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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  NV-PPP: Rosen +2
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Author Topic: NV-PPP: Rosen +2  (Read 4016 times)
Bipartisan Bills or Bust
IndyRep
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« on: May 04, 2018, 03:08:47 pm »

44% Jacky Rosen (D)
42% Dean Heller (R, inc.)

Trump approval: 44/51 (-7)
Heller approval: 29/51 (-22)

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/new-poll-has-heller-and-rosen-neck-and-neck-as-voters-give-high-marks-to-aca-low-marks-to-trump
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2018, 03:10:25 pm »

Is PPP considered D-leaning everywhere, or just certain states or am I just remembering that incorrectly?  Either way, I think the disgusting stain of Trump will likely take Heller down, which is a real shame.  He's one of our better Republicans.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2018, 03:13:06 pm »

Keep it up Rosen!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2018, 03:20:54 pm »

Is PPP considered D-leaning everywhere, or just certain states or am I just remembering that incorrectly?  Either way, I think the disgusting stain of Trump will likely take Heller down, which is a real shame.  He's one of our better Republicans.

538 actually assigns them a slight R bias.

Anyways I donít think PPP has much to do here, NV polls always tend to understate Democrats
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2018, 03:27:00 pm »

The real numbers are actually

Rosen: 46%
Heller: 41%

When pushed.
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Make PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2018, 03:27:57 pm »

So apparently 43% of Nevadans think Trump is more like Darth Vader than the 24% who thinks he is more Luke Skywalker.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2018, 04:20:48 pm »

Yep, same as Cortez-Masto.

RIP Heller, RIP NV GOP, RIP Majority Leader McConnell
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President Biden
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« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2018, 04:38:49 pm »

It's Over for the Republicans in Nevada. Likely D.
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Bipartisan Bills or Bust
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« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2018, 04:43:43 pm »

The real numbers are actually

Rosen: 46%
Heller: 41%

When pushed.

Ah, maybe thatís why I didnít post those ďrealĒ numbers, even though I have little doubt that they will be closer to the final result than Rosen +2.
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2018, 05:30:14 pm »
« Edited: May 04, 2018, 06:03:24 pm by CityofSinners »

Heller has been close to 40% in both the PPP polls and the NV-Indy poll. Not a good place for a incumbent to be.
His average to bad approval and Trump being unpopular can't help. Heller should better hope Rosen runs a bad campaign.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2018, 05:51:38 pm »

All joking aside, if Heller's approval is -22, he's going to lose by a lot more than 2%.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2018, 06:15:18 pm »

10-20 point win for the dems.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2018, 06:35:17 pm »

All joking aside, if Heller's approval is -22, he's going to lose by a lot more than 2%.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2018, 07:09:31 pm »

All joking aside, if Heller's approval is -22, he's going to lose by a lot more than 2%.

People know they don't like Heller, but they're not fond of Rosen either. If it was a Clinton midterm Heller would have like 55% odds of surviving.
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brand_allen
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« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2018, 07:09:55 pm »

All joking aside, if Heller's approval is -22, he's going to lose by a lot more than 2%.

This.

If the old saying is "an incumbent under 50% is potentially in trouble," what's the saying for an incumbent under 30%?
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2018, 07:10:39 pm »

All joking aside, if Heller's approval is -22, he's going to lose by a lot more than 2%.

This.

If the old saying is "an incumbent under 50% is potentially in trouble," what's the saying for an incumbent under 30%?

Blanched
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brand_allen
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« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2018, 07:16:08 pm »

The real numbers are actually

Rosen: 46%
Heller: 41%

When pushed.

The normal way this should be done would be to ask, after the initial general election question, "but if you had to say, which way do you lean today?"

Unfortunately, that's not what PPP does here. They ask a series of policy questions designed to make respondents think of Heller in a different light, before then asking "Thinking about everything you have heard in this poll..."

I'll stick with the initial numbers for now as a result.
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YE
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« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2018, 07:17:16 pm »

Heller won't get blanched I don't think unless the rural counties flip and Rosen isn't the kind that plays well there.
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bilaps
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2018, 07:22:46 pm »

"low marks to trump". 44% job approval isn't a low mark for him
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Skye
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2018, 07:35:10 pm »

The real numbers are actually

Rosen: 46%
Heller: 41%

When pushed.

When pushed after being asked partisan questions. Seriously?

Still, Heller is endangered. Tossup. Close to Lean D.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #20 on: May 04, 2018, 09:36:29 pm »

Heller probably loses by 7 Iím the end
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2018, 12:31:40 am »

All joking aside, if Heller's approval is -22, he's going to lose by a lot more than 2%.

People know they don't like Heller, but they're not fond of Rosen either. If it was a Clinton midterm Heller would have like 55% odds of surviving.

Or they don't know much about Rosen. I wouldn't go as high as 55% at all, but case in point, this is not a Clinton midterm.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2018, 02:14:05 am »

Dems need to be a bit careful about excessive glee on these numbers....

Off-year elections in places such as Nevada tend to have much lower turnout among Dem Base voters....

Still, after reviewing the numbers from AZ-CD-08 'Pubs have a massive Anglo Senior and Upper-Middle-Class Republican problem in this part of the Country, so there's a decent chance that this alone could flip the US-SEN seat even with only a relatively modest bump from Latino-American voters and swings....
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YE
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2018, 11:51:21 am »

Heller won't get blanched I don't think unless the rural counties flip and Rosen isn't the kind that plays well there.

Or Clark County and Washoe vote like they did in 2008. Which I wouldnít discount the possibility of

Eh that was more of a one time thing that happened because NV of the housing crash, in which NV was literally the worst state hit by the housing crash. There's a reason Clinton did worse in many areas in the suburbs than Obama both times around.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2018, 11:55:34 am »

Is PPP considered D-leaning everywhere, or just certain states or am I just remembering that incorrectly?  Either way, I think the disgusting stain of Trump will likely take Heller down, which is a real shame.  He's one of our better Republicans.

Did you miss the part where Trump has 44% approval and Heller has 29%
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