Which party takes control of the Senate after the 2018 mid terms?

[Lincoln Republican]

We hear a great deal about the "Blue Wave" and that many pundits expect the Democrats to take control of the House of Representatives after the mid term elections this November.

But I have to admit I have not been following Senate races too closely.

So which party is expected to control the Senate after the November mid term elections?

[wesmoorenerd]

Republicans have a better than 50/50 shot of keeping the chamber due to the sheer imbalance in seats that they're defending vs seats that the Democrats are defending. Republicans only have 9 seats up to the Democrats' 24, many of which are highly vulnerable and in Republican dominated states like Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia. If Republicans can flip just a few of those seats, it's over for the Dems.

Democrats, though, have a path to get to the majority. They need a net gain of two seats, and Nevada, Arizona, and Tennessee are all viable (arguably even favored) to flip their way. As long as they get that net gain of two seats, they're in the majority. That means flipping two of those three and keeping all of their own, flipping all three despite losing one (like Indiana), or possibly winning another longshot state like Texas and losing two.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pathway lies with TN and AZ or NV. Bredesen Is a strong candidate

[KingSweden]

I have consistently thought we’ll see a 50-50 Senate, so GOP

[wesmoorenerd]

I have consistently thought we’ll see a 50-50 Senate, so GOP

I've been thinking that that would be quite the scenario. Imagine how much power a single moderate GOP Senator could have in that situation. Or, conversely, imagine how much heat Collins could take for letting through unpopular legislation.

[Lachi]

I have it 50-50 (Dems gain AZ and NV, GOP gain IN), so Republicans hold on there.

[Sir Mohamed]

GOP is favored due to the small number of competative seats they have to defend compared to the Dems. My current prediction is a 50-50 split. Dems hain NV and AZ while IN is a GOP pick-up. If the polls are the same by October, TN is a potential Dem gain as well.

[Politician]

Democratic 52-48. D's gain AZ, NV and TN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It will be a divided Senate no matter what. Pathway lies with NV,  AZ and TN.  TN and NV are the Democrats best chance

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Democrats

[Yellowhammer]

Ranges anywhere from 52D-48R to 55R-45D; both of these extremes are unlikely. I think the GOP will most likely have a net gain of one seat, picking up 3 of FL, WV, IN, MO, & ND, losing both NV & AZ, and narrowly holding TN.

[ON Progressive]

I have it 51-49 D. Pickups in AZ/NV.

[Vespucci]

Right now, I'd say 51-49 or 52-48 D, with pickups in AZ, NV, and TN, and IN as a tossup.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I too think we could end up with a tied Senate.

[Calthrina950]

I believe that Republicans will retain control of the Senate. In the end, I think Democrats will hold all of their seats except for (maybe) IN, while gaining NV and AZ. Republicans will hold on in TN and in TX; they will easily hold MS-Special, which in my opinion will not even be competitive once in the runoff stage. NE is also in no danger for Republicans whatsoever. This would leave us with a 50-50 scenario, with Republicans keeping control due to Pence's tie-breaker.

[Devout Centrist]

Bold prediction: The Democratic Party

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV,  AZ, TN and MO are tipping point races in the Senate and Trump has put the GoP at risk in the House and Senate.  It is bold to predict that Democrats will win Senate,  but if the House flips,  so can the Senate

[mcmikk]

I still think Democrats narrowly win control, holding all their own while picking up NV and AZ.

If the Blue Wave is still dissipating in October, I'll be more inclined to believe that Republicans hold on. But for now, I think it's just horrible reactionary punditry and a media obsession with horse races that make it seem like the Wave is dying.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The blue wave haven't dissipated.  Gubernatorial map favors a presidential map, WI,  IL,  MI are primed for pickups and Senate map that is R favored.  If the House can flip, so can the Senate.

[Rhenna]

GOP Pickups: West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, and one of either Missouri, Florida, Montana, or Ohio.
DEM Pickups: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.
Gop nets 1 seat making it 52-48.

[Goldenstateguy]

Right now, I believe Republicans are favored to hold the Senate. This is because for Democrats to win a majority they will have to hold 5 double-digit Trump seats (WV, ND, MT, IN, and MO) and flip two Republican seats (NV and AZ), which is unlikely, though not impossible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Most of the Polls have shown Democrats within striking distance.  Donnelly, Manchin and Nelson

[windjammer]

Well,
The democrats need 2 more seats, and picking NV and AZ, this is doable.

The problem is that they are defending too many seats Trump carried by wide margins. Losing 1 seat or 2 seems definitely more likely than keeping all their seats.

So 50-50 for now.

[Blair]

GOP Pickups: West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, and one of either Missouri, Florida, Montana, or Ohio.
DEM Pickups: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.
Gop nets 1 seat making it 52-48.

Is Ohio really at risk?

If I had to bet on it I'd say it's going to be 50-50; the Dems could easily win both NV, TN, and AZ whilst losing Indiana.

[Rhenna]

GOP Pickups: West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota, and one of either Missouri, Florida, Montana, or Ohio.
DEM Pickups: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee.
Gop nets 1 seat making it 52-48.

Is Ohio really at risk?

If I had to bet on it I'd say it's going to be 50-50; the Dems could easily win both NV, TN, and AZ whilst losing Indiana.

It's the safest one out of the four that I listed for the #4 flip, but it's certainly lower on the totem pole than Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey.