Nashville Elections, May 2018

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In Nashville, we have/had two major elections this month on separate dates.

First: Transit Referendum, Today
The $9 billion transit plan that would have built light rail lines, a tunnel under downtown, and expanded bus service (but not have been fully operational until 2032 and that would have given Nashville the highest sales tax of any major city) went down in flames tonight, 64-36.

Second: Mayoral Special Election, May 24th
Following the resignation of Mayor Megan Barry, a special election had to be called.  Acting Mayor David Briley (a business Democrat) is the favorite, but he may have baggage in that he supported the transit plan that was defeated nearly 2:1 at the polls.  The rest of the field is very disorganized, so Briley will certainly finish first on May 24th.  However, if he is held below 50%, a runoff will have to take place in late June or early July with the second-place finisher.  Currently, most polls suggest that a right-wing former professor of law and political science at Vanderbilt, Carol Swain, is likely to finish in second.  Swain is considered quite controversial, but would have the backing of a lot of conservative commentators, notably Dinesh D'Souza, who featured Swain (who is African-American) heavily in Hillary's America.  Swain told a story of how she views Democrats and liberals as racist.

2015 mayoral candidate David Fox (a center-right hedge fund manager) declined to run.  If he had run, he would have stood a very good chance of beating Briley.  The 2015 election was considered a tossup by local media, although Barry went on to defeat Fox 55-45.  Since then, Fox has been a vocal opponent of the failed transit plan, and that combined with buyer's regret for Barry (after her scandals that forced her resignation) would have given him an excellent shot had he ran.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I haven't seen precinct maps, but from what the Tennessean is saying, the breakdown seems to be:

-For: Barry's 2015 base minus African-Americans
-Against: Fox's 2015 base plus African-Americans

So, essentially, it was white liberals and possibly Hispanics who live in neighborhoods that would have benefited most against conservatives, moderates, and most minorities.  In a city like Nashville where the white vote is roughly 50-50, adding minorities to a "conservative" position makes the election safe for that side, which explains why a mostly-conservative backed position won nearly 2:1 in Nashville.

[KingSweden]

I don’t really blame the black community for voting down a transit package that from what little I’ve gleaned did little to benefit them.

[TomC]

I haven't seen precinct maps, but from what the Tennessean is saying, the breakdown seems to be:

-For: Barry's 2015 base minus African-Americans
-Against: Fox's 2015 base plus African-Americans

So, essentially, it was white liberals and possibly Hispanics who live in neighborhoods that would have benefited most against conservatives, moderates, and most minorities.  In a city like Nashville where the white vote is roughly 50-50, adding minorities to a "conservative" position makes the election safe for that side, which explains why a mostly-conservative backed position won nearly 2:1 in Nashville.

Which makes the Mayor’s race almost interesting because Briley’s biggest challenger is a black conservative, Carol Swain.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I haven't seen precinct maps, but from what the Tennessean is saying, the breakdown seems to be:

-For: Barry's 2015 base minus African-Americans
-Against: Fox's 2015 base plus African-Americans

So, essentially, it was white liberals and possibly Hispanics who live in neighborhoods that would have benefited most against conservatives, moderates, and most minorities.  In a city like Nashville where the white vote is roughly 50-50, adding minorities to a "conservative" position makes the election safe for that side, which explains why a mostly-conservative backed position won nearly 2:1 in Nashville.

Which makes the Mayor’s race almost interesting because Briley’s biggest challenger is a black conservative, Carol Swain.

Swain will not get the same margins that Fox did with country-club type Republicans in places like Belle Meade, though, due to some of her past controversial statements.  But, the big question is whether she can bring enough new voters over for a conservative candidate to counteract that.  I'm happy she is running though!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Bump for the mayoral election tonight.  The big question is whether Acting Mayor David Briley can clear 50%.  If he can, he will win the election, but if he cannot, the second-place finisher will face him in a runoff on June 28th.  The conventional wisdom is that the most likely second-place finisher is former Vanderbilt professor Carol Swain.  But, there is wide range of possibilities for tonight due to the relatively low turnout (at least in early voting) and the lack of polling.  Most of Briley's opponents are of the "anybody but Briley" camp due to the transit referendum on May 1st.

My prediction:
David Briley 46%
Carol Swain 23%
Others: 31%