MO-SEN Missouri Scout: McCaskill +4

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.

So even though polls are everything for other races (like Florida), polls don't count in Missouri because it *reminds* you of a race from a completely different state with completely different fundamentals? What's the parallel here? Nunn did not "have a notable lead for a while". Polls were all over the place early on, with the average being a modest Perdue lead. Then she moved *slightly* ahead in October. Several polls this year have all shown anything from Hawley up by 1 to McCaskill up by 4.

Are you sure it's not, dare I say, bias, that's preventing you from rating this a Toss-Up?

Well, if the reality that Missouri was 22 points to the nation's right in 2016 is "bias", so be it.

[jamestroll]

Yall men on atlas are just afraid of a strong woman.

damn I wish we had more girls on here. site would be so much better

[DrScholl]

McCaskill will win re-election. End of story.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCaskill will win re-election. End of story.

She will not. End of story.

[cvparty]

Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.

So even though polls are everything for other races (like Florida), polls don't count in Missouri because it *reminds* you of a race from a completely different state with completely different fundamentals? What's the parallel here? Nunn did not "have a notable lead for a while". Polls were all over the place early on, with the average being a modest Perdue lead. Then she moved *slightly* ahead in October. Several polls this year have all shown anything from Hawley up by 1 to McCaskill up by 4.

Are you sure it's not, dare I say, bias, that's preventing you from rating this a Toss-Up?

Well, if the reality that Missouri was 22 points to the nation's right in 2016 is "bias", so be it.

in a presidential election. and a single one at that. yes missouri's gotten a lot redder in the last decade but it's a lot more democratic down-ballot, plus this is an incumbent in a dem-friendly year. she could still lose but she can definitely win

[Lamda]

Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.

So even though polls are everything for other races (like Florida), polls don't count in Missouri because it *reminds* you of a race from a completely different state with completely different fundamentals? What's the parallel here? Nunn did not "have a notable lead for a while". Polls were all over the place early on, with the average being a modest Perdue lead. Then she moved *slightly* ahead in October. Several polls this year have all shown anything from Hawley up by 1 to McCaskill up by 4.

Are you sure it's not, dare I say, bias, that's preventing you from rating this a Toss-Up?

Well, if the reality that Missouri was 22 points to the nation's right in 2016 is "bias", so be it.

Missouri is R+9,Conor Lamb won R+11 district and McCaskill has incumbentcy advantage.
She might lose but lean R?

[LimoLiberal]

McCaskill will win re-election. End of story.

She will not. End of story.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill will win re-election. End of story.

She will not. End of story.

Toss Up, Tilt R. End of Story.

And McCaskill is not a goner like yall say.

You men need to just shut up.

[cvparty]

McCaskill will win re-election. End of story.

She will not. End of story.

omg STOP trolling

[Sestak]

Kander was against an incumbent in a R-favorable year with a R candidate especially suited to MO on the presidential ballot.

McCaskill is an incumbent in a D-favored year with an R governor who has been credibly accused (even the heavily R legislature admits this) of blackmailing a partner with threats of revenge porn sitting in the Governor's Mansion in Jefferson City.

Kander lost by 3. How exactly is McCaskill in a worse position?

[TheSaint250]

McCaskill will win re-election. End of story.

She will not. End of story.

Third option: Everyone puts on their adult pants and stops acting like their predictions are the be-all-end-all, instead choosing to examine the race as it develops.

End of story.

[ON Progressive]

Kander was against an incumbent in a R-favorable year with a R candidate especially suited to MO on the presidential ballot.

McCaskill is an incumbent in a D-favored year with an R governor who has been credibly accused (even the heavily R legislature admits this) of blackmailing a partner with threats of revenge porn sitting in the Governor's Mansion in Jefferson City.

Kander lost by 3. How exactly is McCaskill in a worse position?

Also, McCaskill is actually in a better position right now than she was at this point in 2012. She was actually losing in the polls at this time six years ago.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This race is still Likely D.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This race is one of the 4 that I think are pure Tossups  - Indiana, WV, MO, ND. While I think dems will barely lose IN, WV, and ND, I think Claire's prowess as a campaigner, and Missouri's elasticity (as shown by Kander and Koster barely loser) will lead her to victory this November.

