N U T: A 2020 Election coverage mini-TL

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I got bored, and really wanted to do an election night coverage. however, that's not coming for a while with my Socialist America TL. So, here's a TL for atlas D's to look at with one hand.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Anchor 1:Hello, and welcome to election night 2020. It is 7:05 PM, and polls closed in the following states just a few minutes ago. 

Anchor 2: We can immediately call the following states in the Presidential Election:

Vermont: SANDERS WIN
<1% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 70.58%
Trump/Pence: 24.25%
Kreml/West: 2.22%
Other: 2.95%

Kentucky: TRUMP WIN
1% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 61.33%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 34.98%
Other: 3.69%

Anchor 1: We'll get to the downballot races after the break.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Anchor 2: We're back. It is 7:10 PM, and we're going to take a look at the senate and governor races.

Georgia Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
4% Reporting
Fmr. State House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams: 51.11%
Senator David Perdue: 46.79%
Other: 2.1%

Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost the governor's race in 2018, is handily leading incumbent Senator David Perdue. There is a narrow Democratic counting bias thus far, but it's not enough to make up the difference for Perdue so far.


South Carolina Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
3% Reporting
Senator Lindsay Graham: 50.11%
Congressman Dmitri Cherny: 48.23%
Other: 1.66%

Dmitri Cherny, who pulled off an upset by beating incumbent Mark Sanford in the open Republican Primary in 2018, switched parties almost immediately after being sworn in. He is a large Sanders ally, and despite a Republican counting bias so far, he is only 2% behind.

Kentucky Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
1% Reporting
Senator Mitch McConnell: 61.34%
State SOS Alison Grimes: 37.63%
Other: 1.03%

A rematch from 2014, Alison Grimes has been leading in polls due to the incumbent Senator's unpopularity. There is currently a heavy Republican counting bias.

Virginia Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC HOLD
3% Reporting
Fmr. Congresswoman Barbara Comstock: 50.22%
Senator Mark Warner: 47.58%
Other: 2.20%

Senator Warner has easily won re-election as Comstock won in a mediocre primary field, and was considered highly unlikely to win. There is currently a Republican counting bias, but Warner is holding well against that.

Indiana Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
2% Reporting
Governor Eric Holcombe: 50.42%
Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 48.28%
Other: 1.20%

A close race in a somewhat red state, popular South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg is giving Governor Holcombe a run for his money.

Vermont Gubernatorial Election: PROGRESSIVE GAIN
15% Reporting
Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman: 55.74%
Governor Phil Scott: 42.96%
Other: 1.30%

Another interesting result, and a surprisingly early call, we can clearly project that David Zuckerman will be elected Governor of Vermont. He did not accept the Democratic Party's nomination, and is the first non-independent 3rd Party governor elected since Jesse Ventura was elected Governor of Minnesota in 1998.

Here's a map of the results so far!
(<30% Ind is 3rd Party gain)

Governor:

Senate:

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It's 7:23 PM, and we have another call, this time from the Presidential front, an extremely early call:

Virginia Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
21% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 53.21%
Trump/Pence: 44.22%
Other: 2.57%

Much of the heavily republican appalachia area in the state has already been counted, and Sanders is ahead thanks to the NoVA votes coming in now. He is comfortably ahead of Trump, and so we are calling these 13 electoral votes for him.

The presidential map looks like this right now:

Sanders/Klobuchar: 16 EV's, 52.21%
Trump/Pence: 8 EV's, 44.89%
Others: 2.90%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It is 7:30, and the following states have closed their polls:

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Here's our current numbers from those states:

West Virginia Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
8% Reporting
Congressman Richard Ojeda: 54.67%
Senator Shelly-Moore Capito: 44.27%
Other: 1.06%

West Virginia Gubernatorial Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
8% Reporting
Ms. Paula Jean Swearengin: 53.22%
Governor Jim Justice: 45.53%
Other: 1.25%

Richard Ojeda was originally considered to be likely to run in the Gubernatorial Election against the highly unpopular Jim Justice, but he instead ran for Senate, and urged Paula Jean Swearengin, who unsuccessfully attempted to primary Joe Manchin in 2016, to run. Her views are quite far-left for the state, but Justice is hated so much that his approval rating of 37% is one of the lowest in the country, causing her to get boosted ahead. Ojeda is considered the perfect fit for a West Virginian politician, and with this being a Democratic wave year, he's leading by a large margin. 

