California House Races Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rouda isn't optimal but he's received my personal backing following Laura Oatman's withdrawal from the contest. Yeah, he's pretty much just a Kasich Republican at heart, but he begrudging supports Medicare for All and the like so I can't really bring myself to care. It's not like he's going to make it to statewide office in the place of an actual leftie or whatever.

Bold and baseless prediction: Michael Avenatti (whose office I drove by while in Newport yesterday en route to FI) runs for this seat in 2020 should Scott Baugh make the top-two this cycle.

I don't think Avenatti would win, but that'd be hilarious.

It would be even more hilarious if Stormy ran for office.  (Hey, it worked for Illona Staller.)

[Bidenworth2020]

Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

we all make mistakes, and ojeda regrets voting for trump. rouda doesnt appear to regret his vote for kasich. btw, this true conservative thing doesnt fit you lol, come home to the sane party

[Greedo punched first]

Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

we all make mistakes, and ojeda regrets voting for trump. rouda doesnt appear to regret his vote for kasich. btw, this true conservative thing doesnt fit you lol, come home to the sane party

That will hurt Ojeda. Ojeda likely loses in November.

[YE]

Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

we all make mistakes, and ojeda regrets voting for trump. rouda doesnt appear to regret his vote for kasich. btw, this true conservative thing doesnt fit you lol, come home to the sane party

That will hurt Ojeda. Ojeda likely loses in November.

Manchin didn’t vote for Trump either and he’ll likely win WV-03.

[Greedo punched first]

Rouda will be a horrible Congressman but he’s the only electable candidate in the race now.

Why would Rouda be "horrible"?

I don't trust someone who voted for John Kasich in 2016. Contrary to what the Resistance may think, the GOP was insane before Trump too.

But you trust Ojeda, the Trump voter?

That reasoning is really dumb LOL, especially when you suck Ojeda's peepee dry. People's views can change, and he only voted Kasich in the primary.

Ojeda supported Sanders in the primary though and he ran as a Democrat in both 2014 and 2016.

Ok, but he actually voted for Trump in the GE, and Trump is far more repulsive than Kasich. Rouda didn't even vote Kasich in the general, he just supported him in the primary.

Just admit it - you like Ojeda because he is a manly man Populist (TM) and you will ignore that he voted for Trump, whereas you wouldn't make the exception for other people (especially ones you deem "Neoliberal").

we all make mistakes, and ojeda regrets voting for trump. rouda doesnt appear to regret his vote for kasich. btw, this true conservative thing doesnt fit you lol, come home to the sane party

That will hurt Ojeda. Ojeda likely loses in November.

Manchin didn’t vote for Trump either and he’ll likely win WV-03.

Manchin's an incumbent who previously served as Governor. Ojeda doesn't have the advantage of incumbency.

[Gass3268]

DCCC to start running ads in the San Diego market tomorrow. Might be related to some fresh oppo they have on Rocky Chavez. Looks like they might go after him for raising taxes. Some good of fashioned ratf**king.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/996047193940348935

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/996391738188140544

[Politician]

These mailers are getting just a tad bit ridiculous.

*cringe*

[MAINEiac4434]

Laugh all you want, but Rohrabacher’s locking down the crucial nine-year-old vote.

[Ye We Can]

These mailers are getting just a tad bit ridiculous.

I actually liked the mailer in a cute sort of way, tbh.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CA-39: Thorburn and Cisneros agree to play nice

[Gass3268]

DCCC dumping more money into the OC races:

https://twitter.com/hodgesmr/status/999053668610596864

[kyc0705]

These mailers are getting just a tad bit ridiculous.

Guess it works if he wants to swing the elementary school student vote.

[mencken]

Rouda isn't optimal but he's received my personal backing following Laura Oatman's withdrawal from the contest. Yeah, he's pretty much just a Kasich Republican at heart, but he begrudging supports Medicare for All and the like so I can't really bring myself to care. It's not like he's going to make it to statewide office in the place of an actual leftie or whatever.

Bold and baseless prediction: Michael Avenatti (whose office I drove by while in Newport yesterday en route to FI) runs for this seat in 2020 should Scott Baugh make the top-two this cycle.

That publicity-seeking pile of human excrement lives in this district? What an embarrassment.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

Nah honestly, I think CA-49 will be D vs D. The hyped up Chavez is a joke and there's so many Republicans running there. Also, combined D's will likely get at least 5-8% more votes than combined R's.

However, I do think that there is a decent chance that CA-48 is R vs R. I'm also a big doubter in democrats gains in OC California in general... that place is still quite republican downballot.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

Nah honestly, I think CA-49 will be D vs D. The hyped up Chavez is a joke and there's so many Republicans running there. Also, combined D's will likely get at least 5-8% more votes than combined R's.

However, I do think that there is a decent chance that CA-48 is R vs R. I'm also a big doubter in democrats gains in OC California in general... that place is still quite republican downballot.

I think the likeliest outcome in CA-49 is D-R with Applegate and Chavez, but I think Harkey has better odds at locking the Democrats out than Jacobs/Levin do at locking the Republicans out. Either way Chavez is probably going to make it either way. Not that I think the GOP is going to hold the seat in November anyway, assuming a Dem makes it through.

