In private, Trump refuses to believe GOP will lose House majority during midterm

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

All this chicken counting is beginning to unpleasantly remind me of the preparations people were making to attend the inauguration of President Hillary Clinton.  Yes, it looks like the Dems will gain seats in the midterms right now, tho none of them will be in South Carolina.  Problem is, there are a lot of people who are going to go to the polls thinking Trump is an idiot, but my Representative is all right.  I expect the Dems to do much better in flipping open seats than in flipping seats that have an incumbent running for reelection.

That's the thing that's different though, I don't think most people feel their Congressman is alright this time around if said Congressman is a Trump supporter.

Depends on how much of a supporter and how that support is expressed.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

All this chicken counting is beginning to unpleasantly remind me of the preparations people were making to attend the inauguration of President Hillary Clinton.  Yes, it looks like the Dems will gain seats in the midterms right now, tho none of them will be in South Carolina.  Problem is, there are a lot of people who are going to go to the polls thinking Trump is an idiot, but my Representative is all right.  I expect the Dems to do much better in flipping open seats than in flipping seats that have an incumbent running for reelection.

That's the thing that's different though, I don't think most people feel their Congressman is alright this time around if said Congressman is a Trump supporter.

Depends on how much of a supporter and how that support is expressed.

I think it's too early to see how the GOP being Trump's water carrier is going to play, or how many Republican Representatives will stick by Trump or try to run away from him. This is a very volatile administration in a very volatile world. *If present negative trends continue* the Republicans are in for a world of hurt, yes. But the worst thing the Dems can do is get cocky. But if they play this smart (something I doubt), and present trends continue or intensify, then they may end up with a huge win.

[Badger]

All this chicken counting is beginning to unpleasantly remind me of the preparations people were making to attend the inauguration of President Hillary Clinton.  Yes, it looks like the Dems will gain seats in the midterms right now, tho none of them will be in South Carolina.  Problem is, there are a lot of people who are going to go to the polls thinking Trump is an idiot, but my Representative is all right.  I expect the Dems to do much better in flipping open seats than in flipping seats that have an incumbent running for reelection.

That's the thing that's different though, I don't think most people feel their Congressman is alright this time around if said Congressman is a Trump supporter.

Sc-5?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

All this chicken counting is beginning to unpleasantly remind me of the preparations people were making to attend the inauguration of President Hillary Clinton.  Yes, it looks like the Dems will gain seats in the midterms right now, tho none of them will be in South Carolina.  Problem is, there are a lot of people who are going to go to the polls thinking Trump is an idiot, but my Representative is all right.  I expect the Dems to do much better in flipping open seats than in flipping seats that have an incumbent running for reelection.

That's the thing that's different though, I don't think most people feel their Congressman is alright this time around if said Congressman is a Trump supporter.

Sc-5?

It'll be close, but Norman won't have the burden of a heavily-fought primary four weeks before the general in his rematch with Parnell, and he'll have the advantage of a short incumbency. Trump's numbers haven't changed significantly from when the special election was held and since it won't be a special, the Democrats won't be able to focus on it to the same extent. Absent polling, I'll predict 52-46, closer than Mulvaney's final 59-39, but not enuf to flip the seat.

[Fuzzy Bear]

The GOP will likely lose seats, but it's far from unreasonable to believe that they will keep the House.

A lot of Republicans will have tougher races than usual, and there have been some redistrictings (FL and PA) that are favorable to Democrats, but that still doesn't guarantee a Democratic House.  It may happen, of course, but it's no more than 50-50 at this point.

Trump's hardly crazy in talking up GOP chances in the GE.  It's a positive trait of leadership to believe in victory and convey that belief to others, even when the chips are down.  Churchill was an underdog at Dunkirk.  He's doing what he ought to do as leader of his party.  Being overtly pessimistic is a sure fire ticket to defeat for the GOP.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

All this chicken counting is beginning to unpleasantly remind me of the preparations people were making to attend the inauguration of President Hillary Clinton.  Yes, it looks like the Dems will gain seats in the midterms right now, tho none of them will be in South Carolina.  Problem is, there are a lot of people who are going to go to the polls thinking Trump is an idiot, but my Representative is all right.  I expect the Dems to do much better in flipping open seats than in flipping seats that have an incumbent running for reelection.

That's the thing that's different though, I don't think most people feel their Congressman is alright this time around if said Congressman is a Trump supporter.

Sc-5?

It'll be close, but Norman won't have the burden of a heavily-fought primary four weeks before the general in his rematch with Parnell, and he'll have the advantage of a short incumbency. Trump's numbers haven't changed significantly from when the special election was held and since it won't be a special, the Democrats won't be able to focus on it to the same extent. Absent polling, I'll predict 52-46, closer than Mulvaney's final 59-39, but not enuf to flip the seat.

