If Virginia and West Virginia were reunified after the civil war

[President Johnson]

Would the Virginia-at-large be a swing state now? Or Republican-leaning? And what about the state level?

In 2016, for example, the state would have gone to Trump by a narrow margin of to 48.06% to 46.18%. Yes, I was surprised the margin is still so close despite Trump winning West Virginia 68-27% and losing Virginia only 50-44%. But I calculated it twice (see below). Under this scenario, the Democrat could easily win the entire state by winning actual Virginia with Ralph Northam's 2017 numbers (54-45%) and improving a little in West Virginia, say narrowing it down to 65-30%.

Random note on 2016: Trump would have still won the Electoral College by taking Virginia-at-large even if Hillary managed to take Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in addition to all other states she carried (except for Virginia of course). She'd be at 265 electoral votes under this scenario.


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Calculation:

Hillary: 1,981,473 votes in VA + 188,794 in WV = 2,170,267 votes for her in total
Trump: 489,371 votes in WV + 1,769,443 in VA = 2,258,814 votes for Donald

Total votes cast: 3,984,631 in VA + 714,423 in WV = 4,699,054 votes in both states

Hillary: 2,170,267 / 4,699,054 x 100 = 46.18%
Trump: 2,258,423 / 4,699,054 x 100 = 48.06%

* almost the national popular vote in reverse

Source: Wikipedia, results by state

[dpmapper]

Obama would have won it in 2008 but not 2012 (barely).  Clinton would have won it in 1996 but not 1992.  Obviously George W. Bush won it twice.  Seems like a swing state to me, roughly similar to where North Carolina is. 

[Adam Griffin]

I bet Obama would have won this hypothetical state in 2012; as-is, he only lost it by around 30k. Had it been one and the same, there's no way the WV portion of the state wouldn't have been contested like the VA portion, with tons of resources poured into it. There'd be field offices in towns of a few thousand people - just like in VA in 2012/2016. Because of that, WV wouldn't be a 70/30 result like it is today.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I really wonder what the economic (and political) trajectory of this state would be over the last 150 years. WV has been reliant on one or two industries for the last century, Virginia is a pretty economically dynamic state. I have a hard time seeing WV being as destitute today if they shared borders with Fairfax/NoVa areas.

[Sol]

I really wonder what the economic (and political) trajectory of this state would be over the last 150 years. WV has been reliant on one or two industries for the last century, Virginia is a pretty economically dynamic state. I have a hard time seeing WV being as destitute today if they shared borders with Fairfax/NoVa areas.

Why would you think that? It hasn't helped Eastern Maryland or SW Virginia.

[Canis]

Here's how it would have voted by raw vote totals from 1876-1948 (in 1912 I combined Progressive and Republican votes)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTjRYpSZcaJ2pHCu_af31Gew_tO6h_ehg2WQYLEQeq6rUzRjw7ihJaDZPhYAqgyhSOAzmRmQV64rH-f/pubchart?oid=1131853949&format=interactive
1952-2016
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTjRYpSZcaJ2pHCu_af31Gew_tO6h_ehg2WQYLEQeq6rUzRjw7ihJaDZPhYAqgyhSOAzmRmQV64rH-f/pubchart?oid=1803294946&format=interactive

[DINGO Joe]

Keep in mind that although Virginia always had a greater population than West Virginia that after the poll tax was passed in Virginia in 1902, West Virginia would start casting far more votes than Virginia until the Civil Rights Era.  The regional rivalries would have been phenomenal.

[King of Kensington]

I really wonder what the economic (and political) trajectory of this state would be over the last 150 years. WV has been reliant on one or two industries for the last century, Virginia is a pretty economically dynamic state. I have a hard time seeing WV being as destitute today if they shared borders with Fairfax/NoVa areas.

Why would you think that? It hasn't helped Eastern Maryland or SW Virginia.

Does being attached to a richer region really have much spillover effect if they're in the same state boundaries?  Upstate NY isn't exactly thriving either.

[nerd73]

IIRC Kennedy barely carries United Virginia in 1960, correct me if I'm wrong.

[Skill and Chance]

Keep in mind that although Virginia always had a greater population than West Virginia that after the poll tax was passed in Virginia in 1902, West Virginia would start casting far more votes than Virginia until the Civil Rights Era.  The regional rivalries would have been phenomenal.

Given the people who were running Virginia at that time, they would have modified the poll tax to also explicitly target poor white people in WV.  With this in mind, and coal not being an all-or-nothing industry in the larger state of VA, I don't think the Depression-era union activism in WV ever really takes off to the point of any statewide power (it didn't in any other Southern states with coastlines).  So the WV part of larger VA probably never goes Dem in the first place.

[Canis]

IIRC Kennedy barely carries United Virginia in 1960, correct me if I'm wrong.

Nixon carries it by 1k votes

[DINGO Joe]

IIRC Kennedy barely carries United Virginia in 1960, correct me if I'm wrong.

Nixon carries it by 1k votes

No, Kennedy wins it by about 2500 votes