My current 2020 Predictions
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Author Topic: My current 2020 Predictions  (Read 1467 times)
Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« on: May 23, 2018, 11:24:47 PM »

November '16 Edition: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252115
March '17 Edition: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=260192
August '17 Edition: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=271292

These predictions are mostly still gut feelings, though I have somewhat considered the polling we have had and adjusted things in favor of dems overall due to Trump's continued unpopularity.

All of these are NPV predictions of how the race will turn out in 2020, which may not be the same as the result of an election held today, and which may not be reflective of the electoral college result. The +/- by each prediction represents gain or loss from the August edition. A few obviously-not-happening matchups have been removed.

I can provide additional predictions upon request.
---------------------------

Trump - 53% (-2)
Warren - 42% (+2)

Trump - 50% (-2)
Kamala Harris - 46% (+2)

Trump - 52% (=)
Clinton - 43% (=)

Trump - 49% (=)
Sanders - 46% (-1)

Trump - 50% (=)
Gillibrand - 45% (=)

Klobuchar - 51% (+2)
Trump - 47% (-1)

Hickenlooper - 52%  (+1)
Trump - 44% (=)

Sherrod Brown - 54% (+2)
Trump - 44% (=)

Booker - 51% (+1)
Trump - 46% (-1)

Biden - 60% (=)
Trump - 36% (=)

Kaine - 52% (+1)
Trump - 44% (-1)

Chris Murphy - 49% (+2)
Trump - 47% (-2)

Trump - 48% (=)
DeBlasio - 47% (=)

Joaquin Castro - 51% (-1)
Trump - 45% (+1)

Julian Castro - 50% (+3)
Trump - 47% (-2)

Cuomo - 47% (-1)
Trump - 44% (+1)

Kander - 52% (+1)
Trump - 45% (+1)

Trump - 51% (=)
O'Malley - 45% (=)

Heinrich - 52% (+2)
Trump - 44% (+2)

Trump - 51% (-4)
Oprah - 39% (+5)

Trump - 52% (=)
Delaney - 44% (=)

Garcetti - 52% (+2)
Trump - 45% (-2)

Bullock - 53% (+2)
Trump - 44% (-2)

Ossoff - 49% (=)
Trump - 47% (=)

McAuliffe - 51% (=)
Trump - 46% (+1)

Trump - 51% (-1)
Seth Meyers - 45% (+2)

Jerry Brown - 50% (=)
Trump - 46% (=)

Deval Patrick - 51% (+1)
Trump - 46% (-1)

----------------------------

As done in the last edition, as a warning to Democrats to not nominate Warren, I am including matchups with her and some other potential republican nominees. Most of these would only happen in a scenario where Trump is impeached.:

Pence - 55% (-2)
Warren - 40% (+2)

Kasich - 61% (-1)
Warren - 34% (+4)

Cruz - 54% (+1)
Warren - 42% (=)

NEW:

Flake - 54%
Warren - 40%

Corker - 56%
Warren - 38%

Sasse - 53%
Warren - 41%


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YE
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2018, 11:30:33 PM »

I am going to go out of the limb and say that John Kasich would not beat Elizabeth Warren by 27.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2018, 06:28:51 AM »

LMAO at Biden crushing Trump by 24 points. Remember Rich Lazer?
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cvparty
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2018, 06:59:40 AM »

i love how warren is inherently doomed to lose by double digits to any republican
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2018, 07:00:30 AM »

If even Mondale didn't lose to Reagan by 20, there is no way on earth any of these would be worse than that.

This post is a joke.
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here2view
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2018, 07:12:31 AM »

This may be the worst post I've seen on here. We are all dumber after having read this, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2018, 07:15:22 AM »

This may be the worst post I've seen on here. We are all dumber after having read this, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Well, Wulfric predicted Ojeda would lose, so he's not really thinking straight.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2018, 10:10:10 AM »

This may be the worst post I've seen on here. We are all dumber after having read this, and may God have mercy on your soul.
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America Needs R'hllor
Parrotguy
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2018, 10:12:19 AM »

O boy this warning will destroy Warren's political future, now she's doomed
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kyc0705
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2018, 02:10:40 PM »

These predictions are mostly still gut feelings

See a gastroenterologist.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2018, 04:55:10 PM »

Brown is a good Senator and should remain there
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2018, 02:28:48 PM »

These predictions are mostly still gut feelings

See a gastroenterologist.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2018, 05:14:18 PM »
« Edited: May 25, 2018, 06:30:48 PM by Special K »

I agree Warren would not be a good candidate and would probably lose.

That’s pretty much the only predication I agree on.  Harris, Sanders, and Gillibrand would all do much better than you predict.  Oprah getting 39% is wrong, but I agree she would lose.

Also, while a Democrat could receive 50% or more of the vote, with independents...it’s almost impossible for Trump to get 50% or more. That would only happen if he saw a massive swing of Democrats voting for him—you won’t see that. He’s just too polarizing of a figure right now, even more so than in 2016.
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Da2017
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« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2018, 05:30:32 PM »

I agree Warren would not be a good candidate and would probably lose.

That’s pretty much the only predication I agree on.  Harris, Sanders, and Gillibrand would all do much better than you predict.  Oprah getting 39% is wrong, but I agree she would lose.

Also, while a Democrat could receive 50% or more of the vote, with independence...it’s almost impossible for Trump to get 50% or more. That would only happen if he saw a massive swing of Democrats voting for him—you won’t see that. He’s just too polarizing of a figure right now, even more so than in 2016.

Warren would be polarizing. I think Booker will have same the problems as Hillary Clinton.
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