Birthin' and Dying in America with updated state numbers

[DINGO Joe]

I think Tender may have had a thread on this type of thing, but without the search function functioning, I'm doing a new post.

The CDC-NCHS released the latest provisional numbers for births and deaths in the US and by state. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

In 2016 births fell 42,000 and deaths fell 2,000 (from Dec 2015 numbers)
In 2017 births fell 93,000 and deaths rose 62,000

The gap between births and deaths was 1.242 million in Dec 2015, 1.202 in Dec 2016, and 1.047 in Dec 2017.

Obviously, as baby boomers enter their prime dying years in greater numbers, the number of deaths will keep going up.  After rallying mid decade, the number of births have continued their downward trend. 

If you take 2017 and project it linearly. then births and deaths will be even in 2024.  If you take the change between 2016 and 2017 and project that going forward then the break even point occur in 2021

Of course it's back of the napkin stuff to do this especially with provisional numbers (final numbers are only available for births thru 2016 and deaths thru 2015) but combine the trend with efforts to curtail immigration (plus trying to throw out  Hondurans and other  provisional immigrants) and population growth seems set to hit a wall.

[Tender Branson]

The birth rate is down to 11.8 per 100.000 people and the death rate up to 8.6

In 1990, it was as high as 16.7, but then steadily dropped to 14 by the year 2000 and remained there for 5 years. In 2006-2007, it increased again to 14.3 and then started falling again each year.

As for the death rate, it remained virtually the same: in 1990 it was 8.6 and in 2000 it was 8.5 and then dropped to 8.0 by 2010 - but increased again since then (maybe because of the opioid crisis and people getting older, which is counterbalanced by better treatments for cancer and other health problems).

Natural increase is still about 1 million and legal immigration also more than 1 million, so the US should continue to grow at about 2 million to 2.3 million each year (+0.6 to 0.7%).

[DINGO Joe]

As for the death rate, it remained virtually the same: in 1990 it was 8.6 and in 2000 it was 8.5 and then dropped to 8.0 by 2010 - but increased again since then (maybe because of the opioid crisis and people getting older, which is counterbalanced by better treatments for cancer and other health problems).

Natural increase is still about 1 million and legal immigration also more than 1 million, so the US should continue to grow at about 2 million to 2.3 million each year (+0.6 to 0.7%).

Before the baby boom, you had the baby bust during the depression and WW2 which kept the death rate down, but now that boomers are filling the ranks of senior citizens a steady increase in the death rate is inevitable.

[DINGO Joe]

West Virginia is still ahead of Idaho in population but that obviously won't last much longer.


West Virginia       Births 18612   Deaths 23174

Idaho                   Births 22162  Deaths 13983

[Tender Branson]

As a comparison, final 2017 numbers for Austria were released today:

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http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/117063.html

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http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/117019.html

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http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/117065.html

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that 2016 was a leap year, meaning that births here (which decreased by 42) actually increased in 2017 when adjusted for the missing day* ...

* 240 kids are born here every day, so it means the actual number was ca. 200 higher than in 2016.

---

April 1, 2018 population results were also released: 8.830.487 (+49.389 since April 1, 2017).

Because non-EU immigration to Austria is waning off, this growth is mostly driven by an EU immigration surplus (+39.097), rather than non-EU (+14.413). Austrian citizens had a net loss of -4.121 persons during the past year.

---

Using these trends, Austria will pass 9 million people for the Oct. 31, 2021 register-based Census, up from 8.4 million in the 2011 Census.

[BenBurch]

The intense fall in births, here, and even more dramatically in Europe, is one of our greatest challenges, and one I think about a lot.

[Tender Branson]

The intense fall in births, here, and even more dramatically in Europe, is one of our greatest challenges, and one I think about a lot.

Europe is rather mixed on this topic:

There are several countries such as Sweden, Norway, Germany, Austria, Switzerland - where births increased a lot in the past 2 decades (mostly because of immigrant mothers, but not exclusively).

Also, in Poland births reached a new record level last year - because of generous child tax benefits.

Eastern and Southern Europe (excl. Poland and the Czech Republic) have seen large declines though - because of their crappy economies.

Other countries such as France, the UK, Netherlands, Ireland had upticks in the early 2010s, but births have fallen again by a bit.

[BenBurch]

The intense fall in births, here, and even more dramatically in Europe, is one of our greatest challenges, and one I think about a lot.

Europe is rather mixed on this topic:

There are several countries such as Sweden, Norway, Germany, Austria, Switzerland - where births increased a lot in the past 2 decades (mostly because of immigrant mothers, but not exclusively).

Also, in Poland births reached a new record level last year - because of generous child tax benefits.

Eastern and Southern Europe (excl. Poland and the Czech Republic) have seen large declines though - because of their crappy economies.

Other countries such as France, the UK, Netherlands, Ireland had upticks in the early 2010s, but births have fallen again by a bit.

Yeah, but the immigrants aren't Europeans.  I was talking about the European birthrate. 

[Annatar]

It seems the era of the US having much higher fertility then Europe is coming to an end, the US TFR in 2017 was likely only 1.77, just 10% above the EU level of 1.6, I think it is increasingly unlikely that the US will ever reach 400 million people, it will struggle to even get to 380 million if fertility continues to drop and life expectancy stagnates which will lead to a rise in deaths as the population gets older.

With regard to politics, I think the big impact will be that adjustments between censuses will get smaller as fewer states change rapidly in population size, by the middle of the century, the US will essentially have zero population growth meaning there will be very little redrawing of districts decade by decade.

[DINGO Joe]

The full provisional 2017 birth report was released yesterday

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/report004.pdf

A decline of 92400 and the lowest number of births since 1987.

Pretty broad decline.  Whites down 65000 Hispanics down 21000 Asians down 5000 Blacks up 2000.

California down 17000 Texas (surprisingly) down 16000  NY down 5000 Florida down only 2000 and one of the few increases in Hispanic births possibly in part from Puerto Rico which was down 4000 and had the biggest % decline.

For comparison 2016
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr67/nvsr67_01.pdf

[Tender Branson]

During 2017, my district (Zell am See) ranked 27th among 116 Austrian districts in terms of the birth rate:

The Austrian average was 10 births/1000 people, but here it was 10.8/1000 people.

In terms of the death rate, Zell am See district had the 23rd-lowest:

The Austrian average was 9.5 deaths/1000 people, but here it was just 8.2/1000 people.

In terms of natural increase, it ranked 25th:

The Austrian average was 0.5/1000 people, but here it was 2.7/1000 people.

...

In other words, my district was very close to the US result last year.