The Midwest is declining, but Ontario is growing

[Storebought]

This may not seem like a one-to-one comparison -- the Midwest is but one region of the US, while ON is Canada's "Main Street" -- but the difference in population trends between them from the 1980s onward is dramatic. During the 90s, the Midwest seemed to be making a turn-around, but from 2000 or so it's been moribund, but ON kept growing throughout this period. Toronto passed Chicago as the largest city in the Great Lakes region (and is the 4th largest in North America), and ON now has the highest population in the region as a whole.

The typical answers for the Midwest's slump -- deindustrialization, migration to the Sunbelt -- don't seem adequate to explain this.
 

[Strudelcutie4427]

Where else would Canadians move? It’s the only somewhat mild part of the vast frozen empty space north of 50N. It’s not like they’d be flocking to Saskatchewan or the Yukon

[Storebought]

Where else would Canadians move? It’s the only somewhat mild part of the vast frozen empty space north of 50N. It’s not like they’d be flocking to Saskatchewan or the Yukon

Alberta and BC.

During the 80s, the oil and minerals slump depressed their economies, but that hasn't been true since. Even with low(ish) oil prices now, AB is nowhere as bad as it was then.

[cvparty]

Canada might be a more desirable place to live than the midwest?

[Skill and Chance]

Where else would Canadians move? It’s the only somewhat mild part of the vast frozen empty space north of 50N. It’s not like they’d be flocking to Saskatchewan or the Yukon

This.  It's the Canadian version of moving to Dallas or Atlanta.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Where else would Canadians move? It’s the only somewhat mild part of the vast frozen empty space north of 50N. It’s not like they’d be flocking to Saskatchewan or the Yukon

This.  It's the Canadian version of moving to Dallas or Atlanta.

More like Kentucky or Wyoming tbh

[jimrtex]

This may not seem like a one-to-one comparison -- the Midwest is but one region of the US, while ON is Canada's "Main Street" -- but the difference in population trends between them from the 1980s onward is dramatic. During the 90s, the Midwest seemed to be making a turn-around, but from 2000 or so it's been moribund, but ON kept growing throughout this period. Toronto passed Chicago as the largest city in the Great Lakes region (and is the 4th largest in North America), and ON now has the highest population in the region as a whole.

The typical answers for the Midwest's slump -- deindustrialization, migration to the Sunbelt -- don't seem adequate to explain this.
 

Are Hamilton and Windsor growing, and what about Thunder Bay?

[KingSweden]

Where else would Canadians move? It’s the only somewhat mild part of the vast frozen empty space north of 50N. It’s not like they’d be flocking to Saskatchewan or the Yukon

Vancouver is really the only other place, and it’s suuuuuuuper expensive.

Montreal is not a magnet because of... let’s charitably call it “parochial” reasons

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is Vancouver actually like NYC and San Francisco?

[Storebought]

This may not seem like a one-to-one comparison -- the Midwest is but one region of the US, while ON is Canada's "Main Street" -- but the difference in population trends between them from the 1980s onward is dramatic. During the 90s, the Midwest seemed to be making a turn-around, but from 2000 or so it's been moribund, but ON kept growing throughout this period. Toronto passed Chicago as the largest city in the Great Lakes region (and is the 4th largest in North America), and ON now has the highest population in the region as a whole.

The typical answers for the Midwest's slump -- deindustrialization, migration to the Sunbelt -- don't seem adequate to explain this.
 

Are Hamilton and Windsor growing, and what about Thunder Bay?

Thunder Bay has seen population decline, but not at the same scale as nearby Duluth. And the first two cities are thriving compared to what is across the straight strait or the lake.

You can take the example of Mississauga, a place that was hardly anything fifty years ago, is now larger than Cleveland or Buffalo. Sure, Mississauga is considered spillover from Toronto, but Toronto didn't experience the population losses typical of a Rustbelt city (you can say that Montreal has).

[King of Kensington]

Borders matter.

[Tintrlvr]

Is Vancouver actually like NYC and San Francisco?

It's certainly the business and finance center of Canada. That makes it a draw in the way NYC is. Ontario is a lot more like New York State than the Midwest in that way - dynamic big city that offsets a slumping rust belt portion of the state/province.

Edit: I read Toronto for some reason. Vancouver is really, really expensive, worse than SF.

[Skill and Chance]

This may not seem like a one-to-one comparison -- the Midwest is but one region of the US, while ON is Canada's "Main Street" -- but the difference in population trends between them from the 1980s onward is dramatic. During the 90s, the Midwest seemed to be making a turn-around, but from 2000 or so it's been moribund, but ON kept growing throughout this period. Toronto passed Chicago as the largest city in the Great Lakes region (and is the 4th largest in North America), and ON now has the highest population in the region as a whole.

The typical answers for the Midwest's slump -- deindustrialization, migration to the Sunbelt -- don't seem adequate to explain this.
 

Are Hamilton and Windsor growing, and what about Thunder Bay?