West Virginia Presidential: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
9% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 52.88%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 46.27%
Others: 0.85%

Although Democrats lead in the downballot races, Sanders is 8% behind Trump. He has certainly made the state more competitive, but this is likely to go to Trump unless Sanders somehow makes up for it elsewhere.

Ohio Presidential: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
1% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 67.88%
Trump/Pence: 30.45%
Other: 1.77%

Sanders is leading strongly in Ohio, but the state currently has a Democratic counting bias.

North Carolina Governor: DEMOCRATIC HOLD
3% Reporting
Governor Roy Cooper: 54.43%
Lt. Gov. Dan Forest: 35.87%
Other: 10.7%

This was a very close race until Dan Forest was accused of sexual harassment by 3 women five days ago. There is a huge number of write ins.

North Carolina Senate: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
3% Reporting
Fmr. Sec. of Transportation Anthony Foxx: 51.14%
Senator Thom Tillis: 47.03%
Other: 1.83%

Another close race. No considerable counting bias here.

North Carolina Presidential:  TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Sanders/Klobuchar: 49.98%
Trump/Pence: 48.87%
Other: 1.15%

Also quite close.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Paula Jean pls. WVa is looking p wack in this tl lol

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It's 7:53, and we have a call to make.

Georgia Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
88% Reporting
Fmr. State House Minority Leader Stacy Abrams: 52.43%
Senator David Perdue: 45.79%
Other: 1.78%

With only areas in Atlanta, as well as in the far north of the state left to report, we can call this race for Stacy Abrams. Good news for Sanders, as he's also leading, but by a much smaller margin in the state.

Georgia Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
88% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 49.87%
Trump/Pence: 48.55%
Other: 1.58%

That's 1 gain for Democrats so far.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

It's 8:00, with a huge batch of poll closings.

Let's go though the easy state calls:

D.C. Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
0% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Trump/Pence: 0%
Other: 0%

Connecticut Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
0% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Trump/Pence: 0%
Other: 0%

Massachusetts Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
0% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Trump/Pence: 0%
Other: 0%

Delaware Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
0% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Trump/Pence: 0%
Other: 0%

Maryland Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
0% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Trump/Pence: 0%
Other: 0%

Illinois Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
0% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Trump/Pence: 0%
Other: 0%

Oklahoma Presidential Election: TRUMP WIN
0% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 0%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Other: 0%

Alabama Presidential Election: TRUMP WIN
0% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 0%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Other: 0%

Mississippi Presidential Election: TRUMP WIN
0% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 0%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Other: 0%

Tennesee Presidential Election: TRUMP WIN
<1% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 64.87%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 33.13%
Other: 2%


Kansas Presidential Election: TOO EARLY TO CALL
1% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 48.97%
Trump/Pence: 48.85%
Other: 2.18%

Although this state is probably going to Trump, we can't call it at this time.

We'll be getting to the competitive states, but first we have a call from West Virginia...
West Virginia Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
76% Reporting
Congressman Richard Ojeda: 53.26%
Senator Shelly-Moore Capito: 45.23%
Other: 1.51%

A great gain for Democrats, and they now have 2 Democratic Senators in a state that went for Trump by well over 30 points in 2016. We still can not call the Presidential and Governor's races right now in that state.

Presidential Map:

Sanders/Klobuchar: 84 EV, 53.34%
Trump/Pence: 41 EV, 45.22%
Other: 1.44%

[MycroftCZ]

N U T

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Ok, it's 8:07 and we are going to call 3 states previously considered too close or too early before we go onto the close states for the Presidential Election, and then calling several Senate and Gubernatorial races.

New Hampshire Presidential: SANDERS WIN
12% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 54.43%
Trump/Pence: 42.13%
Weld/Petersen: 1.98%
Other: 1.46%

An extremely early call here, good news for the Sanders campaign.


Maine At Large Presidential: SANDERS WIN
20% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 55.43%
Trump/Pence: 43.01%
Other: 1.56%

Not an extremely surprising call here.

