Forrester down by 4% according to Quinnipiac.

[Moooooo]

Forrester down by 4% according to Quinnipiac.

September 28, 2005 - Forrester Narrows Corzine's Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Is Ahead On Property Tax, Corruption Issue

Republican Douglas Forrester has narrowed the gap with Democratic U. S. Sen. Jon Corzine in the race for Governor of New Jersey and now trails 48 - 44 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Eight percent are undecided.

 This compares to a 50 - 40 percent Corzine lead among likely voters in an August 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 41 percent of likely voters list taxes, including 26 percent who list property taxes, as the most important issue in the Governor's race. For 12 percent of voters, honesty/corruption is most important.

New Jersey likely voters say 43 - 39 percent that Forrester would do a better job reducing property taxes. But voters say 46 - 39 percent that Corzine would do a better job dealing with the state budget crisis, and 44 - 41 percent that the Democrat would do a better job on taxes in general.

Voters say 40 - 38 percent, a tie, that Forrester would do a better job ending corruption. Men say 50 - 35 percent that the Republican would do a better job.

"Doug Forrester has turned this election into a horse race because voters - men in particular - narrowly believe he can better solve the two hottest issues in the campaign - corruption and property taxes," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Asked specifically about government corruption, 60 percent of New Jersey voters say it's a "very serious" problem, with 30 percent who say "somewhat serious."

Looking at corruption in government, 44 percent of likely voters see Corzine as part of the solution, while 37 percent see him as part of the problem. Forrester is part of the solution, 52 percent say, while 19 percent see him as part of the problem.

"Many voters did not focus on this election until after Labor Day and when they did they saw a Republican contender with more substance than they expected. Doug Forrester may not have as many millions to spend as Sen. Corzine, but it appears he has enough to get his message across. But don't forget that New Jersey is a Democratic state, as a lot of strong Republican candidates from President Bush on down have learned the hard way," Richards added.

New Jersey likely voters give Forrester a 39 - 16 percent favorability rating, with 25 percent mixed and 20 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Corzine gets a 42 - 22 percent favorability rating, with 26 percent mixed and 10 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

[Sam Spade]

Still within MOE of previous numbers from Quinnipiac.

As with the VA race, more polls will tell us whether this is a trend or not.

[Keystone Phil]

As I kept saying, this race is not over....

[The Dowager Mod]

There's a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll out on the NJ Gov race. The numbers: US Senator Jon Corzine (D) - 48%, businessman Doug Forrester (R) - 38%.

[J. J.]

Neither of those polls are particulary good, though Quinnipiac is possibly "less bad."

[The Duke]

If Corzine loses and remains Senator, would Tom Keane Jr. still be the favorite to win that seat?  Or would he only have a shot at an open seat?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They had some poll with Kerry up only around 6 points in NY.

[Keystone Phil]

If Corzine loses and remains Senator, would Tom Keane Jr. still be the favorite to win that seat?  Or would he only have a shot at an open seat?

If Corzine blows this, Kean can beat Corzine. Kean is a stronger candidate than Forrester.

They had some poll with Kerry up only around 6 points in NY.

Quinnipiac is much more accurate when it comes to state level races.

[The Duke]

If Corzine loses and remains Senator, would Tom Keane Jr. still be the favorite to win that seat?  Or would he only have a shot at an open seat?

If Corzine blows this, Kean can beat Corzine. Kean is a stronger candidate than Forrester.

They had some poll with Kerry up only around 6 points in NY.

Quinnipiac is much more accurate when it comes to state level races.

But its also a different office.  My experience is that personality counts more for executive office and ideology counts more for legislative office.  New Jersey has had Republican Governors, but not many Republican Senators for example.

[Ben Meyers]

If this is a trend, we can only hope for the state of New Jersey that it keeps up.

[Keystone Phil]

If Corzine loses and remains Senator, would Tom Keane Jr. still be the favorite to win that seat?  Or would he only have a shot at an open seat?

If Corzine blows this, Kean can beat Corzine. Kean is a stronger candidate than Forrester.

They had some poll with Kerry up only around 6 points in NY.

Quinnipiac is much more accurate when it comes to state level races.

But its also a different office.  My experience is that personality counts more for executive office and ideology counts more for legislative office.  New Jersey has had Republican Governors, but not many Republican Senators for example.

And if we go by that, Kean is still a better candidate. If you call yourself a "Kean Republican" it is clearly very helpful in the state in terms of ideology.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How many NJ polls showed Bush w/in the MoE in September 2004, and how much did he acutally lose by?  Races in New Jersey always appear closer in polls than they end up being.

[ATFFL]

How many NJ polls showed Bush w/in the MoE in September 2004, and how much did he acutally lose by?  Races in New Jersey always appear closer in polls than they end up being.

A few and 6.68%.

Quite a few pollsters had the race at Kerry +4-7 in the lst few weeks.  Heck, on 10-25 and Quinnipiac and Strategic Vision each released polls that showed a tie.  That was SV's last poll, while the Big Q would realease one more showing Kerry +5.

[Sarnstrom]

It'd be funny if the GOP won NJ and the Democrats won VA.

[Defarge]

How was Quinnipiac in 2001?

[© tweed]

Neither of those polls are particulary good, though Quinnipiac is possibly "less bad."

Agreed -- Vorlon says Quinninpiac is the only University poll that isn't complete garbage.

[Moooooo]

It'd be funny if the GOP won NJ and the Democrats won VA.

Thats a definite possibility.  Both candidates are peaking at the right time.

[ATFFL]

How was Quinnipiac in 2001?

Irrelevant.  Uni polls change the bulk of their staff over the course of four years.

[Democratic Hawk]

It'd be funny if the GOP won NJ and the Democrats won VA.

I'd prefer it if the Democrats won both

Dave