Most disastrous potential retirements?

[wesmoorenerd]

This one isn't necessarily exclusive to 2018, but which seats would become the most dramatically more vulnerable if the current incumbent were to retire?

Some starters: David Valadao, John Katko, Peter King, Sean Patrick Maloney, Josh Gottheimer, Collin Peterson, Susan Collins, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp, Joe Manchin

[Virginiá]

Díaz-Balart for one. I wouldn't go so far as to say he is a very strong incumbent, but that seat would be a lot easier to pick up if it was open this year. Davis and Hultgren in Illinois too.

Not exactly sure if those qualify as dramatically more competitive seats though. They aren't the worst targets as-is.

[Lamda]

Manchin,Heidkamp,Collins and Peterson are the obvious answers.
In North Dakota i think that State Senator Erin Oban is the best potenial Democratic candidate to try to hold Hedkamp's seat.
Richard Ojeda could try to succeed Manchin.
Peterson's seat will be gone for the Democrats in the moment that he retire.

[Rhenna]

House: Collin Peterson, David Valadao, John Katko, Erik Paulsen, Peter DeFazio, Kurt Schrader, Carlos Curbelo and Mario Díaz-Balart. Most of the obvious choices like Lobiondo, Ros-Lehtinen, Nolan, Walz, and McSally already retired this year, I'll be interested to see if more leave in 2020.
In the Senate if Manchin, Donnelly, Jones, McCaskill, Tester, or Heitkamp retired their race would be a car crash for Democrats. Susan Collins and most of the class 3 Republicans like Johnson, Toomey, etc, come to midn.
For Governor, obvious contenders would be Baker, Phil Scott, Bullock, and Bel Edwards.

[NewYorkExpress]

Peter King's seat probably flips if he isn't running for re-election in 2020.

In the Senate, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Bill Nelson's seat is a logical answer, given the Florida Democratic Party's very clear weaknesses.

[Yellowhammer]

2018 senate:
Dems: Manchin (I think he actually considered it,) Nelson, Sherrod Brown (would've made the race a tossup,) Donnelly, Tester, and Heitkamp
Repubs: Cruz

2020 senate:
Dems: Shaheen
Repubs: Collins & Gardner (it's already a steep climb for Gardner, but it's almost impossible for a non-incumbent Repub to be elected in Colorado in a presidential year)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

2018 senate:
Dems: Manchin (I think he actually considered it,) Nelson, Sherrod Brown (would've made the race a tossup,) Donnelly, Tester, and Heitkamp
Repubs: Cruz

2020 senate:
Dems: Shaheen
Repubs: Collins & Gardner (it's already a steep climb for Gardner, but it's almost impossible for a non-incumbent Repub to be elected in Colorado in a presidential year)

cruz retiring would make it easier for repubs to hold it. no one likes ted except far righters

[Politician]

House R's: Valadao, Paulsen, Curbelo, Upton, P. King, Katko
House D's: Peterson, Kind, Cartwright, Loebsack
Senate D's: Manchin, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Nelson

[LimoLiberal]

I was thinking about this yesterday: If Comstock retired, wouldn't that be a slight boost for Republicans? NRCC plans on ploughing millions into the DC market, where there is only one competitive race. Frees up a lot of money for elsewhere if they were to triage an open VA-10.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Paul Ryan's Speakership opened the door for Walker's demise and put the House in jeopardy.

2020 Hopefully, Susan Collins retires, or she can be knocked out

[wesmoorenerd]

I was thinking about this yesterday: If Comstock retired, wouldn't that be a slight boost for Republicans? NRCC plans on ploughing millions into the DC market, where there is only one competitive race. Frees up a lot of money for elsewhere if they were to triage an open VA-10.

Interesting thought, but the money freed up isn't really worth having to triage a winnable race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin Manchout.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Senate: Manchin, Tester, Nelson, Collins, Heitkamp, Brown, Gardner.
House: Peterson, Valadao, Gottheimer, Katko, MacArthur.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Paul Ryan's Speakership opened the door for Walker's demise and put the House in jeopardy.

2020 Hopefully, Susan Collins retires, or she can be knocked out

Susan Collins is not a strong incumbent anymore. She blew away her strength as a candidate by voting for the Tax Bill.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Paul Ryan's Speakership opened the door for Walker's demise and put the House in jeopardy.

2020 Hopefully, Susan Collins retires, or she can be knocked out

Susan Collins is not a strong incumbent anymore. She blew away her strength as a candidate by voting for the Tax Bill.

Nobody will care about the tax bill in 2020. I think it's still entirely possible she's reelected in another landslide. She's still very popular.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins isn't safe, if the Democrat wins in a route,  then she will fall.  Just like Kelly Story did. But,  Send must win in 2018, first.