Maine's 1st Congressional District Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
28% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 62.34%
Trump/Pence: 36.12%
Other: 1.54%

We meant to make this call before, our apologies.

Kansas Presidential Election: TRUMP WIN
8% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 54.22%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 43.98%
Other: 1.8%

A good performance by Sanders in Kansas, but nowhere close enough to win.

Presidential:

Sanders/Klobuchar: 91 EV, 52.98%
Trump/Pence: 47 EV, 45.22%
Other: 1.80%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

We'll start with the states that have had polls closed for a while now:

South Carolina Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
93% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 49.01%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 48.88%
Other: 2.11%

Possibly the most surprising state so far, South Carolina may very well go to Sanders. However, the remaining areas are mostly in the counties of Pickens, Greenville, and Anderson, which are highly Republican. We still can't call the race at this time.


Georgia Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
98% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 49.26%
Trump/Pence: 49.23%
Other: 1.51%

This is possibly the closest race of the night so far, Sanders is ahead by a slim margin with only 2% left to report. We obviously can't call this yet.

Indiana Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
90% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 50.01%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 47.98%
Other: 2.01%

Much of Gary and South Bend have yet to report, meaning this race could actually go to Sanders, a huge swing here.


West Virginia Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
96% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 48.89%
Trump/Pence: 48.87%
Other: 2.24%

Against all odds, Sanders is leading in West Virginia with only some areas in Charleston and Wheeling left to report. This is the largest swing so far.

Now we have a huge flip here:


Ohio Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
47% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 52.22%
Trump/Pence: 45.89%
Other: 1.89%

Sanders wins Ohio, a terrible sign for Trump as no republican has won without the state. 18 Electoral votes from the state going to him tonight. Although there is still a lot of votes left, many precincts and counties have swung hard enough for Sanders that we are confident with this call.

Finally, one last update on a too-close-to-call state:

North Carolina Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
38% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 49.02%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 48.76%
Other: 2.22%

Trump leading, but many precincts in highly democratic areas such as Winston-Salem and Charlotte have yet to report.

Sanders breaking the 100 EV barrier, at 109 Electoral votes now, with Trump far behind at 47.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Lowkey what I believe will happen

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Alright, lets get onto those other states.

Texas Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
8% Reporting
Trump/Pence 51.08%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 47.06%
Other: 1.86%

Texas has been getting closer and closer, and tonight shows that trend continuing.

Missouri Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
9% Reporting
Trump/Pence 53.43%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 44.76%
Other: 1.81%

This state, however, has been trending more Republican, but St. Louis has had no precincts report yet, so we can't say for sure how close it will be.

Florida Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
4% Reporting
Trump/Pence 49.42%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 48.76%
Other: 1.82%

A competitive race, as expected.

Maine's Second Congressional District Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
24% Reporting
Trump/Pence 48.99%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 48.96%
Other: 2.05%


Sanders doing well in this one electoral vote, and is likely to catch up.

Oh, we have a very early state call here:

Michigan Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
15% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 53.76%
Trump/Pence 45.03%
Other: 1.21%

We don't even have but a handful of Flint and Detroit precincts reporting, plus a lot of the U.P. and some rural areas. Sanders is very likely to win this.


Pennsylvania Presidential Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
9% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 49.44%
Trump/Pence: 48.42%
Other: 2.14%

Sanders is doing good, as expected, although right now not much of any major city has reported.

We can make one call from South Carolina:

South Carolina Presidential Election: TRUMP WIN
99% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 49.68%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 48.66%
Other: 1.66%

A narrow win here, spelling bad news for Republicans tonight in what should have been an easy state.

South Carolina Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
99% Reporting
Congressman Dmitri Cherny: 49.12%
Senator Lindsay Graham: 49.09%
Other: 1.79%

A nail biter here for Lindsay Graham. Cherny is ahead, but only by a tiny amount.
Oh, we have a call from West Virginia, we should have called this a while ago.

West Virginia Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
97% Reporting
Paula Jean Swearengin: 51.98%
Governor Jim Justice: 46.28%
Other: 1.74%

A great gain for Democrats here.

