The African Population Boom of the 21st Century

[Blue3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_population_(United_Nations,_medium_fertility_variant)


Sorting from greatest to least, in terms of UN projected population in the year 2100:

Nigeria is going to grow from 200 million to 750 million, and become #3 in population

The DRC is going to grow from 90 million to 390 million, and become #5.

Tanzania is going to grow from 60 million to 300 million, and become #7.

Ethiopia from 110 million to 240 million, becoming #9.

Niger from 24 million to 210 million, becoming #10.

Uganda from 45 million to 200 million, becoming #11.

Kenya from 50 million to 155 million, becoming #17.

Angola from 30 million to 140 million, becoming #19.

Mozambique from 30 million to 130 million, becoming #20.

Sudan from 45 million to 125 million, becoming #21.

Madagascar from 30 million to 105 million, becoming #23.

Zambia from 20 million to 105 million, becoming #25.

Ivory Coast from 20 million to 100 million, becoming #26.

Mali from 20 million to 90 million, becoming #27.


Other countries with huge population booms will be
- India (#1 at 1.7 billion... while China decreases to only 1.01 billion at #2)
- the USA at #4 with 450 million
- Pakistan at #6 from 210 million to 365 million
- Egypt at #12, from 100 million to 200 million
- Philippines at #15, from 105 million to 170 million
- Iraq at #16, from 40 million to 165 million

Like China, the countries of Indonesia (#8), Brazil (#13), Bangladesh (#14), and Russia (#22) will actually lose population... while Mexico (#18) & Vietnam (#24) only slightly gain.

And then we have Turkey at #28, Japan at #30, UK at #32, France at #34, Germany at #40, Italy at #49, Australia at #53, South Korea at #61, Spain at #62, Israel at #81, Norway at #109, Greece at #111, Finland at #121, for some reference.



Africa is going to experience a huge population boom, and will become home to about half of the total human population.

The African Union also has the potential to gain strength, and the AU already plans to create a common currency, central bank, and free trade area by 2023. It has also already shown it is capable of conducting military operations.

These countries are also industrializing at a rapid pace, and we may soon see an African version of the "Asian Tigers" like what happened with Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea.



What will be the impact of all this on international politics in the 21st Century?

[Green Line]

Population projections that far off into the future are not useful.

[Blue3]

Population projections that far off into the future are not useful.

You can sort by other decades too... 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090.

No projection like this is ever 100% accurate, but it's usually close. And the trends are clear.

There will be an African Population Boom, even if the exact magnitude of it is debatable. The question is, how will that affect international politics?

[dead0man]

Seems like it's more Africa's problem than mine.  Have they considered trying a better economy, that seems to stop population growth better than anything.

Also..

No projection like this is ever 100% accurate, but it's usually close. And the trends are clear.

this just wrong.  Show me some past projections that turned out to be "close".  'cause that loud nut from the 60s that just knew there was going to be mass starvation in the seventies

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is STILL raving about future population booms.  The only thing you can for sure say about trends is that they DON'T last.  Using "trends" to predict anything is a fools game.

[parochial boy]

Seems like it's more Africa's problem than mine.  Have they considered trying a better economy, that seems to stop population growth better than anything.

That's more or less precisely why these population predictions are ridiculous, the reason Africa's population is growing quickly at the moment is because economic growth has led to a huge reduction in infant mortality rates.

Unless Africans are somehow unique, fertility rates will drop to match this, as has happened everywhere else in the world (and is already beginning to happen in Africa - for example, Ghana's fertility rate has already dropped from 6 children per woman in the 1980s to 4 in the 2010s; and Ethiopia's has dropped from 7 in the 1990s to 4 nowadays).

[Adam Griffin]

Just wait until Thanos arrives

[Silent Hunter]

Just wait until Thanos arrives

Thanos would only put the world back to 1972 levels.

[Storebought]

It's also silly to expect the world's second largest land mass -- no, Africa is not smaller than Greenland -- to continue having a smaller population than India alone.

[Former President tack50]

It's also silly to expect the world's second largest land mass -- no, Africa is not smaller than Greenland -- to continue having a smaller population than India alone.

Most of Africa is either uninhabitable desert or uninhabitable jungles though. It actually makes a lot of sense for the continent to have a small population.

[Dr. MB]

Africa in 2100 will be significantly more developed than it is now, and I think population growth rates will slow.

[Blue3]

Seems like it's more Africa's problem than mine.  Have they considered trying a better economy, that seems to stop population growth better than anything.

1. Refugee crises

2. Who says it will be a problem? An industrialized Africa with such a large population could become a superpower.

[EPG]

Seems like it's more Africa's problem than mine.  Have they considered trying a better economy, that seems to stop population growth better than anything.

1. Refugee crises

Yeah. It seems unlikely that all 390 million Congolese people are going to stay in a country which has historically been subject to rapacious attacks from outside inciting conflict and civil wars, not just from Europeans and Arabs but even other African countries.

[dead0man]

Seems like it's more Africa's problem than mine.  Have they considered trying a better economy, that seems to stop population growth better than anything.

1. Refugee crises

indeed, a little Europe's problem too.

