Is John Cornyn Vulnerable in 2020?
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  Is John Cornyn Vulnerable in 2020?		 « previous next »
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Question: Is John Cornyn Vulnerable
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Author Topic: Is John Cornyn Vulnerable in 2020?  (Read 1013 times)
Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸
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« on: May 20, 2018, 01:52:24 PM »
As Texas is starting to trend Blue at a faster rate, how vulnerable would Senator Cornyn be in 2020? Could he lose?
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McGovernForPrez
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2018, 02:01:40 PM »
If Trump is still president I think it's entirely possible. Texas is a state that's growing very rapidly and considering the rate that young people are moving in I don't think it's unreasonable. We'll honestly have to see how 2018 goes for Beto first though.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2018, 02:02:55 PM »
It's going to have to be a bad year for Republicans in order for Cornyn to lose.
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2018, 02:05:32 PM »
If Ted Cruz loses in 2018, than yes, absolutely.
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Rhenna
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2018, 02:18:58 PM »
No. Cornyn is far more entrenched than Cruz. And once Beto loses, Democrats will still have a weak bench and will struggle to find a good enough candidate to even make the race competitive.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2018, 02:51:22 PM »
probably not. Not that I think Cornyn is incredibly formidable, but Texas Democrats are still not up to it yet. Call me in 2026 and I'd think Cornyn or whoever primaries him is beatable for sure.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2018, 02:58:11 PM »
If Cruz loses then yes, whichever Castro brother doesn't run for President has a decent shot of beating Cornyn.

If Cruz wins then Cornyn is probably safe.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2018, 03:22:40 PM »
Quote from: Redneck Conservative on May 20, 2018, 02:02:55 PM
It's going to have to be a terrible year for Republicans in order for Cornyn to lose.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2018, 03:50:44 PM »
It is pretty unlikely that Cornyn will be vulnerable. Even in some hypothetical mammoth Democratic wave in which Texas were competitive on the Presidential level, Cornyn would be likely to outperform Trump by a decent amount.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2018, 04:09:47 PM »
Let's see if Beto gets within 5% of Cruz or better first.  If he does, then yes.  It also wouldn't surprise me if Cornyn retires in 2020 (particularly if Cruz gets Mark Warnered), in which case the open seat could be quite competitive.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2018, 04:10:16 PM »
He's finished in 2020
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KingSweden
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2018, 05:01:34 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on May 20, 2018, 02:51:22 PM
probably not. Not that I think Cornyn is incredibly formidable, but Texas Democrats are still not up to it yet. Call me in 2026 and I'd think Cornyn or whoever primaries him is beatable for sure.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2018, 07:22:25 PM »
At the moment, No, but ask me again if Beto actually comes close to beating Cruz.
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Peanut
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2018, 07:41:18 PM »
It would take another 1932 for Cornyn to be vulnerable. Ask me after we see how Cruz does, though.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2018, 07:56:21 PM »
Would this be like Dick Durbin being vulnerable because Mark Kirk won in 2010?
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Ye We Can
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2018, 09:13:35 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on May 20, 2018, 07:56:21 PM
Would this be like Dick Durbin being vulnerable because Mark Kirk won in 2010?

Basically this. Cornyn isn't Cruz. The Democrat has to be winning Texas by more than 5 imo, and I don't even think that would be enough.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2018, 09:19:34 PM »
In a non retirement scenario, probably not. If he does, send Cuellar in, and make it tossup-tilt D.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2018, 09:32:17 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2018, 10:05:23 PM by Tartarus Sauce »
Probably not, he's definitely not as vulnerable as Cruz is. AK, MT, CO, IA, KS (Roberts retires), OK (Inhofe retires), Georgia, South Carolina (Graham gets primaried), NC, TN (Alexander retires), KY, and ME (Collins retires) would all flip to the Democrats before Cornyn goes down. In other words, as has already said by others, 2020 would have to be an utter catastrophe for Cornyn to lose because Democrats would be getting a supermajority in the Senate under that scenario, although if Trump is on the ticket again in 2020 it can't be ruled out as a possibility.

That being said, TX would fall to the Democrats before ID, WY, SD, NE, AR, LA, WV or MS if Hyde-Smith wins in 2018, so he's not the safest of Republican incumbents either.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2018, 09:37:42 PM »
Even if Texas Trended blue, he would be entrenched enough to survive. Texas will never be a reverse Arkansas and Cornyn is no Pryor.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2018, 11:43:29 PM »
No one here is considering the possibility Cornyn retires in ‘20? Really?
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Lamda
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« Reply #20 on: May 21, 2018, 01:29:53 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2018, 02:01:30 AM by Lamda »
Quote from: THE BuckeyeNut on May 20, 2018, 11:43:29 PM
No one here is considering the possibility Cornyn retires in ‘20? Really?
He arleady said that he is running.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #21 on: May 21, 2018, 04:02:23 PM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on May 20, 2018, 09:37:42 PM
Even if Texas Trended blue, he would be entrenched enough to survive. Texas will never be a reverse Arkansas and Cornyn is no Pryor.

He won in 2014 with a 33% turnout. Plenty of voters who could give him the boot
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2018, 01:43:57 AM »
Doubtful, even if Cruz loses. It's likely R. Honestly, I don't think TX is yet ready to elect a Dem statewide. Maybe in 2024 or beyond.
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OBD
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« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2018, 01:19:54 PM »
Likely R.
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