Sanders/Klobuchar: 129 EV, 53.12%
Trump/Pence: 56 EV, 45.19%
Other 1.69%

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

We can project the South Carolina Senate race now:

South Carolina Senate: DEMOCRATIC GAIN (RECOUNT)
100% Reporting
Congressman Dmitri Cherny: 49.106%
Senator Lindsay Graham: 49.104%
Other: 1.79%

Lindsay Graham has lost re-election by a margin of just 44 votes. He is likely to file for a recount, but as of now we call this race for Cherny.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Georgia Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN (RECOUNT)
100% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 49.26%
Trump/Pence: 49.24%
Other: 1.41%

A huge, huge flip here, Bernie Sanders has miraculously won Georgia by only 913 votes. A recount is likely, but we don't believe the result will change much.

Also, Arkansas recently closed.

Arkansas Presidential Election: TRUMP WIN
0% Reporting
Trump/Pence: 0%
Sanders/Klobuchar: 0%
Other: 0%

Arkansas Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
0% Reporting
Senator Tom Cotton: 0%
Fmr. Governor Mike Beebe: 0%
Other: 0%

Tom Cotton could easily get Bredesen'd by former Governor Beebe. This is likely to be close.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Current Senate Map (before safe state calls)

Democrats: 43 (+3)*
Republicans: 28 (-3)
12 Polls not closed
17 Not called

*Includes 2 caucusing independents

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Man now I'm glad I didn't use Parnell for Senate lol

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Ok, we have some easy senate calls:


DE: Chris Coons RE-ELECTED
IL: Dick Durbin RE-ELECTED
KS: Pat Roberts RE-ELECTED
MA: Ed Markley RE-ELECTED
MI: Gary Peters RE-ELECTED
MS: Cindy Hyde-Smith RE-ELECTED
NJ: Cory Booker RE-ELECTED
OK: Jim Inhofe RE-ELECTED
RI: Jack Reed  RE-ELECTED
TN: Lamar Alexander RE-ELECTED

Democrats: 48
Republicans: 32
Polls not closed: 12
Not called: 7

[morgankingsley]

I love how there's only like one time line in the universe of this forum that Trump wins two terms. Shows the huge bias this site has.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I love how there's only like one time line in the universe of this forum that Trump wins two terms. Shows the huge bias this site has.

Hey, this is just a NUT TL for D's after all, so don't get too worked up about this one.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I realize precincts don't report this fast but whatever this mini-TL is a meme-ish thing anyway.

We have a call from Indiana, two calls actually.

Indiana Presidential Election: SANDERS WIN
98% Reporting
Sanders/Klobuchar: 49.55%
Trump/Pence: 48.92%
Other: 1.53%

Sanders winning here in Vice President Pence's home state, a big flip from 2016, solidifying the likelihood of a Sanders presidency.

Indiana Gubernatorial Election: DEMOCRATIC GAIN
98% Reporting
Mayor Pete Buttigieg: 51.01%
Governor Eric Holcombe: 47.48%
Other: 1.51%

Higher turnout in South Bend has definitely pushed Buttigieg over the line, as well as Sanders.

[OBD]

Arkansas Senate Election: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
0% Reporting
Senator Tom Cotton: 0%
Fmr. Governor Mike Beebe: 0%
Other: 0%

Tom Cotton could easily get Bredesen'd by former Governor Beebe. This is likely to be close.

*reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee*

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

9:00 has rolled around, and the states in green have just closed their polls.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

We actually have 2 senate races to call, both holds.

New Hampshire Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC HOLD
43% Reporting
Senator Jeanne Shaheen: 52.34%
Fmr. Senator Kelly Ayotte: 45.78%
Other: 1.88%

Alabama Senate Election: DEMOCRATIC HOLD
23% Reporting
Senator Doug Jones: 47.65%
Representative Mo Brooks: 32.18%
Fmr. Justice Roy Moore: 18.92%
Other: 1.25%

Republican fears came to reality after Roy Moore announced his run as a Constitution Party candidate. He's taking a sizable chunk of the vote, and is certainly spoiling Brooks' chances.
In New Hampshire, Senator Shaheen has won once again.