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oh, this is a warning for us?  Weird, but ok.  Good for Africa in that case.  Right?

[DavidB.]

This is a huge problem, mostly because prosperity will not nearly increase as much as the population. Former Dutch VVD leader Frits Bolkestein said that for their and our sake, European countries should start getting serious in spending development aid on increasing access to contraceptives in Africa, and I wholly agree.

[Frodo]

Setting the stage for the next great wave of immigrants to arrive at our shores.  

[Silent Hunter]

oh, this is a warning for us?  Weird, but ok.  Good for Africa in that case.  Right?

Yes. The US is in decline and one day the white man's time as rulers of this world will end. I just hope their replacements treat us better than we treated them.

[dead0man]

oh, this is a warning for us?  Weird, but ok.  Good for Africa in that case.  Right?

Yes. The US is in decline and one day the white man's time as rulers of this world will end. I just hope their replacements treat us better than we treated them.

I promise you they will not*.  You can still blame white people for it if you want, in fact, you'll be celebrated for the opinion.  Unlike people who have a different opinion.  There is no place for those people.  Sounds like heaven for someone marching in the 5th column doesn't it?



*thankfully it ain't going to happen.  The West isn't going away any time soon, no matter what the fear mongerers and the shame police want it to be true.

[Silent Hunter]

It's not going to be heaven at all, but hopefully I'll be there before it comes to pass.

Anyway, the US is built on a huge bit of hypocrisy. "All men are declared equal" declared the slaveholders.

[dead0man]

What?  Seriously?  Why haven't we been told about this?  Next thing you're going to tell me is that we took the land from brown people (after committing genocide on them no less!) and that some people call soccer something else!

[Tender Branson]

To those who think fertility is declining fast in Africa ... they are wrong.

As I have posted in my Global Census thread, recent census results from major African countries actually suggest that growth has picked up speed, not declined.

Virtually all African countries are growing by about 3% or even more than that - which will put a huge burden on the biosphere that is already getting destroyed heavily there.

Even the Arab countries in the North of Africa, which had declining growth rates between 1980 and 2005, are now experiencing significantly higher fertility rates and growth than before - mostly because of the spread of Islamism and its backwards ideology - sponsored by Saudi-Arabia.

Also, Africa is different than other poor regions on the planet where fertility has been falling: Most African men and women think it is desireable to have large families with 6-10 children, so the estimates shown in the OP are likely being correct.

This will be a huge disaster for the continent and the people there, biosphere and animals - but also for Europe, because it is likely that large impoverished masses will swamp the continent later on.

[EPG]

I don't think historic census results in many African countries can be taken as gospel, it would be better to use other sources to look at historic trends. Compare to the question "how many people live in Karachi".

[parochial boy]

Growth rates in Africa aren't increasing because of fertility rates, it is a combination of declining death rates + declining infant moratility + the first generation of children not to suffer from high infant moratility reaching child bearing ages. Fertility rates are a lagging factor, so tend to drop after the fall in death rates.

And suggesting that Africans all want to have 10 kids doesnt stack up. If you look at wealthier African countries like Botswana (2.8 children per woman); South Africa (2.3); Namibia (3.5); and look at the dramataic decline in places like Kenya or Ghana you can already see that Africans are just like the rest of the world, they start having less kids as they get older

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Horrid news. Someone educate them on birth control before they breed themselves to death.

[Tender Branson]

Growth rates in Africa aren't increasing because of fertility rates, it is a combination of declining death rates + declining infant moratility + the first generation of children not to suffer from high infant moratility reaching child bearing ages. Fertility rates are a lagging factor, so tend to drop after the fall in death rates.

And suggesting that Africans all want to have 10 kids doesnt stack up. If you look at wealthier African countries like Botswana (2.8 children per woman); South Africa (2.3); Namibia (3.5); and look at the dramataic decline in places like Kenya or Ghana you can already see that Africans are just like the rest of the world, they start having less kids as they get older

The problem is:

Namibia and Botswana are virtually the only 2 "wealthier" countries in Africa.

Besides, they have just 2 million people each - which means nothing because all the growth takes place in impoverished countries like Uganda or Congo, which are growing by 3.5% and have 40 Mio. and 80 Mio. people. The same with Nigeria and virtually all other countries.

This pattern won't change for a very long time because the base of young people in the countries is expanding fast and even if fertility declines the growth will be higher than before because of that expanded base of younger people ...

Also, South Africa is growing much faster again than in the 1990s, because the AIDS situation there is "under control" - leading to fewer deaths.

[Tintrlvr]

Growth rates in Africa aren't increasing because of fertility rates, it is a combination of declining death rates + declining infant moratility + the first generation of children not to suffer from high infant moratility reaching child bearing ages. Fertility rates are a lagging factor, so tend to drop after the fall in death rates.

And suggesting that Africans all want to have 10 kids doesnt stack up. If you look at wealthier African countries like Botswana (2.8 children per woman); South Africa (2.3); Namibia (3.5); and look at the dramataic decline in places like Kenya or Ghana you can already see that Africans are just like the rest of the world, they start having less kids as they get older

Easier to be moralizing racists, though.