Which Democratic incumbent will have the weakest performance?
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  Which Democratic incumbent will have the weakest performance?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: See title
#1
Tom O'Halleran (AZ-1)		  
#2
Ami Bera (CA-7)		  
#3
Salud Carbajal (CA-24)		  
#4
Stephanie Murphy (FL-7)		  
#5
Charlie Crist (FL-13)		  
#6
Collin Peterson (MN-7)		  
#7
Anne Kuster (NH-2)		  
#8
Josh Gottheimer (NJ-5)		  
#9
Matt Cartwright (PA-8)		  
#10
Ron Kind (WI-3)		  
#11
Other		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: Which Democratic incumbent will have the weakest performance?  (Read 1939 times)
mencken
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« on: May 23, 2018, 03:53:01 PM »
The choice is you
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2018, 04:14:49 PM »
All of them will win by 5+ points, but probably Bera
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2018, 04:22:49 PM »
Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2018, 04:24:16 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 23, 2018, 04:22:49 PM
Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.
LMAO
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2018, 04:31:00 PM »
Quote from: MassGuy on May 23, 2018, 04:14:49 PM
All of them will win by 5+ points, but probably Bera
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2018, 04:52:13 PM »
Quote from: MassGuy on May 23, 2018, 04:24:16 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 23, 2018, 04:22:49 PM
Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.
LMAO

I’d just love to see everyone’s reaction when Limo ends up being mostly right with his predictions
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2018, 04:55:21 PM »
Peterson wins by 3 I think. He'll get hit hard by not voting the tax bill or farm bill, but will still make it.

All other people besides Peterson and Cartwright are beyond safe and will win by 7+.
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Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2018, 05:16:23 PM »
Salud Carbajal will win by at least 10%. (I live in CA-24)
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2018, 05:25:15 PM »
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on May 23, 2018, 04:52:13 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on May 23, 2018, 04:24:16 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 23, 2018, 04:22:49 PM
Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.
LMAO

I’d just love to see everyone’s reaction when Limo ends up being mostly right with his predictions
Well it is sad that you never will.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2018, 05:41:36 PM »
Bera. He had a scandal a few years ago, and has under-performed ever since.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2018, 05:44:45 PM »
Charlie Crist doesn't even have a serious challenger... both of his opponents are jokes
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2018, 05:46:14 PM »
Quote from: Jalaketu West on May 23, 2018, 05:25:15 PM
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on May 23, 2018, 04:52:13 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on May 23, 2018, 04:24:16 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 23, 2018, 04:22:49 PM
Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.
LMAO

I’d just love to see everyone’s reaction when Limo ends up being mostly right with his predictions
Well it is sad that you never will.
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ethanforamerica
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2018, 06:12:50 PM »
I'm saying Bera but I think he'll win by around the Cook PVI in the district (D +3). His 2016 challenger was a gay marriage supporting, DACA defending, Planned Parenthood protecting Republican. It's too bad he's not running again. Bera is the only dem so he'll definitely face a Republican in the GE. According to the punditry, it's likely D at worst.
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Strudelcutie4427
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2018, 06:20:10 PM »
Peterson will lose
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2018, 06:21:21 PM »
Quote from: ethanforamerica on May 23, 2018, 06:12:50 PM
I'm saying Bera but I think he'll win by around the Cook PVI in the district (D +3). His 2016 challenger was a gay marriage supporting, DACA defending, Planned Parenthood protecting Republican. It's too bad he's not running again. Bera is the only dem so he'll definitely face a Republican in the GE. According to the punditry, it's likely D at worst.
The only poll with Bera shows him above water. Yona Barash and Andrew Grant are far more conservative than Scott Jones, the 2016 GOP nominee.
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2018, 06:22:58 PM »
« Edited: May 23, 2018, 07:04:19 PM by westroopnerd »
Surprised by all the people saying Bera. He's not the greatest incumbent, yes, but his district isn't super R and he's survived tough elections before. My vote goes to O'Halleran, for what it's worth.
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mencken
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« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2018, 06:29:59 PM »
Quote from: MassGuy on May 23, 2018, 04:24:16 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 23, 2018, 04:22:49 PM
Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.
LMAO

FWIW, Cartwright's opponent is the only one of this batch that seems to have decent fundraising, at least according to the FEC.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2018, 06:43:16 PM »
Quote from: Singletxguyforfun on May 23, 2018, 04:52:13 PM
Quote from: MassGuy on May 23, 2018, 04:24:16 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on May 23, 2018, 04:22:49 PM
Voted Bera, but I think Cartwright's race is currently Tossup/Tilt R and FL-07 is a Tossup as well.
LMAO

I’d just love to see everyone’s reaction when Limo ends up being mostly right with his predictions

The problem is that his predictions are NEVER right, bud.
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ethanforamerica
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« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2018, 06:48:10 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on May 23, 2018, 06:21:21 PM
Quote from: ethanforamerica on May 23, 2018, 06:12:50 PM
I'm saying Bera but I think he'll win by around the Cook PVI in the district (D +3). His 2016 challenger was a gay marriage supporting, DACA defending, Planned Parenthood protecting Republican. It's too bad he's not running again. Bera is the only dem so he'll definitely face a Republican in the GE. According to the punditry, it's likely D at worst.
The only poll with Bera shows him above water. Yona Barash and Andrew Grant are far more conservative than Scott Jones, the 2016 GOP nominee.

Jones also had more name rec. he was the Sacramento County Sherriff. How was the poll relevant though except in broader terms about Bera? Above water and safe are different (see Mark Begich).
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2018, 07:00:15 PM »
You hope, but he won't.
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Sestak
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« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2018, 07:03:00 PM »

FTFY
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2018, 07:07:03 PM »
Please, absolutely not Peterson. Peterson is the epitome of a strong incumbent in an R district. He's likelier to win than Atlas Queen Heitkamp anyway.
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #22 on: May 24, 2018, 01:27:48 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on May 23, 2018, 07:07:03 PM
Please, absolutely not Peterson. Peterson is the epitome of a strong incumbent in an R district. He's likelier to win than Atlas Queen Heitkamp anyway.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #23 on: May 24, 2018, 03:33:33 AM »
Ami Bera is a pretty lackluster incumbent who barely manages to win in a district that’s not even Republican. It’s been 6 years now and he’s still not entrenched like others in his position (see Elizabeth Esty pre-scandal).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: May 24, 2018, 10:36:09 AM »
Almost certainly Peterson, wouldn’t be surprised if he lost (although he’s the slight favorite for now).
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