You’re probably right, but Norman strikes me as a pretty weak incumbent and an even weaker campaigner.  I could be wrong, but the little I’ve read about him would seem to suggest that he’s the type who could get swept out in a big wave despite being in a district that “should” be safe on paper due partisanship, PVI, etc (Jim Ryun would be a good example from 2006).  On a different note, this district always makes me sad b/c it somehow went from Spratt to Mulvaney

Btw, any chance SC-1 flips if Sanford loses his primary?  IIRC, the Democrat has had decent-ish fundraising, but that’s all I know about him.

[Rookie Yinzer]

All this chicken counting is beginning to unpleasantly remind me of the preparations people were making to attend the inauguration of President Hillary Clinton.  Yes, it looks like the Dems will gain seats in the midterms right now, tho none of them will be in South Carolina.  Problem is, there are a lot of people who are going to go to the polls thinking Trump is an idiot, but my Representative is all right.  I expect the Dems to do much better in flipping open seats than in flipping seats that have an incumbent running for reelection.

This isn’t about Republicans and voters who “think their Representative is all right”. This is about Democrats who are usually disengaged during midterms and young people who will be voting in their first midterms. There is actual evidence that folks are anxious to go vote for Democrats. 2016 was a hypothetical the whole time so what may or may not happen was pure speculation. That hubris by some did cause others to feel more comfortable in their decisions to stay home or vote a certain way but today not so much. Even if people think Dems have it in the bag they will still participate because they will remember what happened the last time they thought a race was all but over.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The GOP will likely lose seats, but it's far from unreasonable to believe that they will keep the House.

A lot of Republicans will have tougher races than usual, and there have been some redistrictings (FL and PA) that are favorable to Democrats, but that still doesn't guarantee a Democratic House.  It may happen, of course, but it's no more than 50-50 at this point.

Trump's hardly crazy in talking up GOP chances in the GE.  It's a positive trait of leadership to believe in victory and convey that belief to others, even when the chips are down.  Churchill was an underdog at Dunkirk.  He's doing what he ought to do as leader of his party.  Being overtly pessimistic is a sure fire ticket to defeat for the GOP.

Right you are, Fuzzy. Trump should project confidence, and spend the months up to the election doing exactly what he wants, not worry about the possible impacts of his words and actions. Then, in the final days, he should spend a lot of time telling his cult that they have this one in the bag, that there's no way they can lose and they can all relax.


(Maybe he can make an off handed reference to help from friends in Russia?)

[pbrower2a]

This reminds me of what I've read about Hitler in the run-up to WWII. (Hold the screams please, this comparison is just about decision making paths and deluded leaders, nothing more.)

Hitler took a lot of actions that more experienced and rational advisers and critics said were certain to fail. Annexing Austria, parts of Czechoslovakia, Alsace-Lorraine. When these suceeded, Hitler reached a point where he thought he was a genius and his advisers fools.

Similarly, Trump knows he won, thinks the polls are all wrong, etc. In his mind, he's had multiple successes while the experts have been all wrong. So of course he expects that to happen again with the House. I expect a lot of loud insanity from the White House after November, if he lasts that long.

a president not losing faith in his congressional majority is signs of being hitler. critical thinking is a disappearing trait... 5 whole months away from this election and this comment takes the cake. also you are ignorant of history, do not attempt to strengthen your flawed arguments by appealing to it

LOL at someone who is trying to defend the Orange Clown by telling others that they lack "critical thinking."
Who are you kidding?

he'll have accomplished just as much/little as obama by the end of his term

I will concede that Donald Trump will have done more to debase American politics and transform government into a tool of grafters -- by far  --  than Obama did. At such, Barack Obama was singularly lazy!

[Grassroots]

Republicans will probably lose their majorities in the senate.

The house, IMO, probably not. It will be significantly reduced but they will most likely still have control.

[Yank2133]

Republicans will probably lose their majorities in the senate.

The house, IMO, probably not. It will be significantly reduced but they will most likely still have control.

This make zero sense.

The GOP majority in the house is far more vulnerable then their majority in the Senate. The senate map is awful for Democrats.

[BlueSwan]

Let's remember that the GOP could lose by as much as 7 percentage points and still retain the house. It's not a done deal that the Dems will win a majority at all. 7 points is quite a lot!

[Old Man Willow]

All of the evidence points to a 75-80% chance of a Dem takeover. Dems are enthused and turning out in droves, they have also flipped many red seats. Look at special elections in WI & PA, or even that election in OK in 2017.

