Best chances: Tester or Manchin?

[Lord Halifax]

Best reelection chances: Tester or Machin?

[KingSweden]

Absolutely Jon Tester

[MT Treasurer]

Tester, but I don’t think this is as obvious as people think, especially if Morrisey or Blankenship wins the R primary in WV.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Happy white men make WV Safe R

[I’m not Stu]

Tester unless Manchin faces Blankenship.

[TDAS04]

Tester

[Xing]

Tester if Jenkins wins the primary, otherwise Manchin.

[Torrain]

Tester unless Manchin faces Blankenship.

^This although I believe both are favoured at the moment. Waiting on primaries for more data on base enthusiasm, turnout and R nominees

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Tester unless Manchin faces Blankenship.

^This although I believe both are favoured at the moment. Waiting on primaries for more data on base enthusiasm, turnout and R nominees

I don't know if primary "base enthusiasm" will mean anything. Dems got 40,000 more votes than republicans in the 2016 WV primaries. The nominee in WV-03 got more votes in the dem primary than they did in the general too.

[Torrain]

Tester unless Manchin faces Blankenship.

^This although I believe both are favoured at the moment. Waiting on primaries for more data on base enthusiasm, turnout and R nominees

I don't know if primary "base enthusiasm" will mean anything. Dems got 40,000 more votes than republicans in the 2016 WV primaries. The nominee in WV-03 got more votes in the dem primary than they did in the general too.

I guess. Just want some hard data before I start predicting. If a surge of primary voters push Jenkins to an easy primary win, I’ll be more concerned for Manchin. In the same way, if more Montanans turn out to boost Tester’s primary victory than 2012, I’ll breath a sigh of relief.

[BlueDogs2020]

Tester definitely..... he has pretty weak opponents and his approval rating has skyrocketed. I would rate his race ¨Lean D¨. Manchin has a much tougher time, but it all depends on primary opponents.... with Jenkins it would be a Tossup, Morrisey Lean D, Blankenship Likely D.

[MT Treasurer]

Tester, but I don’t think this is as obvious as people think, especially if Morrisey or Blankenship wins the R primary in WV.

Yeah, it really wasn’t all that obvious. Tester is still favored, but Manchin definitely has a better chance of winning at this point.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Tester, but I don’t think this is as obvious as people think, especially if Morrisey or Blankenship wins the R primary in WV.

Yeah, it really wasn’t all that obvious. Tester is still favored, but Manchin definitely has a better chance of winning at this point.

Joe Manchin is a better campaigner than Tester. He knows his audience and is not afraid to shoot legislation with a hunting rifle.

Tester is not bad. He knows his biggest asset:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/sen-tester-hits-back-at-ad-depicting-him-with-10-fingers/2017/05/02/979d78c2-2f4f-11e7-a335-fa0ae1940305_video.html

But has he ever held up his fingers like that in an ad, not just in a debate?

I guess there is this, but it doesn't have enough emphasis. Just a passing reference, whereas it should be the central theme:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbE7W-tcwkQ

[😥]

For now Manchin

[IceSpear]

Bold prediction: Still Tester.

[IceSpear]

Bold prediction: Still Tester.

Yeah I feel like WV could be prone to a last minute surge of R support that MT might be a little more immune to

Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking.

Montana is likely to be close, but Tester has the advantage. On one hand, Manchin currently leads by more than Tester. On the other hand, the bottom could fall out from Manchin at any second and cause him to collapse like a house of cards just like what happened with Heitkamp. I'd rather be in Tester's position with the far more reliable yet smaller base that nevertheless puts me narrowly ahead than have to rely on Manchin's far more volatile and uncertain (but for the moment larger) base.

[MT Treasurer]

If the bottom hasn’t fallen out for Manchin so far, when will it? How many rallies has Trump held in the state again?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Tough... Gotta go with Tester though just due to the Siena poll on WV-3(I think both will win though)

[Xing]

Tester if Jenkins wins the primary, otherwise Manchin.

Well, I stand by this.