
TX: Cruz +2
UT: Romney +40
VT: Sanders +46
VA: Kaine +18
WA: Cantwell +25
WV: Machin +7
WI: Baldwin +15
WY: Barbados +34

[Politician]

Only competitive-ish races

AZ: Sinema+2 (D FLIP)
NV: Rosen +3 (D FLIP)
TN: Blackburn +8
MS-2: Hyde-Smith +14
TX: Cruz +10
MT: Tester +1
ND: Cramer +10 (R FLIP)
MO: Hawley +2 (R FLIP)
IN: Braun +8 (R FLIP)
WV: Morrissey +5 (R FLIP)
FL: Scott +3 (R FLIP)
OH: Brown +4
WI: Baldwin +6
MI: Stabenow +10
PA: Casey +11
VA: Kaine +15
NJ: Menendez +9

No

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I find it very hard to imagine Casey and Stabenow only winning by 5 and 4 points, even in a neutral year.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Posting from mobile so I have to format this weird or else the post button disapears...

NV: Rosen +6, AZ: Sinema +4, MT: Tester +4, TX: Cruz +5, ND: Heitkamp +3, MO: McCaskill +2, WI: Baldwin +7, MI: Stabenow +8, OH: Brown +7, TN: Blackburn +1, IN: Donnelly +1, FL: Nelson +3, PA: Casey +9, WV: Manchin +4