Nevertheless, the country that voted to re-elect Reagan after he torpedoed the middle class, voted to re-elect Bush after WMDs, and voted for an obvious snake oil salesman two years ago is obviously not to be trusted to make the right decision.

[Young Conservative]

I don’t see a problem with optimism.

[Yank2133]

I don’t see a problem with optimism.

Optimism is fine.

The problem here is Trump is delusional. Even the most optimistic Republican operative has entertain the thought that the midterms could be bad. Trump is not even doing that.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Republicans retain the majority in the House, then that is proof that Russia has hacked voting systems and changed actual votes.

There is just no realistic way at this point in time that the GOP will hold onto the House, and if they do, it means they cheated and colluded.

we are 5 months away from the election are libs are declaring that if the gop holds the house, then they cheated. 5 whole months of news, economic developments, etc. libs are sad!

i'm a republican (a very moderate one, granted) who voted republican for most offices in 2016 and am voting democratic in 2018, assuming the dem isn't crazy.

20% of republicans in AZ-08 voted for a democrat with no experience

lets be real, our party sucks right now. awful policies taken right from the failing bush era, grandstanding teatards, a bumbling moron in the wh, the list goes on... there's really not much to be happy about if you're not a moonbat.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If Republicans retain the majority in the House, then that is proof that Russia has hacked voting systems and changed actual votes.

There is just no realistic way at this point in time that the GOP will hold onto the House, and if they do, it means they cheated and colluded.

we are 5 months away from the election are libs are declaring that if the gop holds the house, then they cheated. 5 whole months of news, economic developments, etc. libs are sad!

i'm a republican (a very moderate one, granted) who voted republican for most offices in 2016 and am voting democratic in 2018, assuming the dem isn't crazy.

20% of republicans in AZ-08 voted for a democrat with no experience

lets be real, our party sucks right now. awful policies taken right from the failing bush era, a bumbling moron in the wh, the list goes on... there's really not much to be happy about if you're not a moonbat.

Of all the specials, the AZ special should be the most alarming for the GOP, because it was about the closest you can get to generic D vs generic R, and generic D did about 15 points better than Clinton did in the district. But that being said, this is exactly where Democrats should want them: thinking you  can't possibly lose an election is a great way to lose an election: see GOP 2006, Dems 2016, UK Conservatives 2017, etc.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Republicans retain the majority in the House, then that is proof that Russia has hacked voting systems and changed actual votes.

There is just no realistic way at this point in time that the GOP will hold onto the House, and if they do, it means they cheated and colluded.

we are 5 months away from the election are libs are declaring that if the gop holds the house, then they cheated. 5 whole months of news, economic developments, etc. libs are sad!

i'm a republican (a very moderate one, granted) who voted republican for most offices in 2016 and am voting democratic in 2018, assuming the dem isn't crazy.

20% of republicans in AZ-08 voted for a democrat with no experience

lets be real, our party sucks right now. awful policies taken right from the failing bush era, a bumbling moron in the wh, the list goes on... there's really not much to be happy about if you're not a moonbat.

Of all the specials, the AZ special should be the most alarming for the GOP, because it was about the closest you can get to generic D vs generic R, and generic D did about 15 points better than Clinton did in the district. But that being said, this is exactly where Democrats should want them: thinking you  can't possibly lose an election is a great way to lose an election: see GOP 2006, Dems 2016, UK Conservatives 2017, etc.

I don't think Hiral Tipinerni was a generic D. She was a pretty good candidate. But she was hardly anything out of the ordinary. Many candidates in competitive seats are as strong or even stronger than Tipinerni.

But regardless, candidate quality isn't the only driver here. Trumpists need to get out of their cult mentality and realize their leader isn't popular (and the GOP brand is even more unpopular). Their only saving grace is the democratic establishment haven't quite figured out their ass from their elbow... but many of the democrats running in 2018 seem quite strong.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I don’t see a problem with optimism.

Optimism is fine.

The problem here is Trump is delusional. Even the most optimistic Republican operative has entertain the thought that the midterms could be bad. Trump is not even doing that.

The midterms could be "bad", but I doubt that the GOP will lose the Senate, and I really doubt they'll lose the House (although they'll lose seats; that's for sure).

I do believe that the Democrats will elect new Governors in a slew of states and take back a few state legislative houses, holding PA, MN, and CT, and POSSIBLY retaking FL, IA, IL, and GA. 

In the end, I predict this will be an election with something for everyone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's not unreasonable to believe the GOP could hold the House; I think it's unlikely, but it's conceivable.  But I don't see how anyone can think they're less likely to hold the Senate than the House.  The Senate is a much tougher road for the Democrats.