Alternate Election: McAuliffe (D) vs. Gillespie (R) for US Senate

[Cabbage]

In this scenario, Hillary wins in 2016, leaving Tim Kaine's Senate seat open in 2017. As such, a special election is scheduled to coincide with the gubernatorial election in November.

Ed Gillespie, seeing a chance to battle for what is, in effect, an open seat, immediately switches gears from the gubernatorial to the senatorial election. Governor McAuliffe, in an ambitious move, announces he will contest for the Democratic nomination, and appoints a little-known figurehead to, in effect, "keep the seat warm."

Both men go on to win their parties' respective nominations, with Gillespie campaigning on his more immigrant-friendly 2014 rhetoric, rather than his more Trump-aligned 2017 OT rhetoric. McAuliffe, meanwhile, touts his above-water approval rating as proof of his constituents' support for him. He also raises the specter of Trump in an attempt to hold Loudoun County (which, as we all know, is key to winning Virginia).

So, what I'm wondering is...

1) Who do you think would win and why?

2) What would the margin be and why?

3) What happens in 2018 in Virginia as a result (the seat is up this year)?

[Lord Admirale]

Loudoun or Fairfax? Warner lost Loudoun in 2014 but carried Fairfax and the election.

Either way, Fairfax isn't flipping in this day and age.

[NewYorkExpress]

I think McAuliffe would have been better off in this scenario just running in 2018 against an incumbent Gillespie, who would have had no time to get entrenched.

Even in a GOP wave, I'm not sure Gillespie beats McAuliffe, unless Clinton's approvals are below 35% in Virginia.

[Yellowhammer]

Pure tossup, it would probably be within 2 or 3 points either way. If Gillespie could get within a hair of beating Warner in 2014, I think he would have a solid chance of pulling it off under a Clinton presidency.

[Medal506]

Gillespie wins just because it's a democratic administration

[😥]

if Clinton wins Virginia then McAuliffe wins 52-48. If Clinton loses, McAuliffe will win 50-50 (50.1-49.9). And in 2018 Gillespie wins 51-49, only through the red wave because the current administration-Democratic

[Politician]

McAuliffe wins in 2017 50-46 and wins in 2018 49-47.

[erſatz-york]

LOL, are the Democrats here on crack or something? Gillespie would win easily.