states that trend republican in 2020

[christian peralta]

Which state will swung more republican in 2020?

[redjohn]

I think the vast majority of states will trend at least a little Democratic in 2020, but in terms of places swinging Republican, Utah will probably have a decent Republican swing. DC will almost certainly swing Republican, too.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I think that most states will trend more Democratic in 2020. I guess like redjohn said Utah might lean more R but outside of that state, I'm not really seeing where else.

[Senator Spark]

Utah

[cvparty]

it doesn't work like that guys a vast majority of states can't trend democratic (barring some funky situation like solely california swinging 20% republican)

I'm thinking CA, MD, FL, HI, MS

[redjohn]

it doesn't work like that guys a vast majority of states can't trend democratic (barring some funky situation like solely california swinging 20% republican)

I'm thinking CA, MD, FL, HI, MS

Sorry, was thinking of swings rather than trends! Nonetheless, Utah will trend R, as will probably Mississippi, California (unless Harris is the nominee), and Maryland

[Politician]

TX, UT, and possibly MA and CA. GA and AZ trend less Democratic than the nation as a whole due to wealthy suburban Republicans "coming home".

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

TX, UT, and possibly MA and CA. GA and AZ trend less Democratic than the nation as a whole due to wealthy suburban Republicans "coming home".

No. California isn't maxed for the Dems yet. There is more room to grow in the Central Valley and suburban counties around LA. Just wait for Orange to crack 70% Dems. Also, I thing Georgia is voting Dem in 2020. Arizona is toss-up.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

MA. Trended D in 04’, 08’, 2012, and 2016. Probably reverts a little bit to the mean relative to the national climate in 2020.

MA actually trended to the right pretty hard in 2008 (~28% left of the nation in 2004 and ~19% left of the nation in 2008). Every Northeastern state except for CT and VT trended right in 2008, but MA did so the hardest. Of course, at least some of this can be probably be attributed to MA native Kerry being the Democratic nominee in 2004.

It did trend pretty hard to the left in 2016 though (~19% left of the nation in 2012 and ~25% left of the nation in 2016), so your hypothesis very well might remain correct despite the small inaccuracy.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hawaii is a very likely candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL, and Iowa definately.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

FL, and Iowa definately.

I agree with FL, but why IA? Trump’s approvals in IA are particularly bad compared to his 2016 margin there, and Clinton was generally considered to be a very poor fit for the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Booker and Gillibrand will make a play for OH and VA,  with Tim Ryan as Veep,  leaves Iowa out of mix.  But, that's not to say,  that Ryan can't bring Iowa into play.


Blue wall is MI,  PA,  WI,  CO,  NV, NM,  and NH. 

[Yellowhammer]

Blue wall is MI,  PA,  WI,  CO,  NV, NM,  and NH.  

Lol, just keep thinking this way. I'm sure Trump will never break through your indestructible rust belt blue wall! 2016 didn't really happen.

[Mr. Illini]

Utah is a good answer. Maybe Florida as well.

[Thunder98]

Utah is a good answer. Maybe Florida as well.

Especially If Pinallas County goes over the 50% mark for Trump. Which is a 50/50 chance of happening.

[dw93]

If it's a two person race, then Texas. Latinos in Texas are more conservative than average and the Black Vote isn't large, and I don't see why Whites in Texas would be equally or more opposed to Trump in 2020 than they were in 2016, given the fact that Trump has pushed a pretty conventional Republican agenda, particularly on Taxes, Regulation, and Abortion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blue wall is MI,  PA,  WI,  CO,  NV, NM,  and NH.  

Lol, just keep thinking this way. I'm sure Trump will never break through your indestructible rust belt blue wall! 2016 didn't really happen.

Of course he can break through,  but Democrats will have Democratic governors,  as reinforcements, unlike last time.

Tim Ryan can help in Iowa,  NV,  and Virginia

[Yellowhammer]

Of course he can break through,  but Democrats will have Democratic governors,  as reinforcements, unlike last time.

Well Pennsylvania had a dem governor in 2016 and that sure didn't stop Trump from winning it.
New Mexico and Illinois both had republican governors and Hillary had no trouble winning in either.
The party of a state's governor does not determine how that state will vote in a presidential election, and really has little direct influence at all.

[Person Man]

Of course he can break through,  but Democrats will have Democratic governors,  as reinforcements, unlike last time.

Well Pennsylvania had a dem governor in 2016 and that sure didn't stop Trump from winning it.
New Mexico and Illinois both had republican governors and Hillary had no trouble winning in either.
The party of a state's governor does not determine how that state will vote in a presidential election, and really has little direct influence at all.

That was the only close state that did!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course he can break through,  but Democrats will have Democratic governors,  as reinforcements, unlike last time.

Well Pennsylvania had a dem governor in 2016 and that sure didn't stop Trump from winning it.
New Mexico and Illinois both had republican governors and Hillary had no trouble winning in either.
The party of a state's governor does not determine how that state will vote in a presidential election, and really has little direct influence at all.

Walker certainly helped Ron Johnson win reelection over Russ Feingold.  Kasich helped his friend Rob Portman, to some degree it does. And Rubio helped Trump, with Cubans in Florida

Iowa will trend republican in 2020

[morgankingsley]

I think Minnesota and New Hampshire would flip blue actually. Utah as well. Georgia I say. Maine. And MAYBE Oregon, Washington, and California

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I actually expect a decent dead-cat bounce for Republicans in California.  Largely, I think most 2016 trends will reverse themselves in 2020, as Trump has been closer to Generic R on most policies.  So, the map might look more like 2012 with some uniform swing (with a few exceptions like VA and IA) than 2016 with a uniform swing.

[5280]

Utah
Idaho
Iowa

[RINO Tom]

Utah
Idaho
Iowa

I'd be shocked if Iowa trended R.