MO-SEN Missouri Scout: McCaskill +4

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/ScottCharton/status/995758630455664644

McCaskill 48
Hawley 44

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

McCaskill may be the luckiest woman in Washington. First there was Todd Akin, now being up in a Republican President midterm plus MO GOP problems. Kind of reminds me of Ohio in 2006, Bush and Taft.

McCaskill is vulnerable by definition, but some Senators are just good at surviving close calls. Hell, Mitch McConnell is one if you look at his electoral history.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why are people calling McCaskill lucky for Akin? I guess she is lucky that he ran, but McCaskill also personally picked him out to be her opponent. That's a lot more skill than luck to me. She spent millions to make Akin her opponent through a clever ad strategy. That's more than luck. She is one of the strongest campaigners there is.

[Young Conservative]

This will pass once Greitens gets impeached

[Sestak]

This will pass once Greitens gets impeached

Except impeachment doesn't get him out of office, and I don't think he'll be convicted.

[Doimper]

Thank you, Erotic Eric

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This will pass once Greitens gets impeached

Republicans have a large enough margin in the State House, that I doubt there would be enough Republican votes to impeach a Republican governor in any circumstance.

[ON Progressive]

Why are people calling McCaskill lucky for Akin? I guess she is lucky that he ran, but McCaskill also personally picked him out to be her opponent. That's a lot more skill than luck to me. She spent millions to make Akin her opponent through a clever ad strategy. That's more than luck. She is one of the strongest campaigners there is.

I think she is both good and lucky, in all honesty. It did take luck for her to get Akin, even with the brilliant strategy to pick him out. Let's not forget he led in zero polls in the Missouri GOP primary.

Not only that, but McCaskill trailed in every single poll against Akin from March until the "legitimate rape" comments. She needed the luck of Akin making an absolutely horrific gaffe to pull it off.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why are people calling McCaskill lucky for Akin? I guess she is lucky that he ran, but McCaskill also personally picked him out to be her opponent. That's a lot more skill than luck to me. She spent millions to make Akin her opponent through a clever ad strategy. That's more than luck. She is one of the strongest campaigners there is.

I think she is both good and lucky, in all honesty. It did take luck for her to get Akin, even with the brilliant strategy to pick him out. Let's not forget he led in zero polls in the Missouri GOP primary.

Not only that, but McCaskill trailed in every single poll against Akin from March until the "legitimate rape" comments. She needed the luck of Akin making an absolutely horrific gaffe to pull it off.

I doubt that there was a 15% shift in the margins of the race just because of that gaffe.
Without that gaffe, McCaskill probably wins by about 5 points.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

This will pass once Greitens gets impeached

Serious question - how long will that actually take?

[Xing]

How can people rate this race Lean R or that McCaskill's doomed while insisting that polls with similar numbers in Florida "prove" that it's a Toss-Up? McCaskill might still lose, and her poll numbers could go down, but I wouldn't be predicting this race with any kind of confidence at this point. I think it's perhaps the closest Toss-Up in the Senate right now.

[OneJ]

If I could shake Eric's hand (I don't know where they've been) punch Eric's face and get away with it I certainly would do it.

But quick question: Has anyone been following the state auditor race closely and if so, was there any polling before this? It wouldn't surprise me if this mess is affecting Republicans downballot as well.

[Oryxslayer]

This will pass once Greitens gets impeached

Republicans have a large enough margin in the State House, that I doubt there would be enough Republican votes to impeach a Republican governor in any circumstance.

Do you actually follow this scandal. Greitens never had a good relationship with his legislature to begin with, they like the lt. Gov. Not that long ago a statement of support for his accusers was supported nigh unanimously by the chamber. MO Rs recognize that Greitens being a stick in the mid is their downfall, so are moving as fast as possible to throw him under the bus.

[jamestroll]

If I could shake Eric's hand (I don't know where they've been) punch Eric's face and get away with it I certainly would do it.

But quick question: Has anyone been following the state auditor race closely and if so, was there any polling before this? It wouldn't surprise me if this mess is affecting Republicans downballot as well.

Was originally low name Id so people went traditional dem Vs gop.

Now in about 34 days the race will get closer attention.

[Politician]

This race is a tossup, but McCaskill has the edge.

LimoLOLbral: OMG, McCaskill is done, she's only ahead by 4 and will be down 8 on Election Day

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Is this the same poll as a month ago or is it a different poll with the same result?

[DINGO Joe]

This will pass once Greitens gets impeached

Yeah, after Nixon left, 1974 turned out great for the Republicans.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Is this the same poll as a month ago or is it a different poll with the same result?

No, it was done May 9-10.

[KingSweden]

But what does Limo’s mind model say

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.

[LimoLiberal]

Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.

[jamestroll]

inb4 Atlas says this is Lean R

Some way.. some how.. I will get McCaskill's actual birth time.. and after that I can make a rating on this race.

Toss up/tilt r for now. State is very very Republican at this point.

[Xing]

Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.

So even though polls are everything for other races (like Florida), polls don't count in Missouri because it *reminds* you of a race from a completely different state with completely different fundamentals? What's the parallel here? Nunn did not "have a notable lead for a while". Polls were all over the place early on, with the average being a modest Perdue lead. Then she moved *slightly* ahead in October. Several polls this year have all shown anything from Hawley up by 1 to McCaskill up by 4.

Are you sure it's not, dare I say, bias, that's preventing you from rating this a Toss-Up?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Unless we start getting like McCaskill +10 polls, my rating for this race will stay at Lean R through the summer. I'm still feeling that this race will be GA 2014 - Nunn/McCaskill has a notable lead for a while, but loses it by the end of the campaign.

So even though polls are everything for other races (like Florida), polls don't count in Missouri because it *reminds* you of a race from a completely different state with completely different fundamentals? What's the parallel here? Nunn did not "have a notable lead for a while". Polls were all over the place early on, with the average being a modest Perdue lead. Then she moved *slightly* ahead in October. Several polls this year have all shown anything from Hawley up by 1 to McCaskill up by 4.

Are you sure it's not, dare I say, bias, that's preventing you from rating this a Toss-Up?

Atlas enjoys drawing parallels between unrelated races. E.g.: PA18 and GA06

[heatcharger]

Remember when the dumbs on this forum said she’d get Blanched for telling men to shut up or something?

Anyway great news — it’s imperative that Erotic Eric and his escapades stay on the minds of voters. He must stay in office.