Dems will do better the more they hammer at Republican connections to Trump. OC is still red, but Trump is anathema to Orange County-esque suburban Republicans. If they manage to connect OC Republican officials to Trump and do it well, not only are 39, 48, and 49 flipping, but 45 will too.

[Jeppe]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

Nah honestly, I think CA-49 will be D vs D. The hyped up Chavez is a joke and there's so many Republicans running there. Also, combined D's will likely get at least 5-8% more votes than combined R's.

However, I do think that there is a decent chance that CA-48 is R vs R. I'm also a big doubter in democrats gains in OC California in general... that place is still quite republican downballot.

I think the likeliest outcome in CA-49 is D-R with Applegate and Chavez, but I think Harkey has better odds at locking the Democrats out than Jacobs/Levin do at locking the Republicans out. Either way Chavez is probably going to make it either way. Not that I think the GOP is going to hold the seat in November anyway, assuming a Dem makes it through.

Dems will do better the more they hammer at Republican connections to Trump. OC is still red, but Trump is anathema to Orange County-esque suburban Republicans. If they manage to connect OC Republican officials to Trump and do it well, not only are 39, 48, and 49 flipping, but 45 will too.

Chavez isn’t going to make it to the top 2. He’s lost momentum, his fundraising is weak, and both local and national Republicans have opted for Harkey instead.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

Nah honestly, I think CA-49 will be D vs D. The hyped up Chavez is a joke and there's so many Republicans running there. Also, combined D's will likely get at least 5-8% more votes than combined R's.

However, I do think that there is a decent chance that CA-48 is R vs R. I'm also a big doubter in democrats gains in OC California in general... that place is still quite republican downballot.

I think the likeliest outcome in CA-49 is D-R with Applegate and Chavez, but I think Harkey has better odds at locking the Democrats out than Jacobs/Levin do at locking the Republicans out. Either way Chavez is probably going to make it either way. Not that I think the GOP is going to hold the seat in November anyway, assuming a Dem makes it through.

Dems will do better the more they hammer at Republican connections to Trump. OC is still red, but Trump is anathema to Orange County-esque suburban Republicans. If they manage to connect OC Republican officials to Trump and do it well, not only are 39, 48, and 49 flipping, but 45 will too.

Chavez isn’t going to make it to the top 2. He’s lost momentum, his fundraising is weak, and both local and national Republicans have opted for Harkey instead.

Yeah, Chavez fell down pretty hard.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm not at all worried about 39, I think Cisneros has a spot pretty much locked up there. 48 and 49 are going to be a mess and the party really should've gotten involved much earlier than they did. I put the chances of a lockout in 48 at almost 50/50 and only slightly less than that in 49.

If either one goes to a lockout, I'm blaming Siddiqui and Kerr. At least most of the other Ds in those districts have a shot of winning.

Nah honestly, I think CA-49 will be D vs D. The hyped up Chavez is a joke and there's so many Republicans running there. Also, combined D's will likely get at least 5-8% more votes than combined R's.

However, I do think that there is a decent chance that CA-48 is R vs R. I'm also a big doubter in democrats gains in OC California in general... that place is still quite republican downballot.

I think the likeliest outcome in CA-49 is D-R with Applegate and Chavez, but I think Harkey has better odds at locking the Democrats out than Jacobs/Levin do at locking the Republicans out. Either way Chavez is probably going to make it either way. Not that I think the GOP is going to hold the seat in November anyway, assuming a Dem makes it through.

Dems will do better the more they hammer at Republican connections to Trump. OC is still red, but Trump is anathema to Orange County-esque suburban Republicans. If they manage to connect OC Republican officials to Trump and do it well, not only are 39, 48, and 49 flipping, but 45 will too.

Chavez isn’t going to make it to the top 2. He’s lost momentum, his fundraising is weak, and both local and national Republicans have opted for Harkey instead.

Chavez has certainly gone downhill and could go further down before the actual election itself, but if it were to be held today, smart money would be on Chavez making it in, even if it was close. Not a lot of good polling has been done, but there's only been one poll in which he hasn't made it in. His numbers have gone down, yes, but I'm doubting that it'll be enough to knock him out of a spot in the top two.

Although I certainly wish it does, a D-D GE there would be fantastic as a Democrat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/999526908005007360

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/999690741302616066

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

National Association of Realtors withdraws their endorsement of Dana Rohrabacher. He made some comments recently opposing the extension of fair housing protections to gay people

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/05/24/dana-rohrabacher-says-its-ok-to-not-sell-homes-to-gays-loses-support-of-realtors/

[Greedo punched first]

National Association of Realtors withdraws their endorsement of Dana Rohrabacher. He made some comments recently opposing the extension of fair housing protections to gay people

https://www.ocregister.com/2018/05/24/dana-rohrabacher-says-its-ok-to-not-sell-homes-to-gays-loses-support-of-realtors/

Not surprising. Rohrabacher is a conservative Southern Baptist.

[LimoLiberal]

The kind of good thing about the top-two lockouts is that Democrats can portray it as a pretty big "win" for the party if a candidate gets through in the three dangerous districts.