Thunder Bay has seen population decline, but not at the same scale as nearby Duluth. And the first two cities are thriving compared to what is across the straight or the lake.

You can take the example of Mississauga, a place that was hardly anything fifty years ago, is now larger than Cleveland or Buffalo. Sure, Mississauga is considered spillover from Toronto, but Toronto didn't experience the population losses typical of a Rustbelt city (you can say that Montreal has).

Again, points to this being Canada's version of the late 20th century Sunbelt boom in the US.

[Storebought]

So ON has the 'benefit' of experiencing Sunbelt type growth to mask the industrial decay elsewhere in the province. I accept that to the extent that the industrial decay wasn't nearly as severe in ON as it was in the rest of the Great Lakes or Upper Midwest. And in the Midwest at large, the growing cities (neglecting metro areas) are the most Sunbelt-y ones like Columbus and Indianapolis.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

If Canada was annexed by the US early on Ontario would be much worse off. NYC would still be the financial hub which would steal Toronto's thunder. Geographically Ontario would certainly be part of the declining Rust Belt. With a cheaper and much warmer sunbelt, people would be fleeing to places like TX,AZ or FL.  In Canada you can go west, but the west except Vancouver is much colder than Ontario/Quebec.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is Vancouver actually like NYC and San Francisco?

It's certainly the business and finance center of Canada. That makes it a draw in the way NYC is. Ontario is a lot more like New York State than the Midwest in that way - dynamic big city that offsets a slumping rust belt portion of the state/province.

I mean in cost of living,

[Skill and Chance]

The more interesting thing to me is Western Canada vs. the US Plains and Rockies.  The Canadian left does so much better than the US left on the prairies and yet there isn't really a Canadian Denver to speak of.  Maybe it would have been Calgary if it didn't become Canadian Houston first?

[pikachu]

Is Vancouver actually like NYC and San Francisco?

It's certainly the business and finance center of Canada. That makes it a draw in the way NYC is. Ontario is a lot more like New York State than the Midwest in that way - dynamic big city that offsets a slumping rust belt portion of the state/province.

I mean in cost of living,

Apparently it's worse.

[DC Al Fine]

Yeah wages are garbage relative to cost of living in Vancouver. I have an acquaintance in a similar job to me out there. He makes like $5k more than me but homes cost $1 million plus vs $250k out east.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So ON has the 'benefit' of experiencing Sunbelt type growth to mask the industrial decay elsewhere in the province. I accept that to the extent that the industrial decay wasn't nearly as severe in ON as it was in the rest of the Great Lakes or Upper Midwest. And in the Midwest at large, the growing cities (neglecting metro areas) are the most Sunbelt-y ones like Columbus and Indianapolis.

Windsor, ON which is basically Canada's mini Detroit is really struggling. Hamilton is another big manufacturing hub, but it's closeness to Toronto let's it have some spillover growth.

[King of Kensington]

Again, points to this being Canada's version of the late 20th century Sunbelt boom in the US.

There is no "Sunbelt" in Canada.  It's not like in the US where you can easily move from Cleveland to North Carolina.  

The growth in Southern Ontario in the post-war years had little to nothing to do with milder climates.   It's because Toronto is the leading eonomic center of the country (and the decline of Montreal's position) and the main immigrant reception center.

[RINO Tom]

Hate to nitpick, but it's not like the Midwest is losing population.  The only state that lost population between 2010 and 2016 is Illinois (-.23%).  It's growing slower than the nation as a whole for sure, but it certainly is still growing as a region (1.51%).  States like Minnesota and Nebraska are growing right around the national average, and the Dakotas have been well above.  Just sayin'.

[Storebought]

The Great Plains become Prairies in Canada, so the Dakotas and Nebraska are better compared to Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Those US states clearly benefit from a comparatively less severe climate.

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1.5% growth rate a year is moribund.

I think the major difference is immigration like the poster mentioned above, namely, high immigration to Ontario and low immigration to the Midwest. Without substantial immigration, Ontario would be worse off than any of the big industrial states of the Midwest (OH, IL, MI, certainly MO, MN, WI) or even Quebec, since Ontario's birth rate is lower than each of its US neighbors' (as far as I can find) and Quebec's.

From that perspective, the Midwest, not just Minneapolis and Chicago (and Detroit), should open itself up to more immigration, or even just migration from the rest of the US, like the way that TX has. I concede that might be a tall order*.

*Why TX? It has a harsh climate and is mostly flat the way the Midwest is. But Texans also don't care so much about "illegal" immigration, but that is a bridge too far for the Midwest.

[Hatman 🍁]

Only SW Ontario is 'Midwestern' anyways. Toronto compares to NYC and Ottawa to DC. I suppose the north can be considered Midwestern too, it being most similar to Northern Minnesota. So yeah, those parts of the province are also the one's that are stagnant.

I'd also exclude Kitchener-Waterloo from the Southwest, as it's similar to something like the research Triangle.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, and there's also a big racial difference. Our cities weren't ghettoized by redlining and white flight.