day 32: new york

[ag]

I'd like to know why Staten Island votes so differently from the rest of downstate New York.

Staten Island is not that radically different from the downstate (it did go for Bush last time, but it went for Gore before that) - but very different from the rest of the NYC. Except for a few Northern neighborhoods (around the Ferry), it is suburban, not urban, very white and somewhat ethnic.  No big universities (meaning few students and/or faculty). It is also traditionally Republican, with the only functioning Republican machine in NYC. Interestingly, Italians, I think, are largely Republican there - the great name of Guy Mollinari (the former long-term borough president, the boss of the machine and father of a former Congresswoman) is not to be forgotten.  I guess, Republicanism is part of the local identity that distinguishes it from New York.

[Alcon]

Do you think Gore did exceptionally well in Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, or Kerry did exceptionally poorly?

[© tweed]

Do you think Gore did exceptionally well in Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, or Kerry did exceptionally poorly?

Both and neither at the same time.  Lol...Bush got a 9-11 bounce that helped him in the suburbs.  That was more of a factor in Bush's 2004 performance in those counties than Kerry being a poor candidate.  Also, Gore probably did better than would have been expected, he beat Clinton's total by a wide margin going from memory.

Also you have to remember Gore outpaced Kerry by 3% nationally, which was a factor in the swing of these counties.  I'd expect a return to 2000 numbers in 2008.

[Alcon]

Do you think Gore did exceptionally well in Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, or Kerry did exceptionally poorly?

Both and neither at the same time.  Lol...Bush got a 9-11 bounce that helped him in the suburbs.  That was more of a factor in Bush's 2004 performance in those counties than Kerry being a poor candidate.  Also, Gore probably did better than would have been expected, he beat Clinton's total by a wide margin going from memory.

Also you have to remember Gore outpaced Kerry by 3% nationally, which was a factor in the swing of these counties.  I'd expect a return to 2000 numbers in 2008.

I see.

Do you expect this even in Richmond?

[Smash255]

Do you think Gore did exceptionally well in Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, or Kerry did exceptionally poorly?

Both and neither at the same time.  Lol...Bush got a 9-11 bounce that helped him in the suburbs.  That was more of a factor in Bush's 2004 performance in those counties than Kerry being a poor candidate.  Also, Gore probably did better than would have been expected, he beat Clinton's total by a wide margin going from memory.

Also you have to remember Gore outpaced Kerry by 3% nationally, which was a factor in the swing of these counties.  I'd expect a return to 2000 numbers in 2008.

Right and wrong.  Wjile Gore did a bit better than Clinton according to the National average (which was expected as the area has been ttrending democrat since 88 against the national average, but Staten Island were actually a little closer in 2000 than it was in 96, Nassau was virtually the same


In 2000 Nassau went to Gore by 19.4% (57.9-38.5) it went to Clinton by 19.6% in 96 (55.7-36.1). 2000 Suffolk went to Gore by 11.4% (53.4-42.0) in 96 Suffolk went to Clinton by 15.7% (51.8-36.1).  Richmond went to Gore by 6.9% in 2000 (51.9-45.0), 96 Richmond went to Clinton by 9.7% (50.5-40..

Now against the National average Nassau was 11.1% more Dem in 96. 18.9% more Dem in 2000.  Suffol was 7.6% more Dem than the national average in 96, 10.9%  more Dem than the national average in 2000.  Richmond was 1.2% more Dem than the national average in 96, 6.4% more  Dem than the national average in 2000

I would say 04 was more of a 9/11 impact in going back in the GOP direction than 2000 being an odd one for Gore because of how the whole area was trending, since it was trending Dem for awhile

1988 Nassau was 7.1% more GOP than the national average, 1992 Nassau was .3% more Dem than the National average.    In 88 Suffolk was  14.5% more GOP than the national average, 92 they were 7.5% more GOP than the national average.  Staten Island (Richmond) in 88 was 15.7% more GOP than the national average, in 92 it was 14.8% more GOP than the National average.

So while all three counties were quite a bit more Democrat than the national average in 2000 (especially Nassau and to a lessser extent Suffolk) I would say 04 was more out of place than 2000, because of the sharp Democratic shift that was going on across all three counties during the several elections prior to 2000 (so it just made sense fot that trend to continue).  I'm with Boss Tweed and expect the 2008 #'s to be muhch more in line with the 2000 #'s

[© tweed]

Do you think Gore did exceptionally well in Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties, or Kerry did exceptionally poorly?

Both and neither at the same time.  Lol...Bush got a 9-11 bounce that helped him in the suburbs.  That was more of a factor in Bush's 2004 performance in those counties than Kerry being a poor candidate.  Also, Gore probably did better than would have been expected, he beat Clinton's total by a wide margin going from memory.

Also you have to remember Gore outpaced Kerry by 3% nationally, which was a factor in the swing of these counties.  I'd expect a return to 2000 numbers in 2008.

I see.

Do you expect this even in Richmond?

Well, no, Bush did much better than expected.  But if you factor in national averages, he overperformed by about 7% or so, and not the 20%+ figure that pops out at the the first time you look.  Again, it's a 9-11 effect, expect a return to normalcy in the future.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As for 9/11 bounces in the county most affected by 9/11, Gore won New York county by 65.8 points, and Kerry won New York county by 65.4 points. Not much of a drop.

Of New York's 62 counties, only Columbia, Otsego, Tompkins, and Ulster counties had the margin improve for the Democrat from 2000 to 2004. Only Tompkins county had Bush's percentage of the vote go down. The latter was pretty common for counties in the SF bay area.