[jamestroll]

This race is one of the 4 that I think are pure Tossups  - Indiana, WV, MO, ND. While I think dems will barely lose IN, WV, and ND, I think Claire's prowess as a campaigner, and Missouri's elasticity (as shown by Kander and Koster barely loser) will lead her to victory this November.

MO: Hawley wins but its really a toss up and I have no idea.
Indiana: Complete toss up. No idea.
West Virginia: Manchin wins
North Dakota: I know MT Treasurer and I are in a minority here but Heitkamp will win very very easily.

You guys underestimate female politicians here.

[I’m not Stu]

Does Hawley win GOP primary?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does Hawley win GOP primary?

Primary has not happened yet.

[I’m not Stu]

Who will win the Republican primary?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Finally, some good news! Go McCaskill woohoo!

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Who will win the Republican primary?

He's the establishment pick, the most prominent candidate and far outraising the field. Come on. I guess it's fun to fantasise about Courtland Sykes winning or whatever.

[Oryxslayer]

Unlike a few people here, I feel confident pushing this race to Tossup. I also feel confident saying that right now, Donnelly is in more danger than McCaskill. Hawley is not a good recruit, especially when compared to the potential Wagner or Braun in Indiana. It is fair to say that the MO GOPs November chances depend entirely on how quickly the Greitens issue gets put away. If we are still discussing even the tiniest part of this scandal in August or September, then the GOP will be forced to watch as Greitens becomes the election issue in MO. They cannot win in that situation.

[tmthforu94]

Hawley won't win if the Greitens scandal is still dragging on in November. The sooner he is out of office, the higher chance Hawley has of winning. The story is completely dominating the news cycles, every time he is campaigning this is all he is asked about. Once he can start talking about issues (most of which the majority of Missourians agree with him on) his numbers will improve. I'm honestly disappointed to see Greitens numbers remain so high.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

McCaskill is my favorite Senator that isn't from the progressive wing. She's actually one of the best communicators of Dem policy in Congress and would be a fantastic candidate in most places. She deserves a better state than MO.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Kander was against an incumbent in a R-favorable year with a R candidate especially suited to MO on the presidential ballot.

McCaskill is an incumbent in a D-favored year with an R governor who has been credibly accused (even the heavily R legislature admits this) of blackmailing a partner with threats of revenge porn sitting in the Governor's Mansion in Jefferson City.

Kander lost by 3. How exactly is McCaskill in a worse position?

Whil I do think that McCaskill is in a better place than Kander, it is also worth mentioning that Kander is a much better candidate than her as well.

[Xing]

Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.

So even though polls are everything for other races (like Florida), polls don't count in Missouri because it *reminds* you of a race from a completely different state with completely different fundamentals? What's the parallel here? Nunn did not "have a notable lead for a while". Polls were all over the place early on, with the average being a modest Perdue lead. Then she moved *slightly* ahead in October. Several polls this year have all shown anything from Hawley up by 1 to McCaskill up by 4.

Are you sure it's not, dare I say, bias, that's preventing you from rating this a Toss-Up?

Well, if the reality that Missouri was 22 points to the nation's right in 2016 is "bias", so be it.

Funny that you would only bring up the presidential race in Missouri, and not, you know, the Senate race, which was quite close despite 2016 being a year in which many things broke in favor for the Republicans. The gubernatorial race was also significantly closer than the presidential race, and Democrats have been improving on their 2016 numbers pretty much across the board, but especially in the Midwest. By your logic, ND and WV should be at least Likely R, if not Safe R. Dislike McCaskill as much as you want, but underestimate her at your own peril.

McCaskill will win re-election. End of story.

She will not. End of story.

Third option: Everyone puts on their adult pants and stops acting like their predictions are the be-all-end-all, instead choosing to examine the race as it develops.

End of story.

Surely you know how Atlas works by now.