Colombian presidential election, June 17 2018

[Skye]

Who are you voting for, Hash?

[Oryxslayer]

My prediction for the runoff today:

55.2% Duque
44.8% Petro

Turnout: 56% (high ... for Colombian standards)

I think it will be closer to 60-40, but with something like 5% blank votes. My point of reference is the 2010 election, where blank votes were 3.40%, and the Liberal/Center-right Santos ended up dominating.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls are closed.

[Oryxslayer]

298/97,663

Duque: 5951 53.11%
Petro: 4809 42.92%
Blank: 444 3.96%

[Hash]

At 7% reporting:

Duque 57.06
Petro 39.05
Blanco 3.88

Based on municipality-level numbers, I expect the gap to shrink a bit (not sure how much), but Duque is off to a very promising start.

[Hash]

22.4% reporting:

Duque 57.26
Petro 38.78
Blanco 3.94

Still expecting the gap to shrink, but not by a big margin. 99% sure that Duque has won.

[Oryxslayer]

Petro right now is losing Cordoba!

[Hash]

45% reporting:

Colombia's next President

56.36%

Petro 39.65%
Blanco 3.97%

[Hash]

68.7% reporting:

Duque 55.56
Petro 40.38
Blanco 4.05

The gap between Duque and Petro will be less than 15%, somewhere in the area of 12-14% I think. Turnout will be lower than in the first round, probably less than 50% and in the vicinity of the historical averages of 46-49%.

The voto en blanco was the niche of the país nacional if I've ever seen one.

[Hash]

84.5% reporting:

Duque 54.76
Petro 41.1
Blanco 4.12

43.9% turnout and counting upwards.

An election with few surprises: Duque wins. The polls were right (most of them). Bogotá to the left of the country.

Some surprises or interesting tidbits: Petro will finish with a respectable result, over 40% of the vote and losing by less than 15 points. The voto en blanco flopped. Bogotá will vote for the losing candidate for the first time since 1978. Valle will probably vote for the loser for the first time since 1970*

* unless you think Gustavo Rojas Pinilla won, #MisaelPastranaNotMyPresident

[Oryxslayer]

Petro really got taken for a ride in his home Caribbean, he didn't match the traditional left margins there. Meanwhile he dominates in the traditionally swingy Bogata, and using the flawed national swing, would be would be winning Boyaca and Cundinamarca if he was ahead right now.

[Hash]

93.3% reporting

Duque 54.28
Petro 41.54
Blanco 4.17

Margin should settle at around 12-13%, as I called it. I was a bit off on turnout, it should be over 50%, maybe nearing 51%. Decent turnout considering everything.

[Hash]

Petro really got taken for a ride in his home Caribbean, he didn't match the traditional left margins there. Meanwhile he dominates in the traditionally swingy Bogata, and using the flawed national swing, would be would be winning Boyaca and Cundinamarca if he was ahead right now.

Stop discussing Colombian elections as if it was a UK or US election. What are 'traditional left margins' in the Caribbean, considering Petro is the only left-wing candidate to have reached the runoff or performed as strongly in any election? National swings are not a thing in Colombia, for good reason. Bogotá has been to the left of the country since at least 2003.

[Hash]

97%

Duque 54.07
Petro 41.72
Blanco 4.2

t/o 51.44

[Oryxslayer]

Petro really got taken for a ride in his home Caribbean, he didn't match the traditional left margins there. Meanwhile he dominates in the traditionally swingy Bogata, and using the flawed national swing, would be would be winning Boyaca and Cundinamarca if he was ahead right now.

Stop discussing Colombian elections as if it was a UK or US election. What are 'traditional left margins' in the Caribbean, considering Petro is the only left-wing candidate to have reached the runoff or performed as strongly in any election. National swings are not a thing in Colombia, for good reason. Bogotá has been to the left of the country since at least 2003.

You don't consider the various Liberals like Santos 'leftists?' Certainly not true leftists, but if Petro is the first leftist to make the runoff, the you should acknowledge the center of the spectrum lies to the right.

I hate national swings, they are stupid. But they occasionally have their uses.

Bogata has never been this far to the left in the runoff until now - or am I wrong?

Yes, the Caribbean is full of bought votes, but you would expect the others to be pulling hard for their home candidate.  

[Hash]

Santos is not a leftist! Colombian liberalism isn't American liberalism, for God's sake.

[Oryxslayer]

Perhaps the better term isn't leftist but Anti-Uribismo then. Petro's map certainly correlates more with Santos's 2014 one, when he was the anti-Uribismo candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, back to data, it looks like turnout will come close to matching the first round, presently 52.9%

[Lord Halifax]

The voto en blanco was the niche of the país nacional if I've ever seen one.

What is the país nacional?

[Hash]

Map

[Skye]

I honestly thought Duque would perform far better than he did in Bogotá. You were right Hash, this was Petro territory.

Also, Duque got 83% in Venezuela. Fear of chavismo is real.

[SATW]

I honestly thought Duque would perform far better than he did in Bogotá. You were right Hash, this was Petro territory.

Also, Duque got 83% in Venezuela. Fear of chavismo is real.

is there a link to this would like to share?

[Dr. MB]

Well, that's an unfortunate result.

[Skye]

I honestly thought Duque would perform far better than he did in Bogotá. You were right Hash, this was Petro territory.

Also, Duque got 83% in Venezuela. Fear of chavismo is real.

is there a link to this would like to share?

https://presidente2018.registraduria.gov.co/resultados/2html/resultados.html

[Hash]

Full detailed map of results by municipality.



Full size: https://i.imgur.com/5BtdnTc.png

That's enough for tonight. I'll have some analysis and thoughts tomorrow, with more maps in the coming days and weeks.