day 32: new york

[© tweed]

Discuss New York.



Bush did a few points better here than in 2000, likely a 9/11 bounce.  He even won Staten Island.  So, I ask the Republicans who claimed NJ is trending GOP...is New York trending Republican as well? 

[DanielX]

It is, a tiny little bit... of course, turning New York Republican is going to take a real long time, sort of like a snail going cross-country.

[True Democrat]

New York is definately trending Democrat.  Bush made New York as close as possible for a Republican with his political views, barring a huge landslide.  Upstate New York I believe will become slightly more Democrat in the near future.

[Kevin]

 Barring Rudi NY is in the bag for the Democracts come 08.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Bush did a few points better here than in 2000, likely a 9/11 bounce.

I know everyone keeps crediting 9/11 for Republican gains in the New York area, but honestly, why???

I guess it's because the Republicans exploited 9/11 to attack everyone else's patriotism.

[True Democrat]

Bush did a few points better here than in 2000, likely a 9/11 bounce.

I know everyone keeps crediting 9/11 for Republican gains in the New York area, but honestly, why???

I guess it's because the Republicans exploited 9/11 to attack everyone else's patriotism.

Or because of the Republican officials that took control of that day and prevented it from getting any worse.

I think it's a combination of the two.  I mean, the Republicans just happened to pick New York for their convention, total coincidence though.

[WalterMitty]

the loss of long island has doomed republican chances in the empire state.

in the old days (ie pre-1992) ny was lean democrat.  since the li has shifted to the dems, the state has been way out of reach for the gop at the presidenital level.

[Erc]

Everyone keeps on talking about the so-called '9-11 bounce'--but I don't really see it, at least on a local level.

In my personal experience, New Yorkers were less affected politically by 9-11 than the rest of the country was--I mean, it was certainly an event of unimaginable magnitude--but we were living here, we had lives to go on with.

My town lost nine people on 9-11--and for a town of under 15k, that's a huge loss.  In 2004, my town proceeded to vote Democratic on the Presidential levelf for the first time in recorded history.  At least in my immediate area, any '9-11 effect' acting in the Republicans' benefit was far outshadowed by the 'Iraq effect,' the continuing shift to social issues, and so forth.  Obviously, you can't extend this to NY as a whole (as NY did, overall, trend a bit Republican)--but, if there was any 9-11 effect, I don't think it was substantially different than the 9-11 effect anywhere else in the country.

[© tweed]

the loss of long island has doomed republican chances in the empire state.

in the old days (ie pre-1992) ny was lean democrat.  since the li has shifted to the dems, the state has been way out of reach for the gop at the presidenital level.

Bush actually ran much much better in Suffolk, and to a lesser extent Nassau, than he did in 2000.

[YRABNNRM]

the loss of long island has doomed republican chances in the empire state.

in the old days (ie pre-1992) ny was lean democrat.  since the li has shifted to the dems, the state has been way out of reach for the gop at the presidenital level.

Bush actually ran much much better in Suffolk, and to a lesser extent Nassau, than he did in 2000.

While that is true, I still think that it wont matter much in the future. As I'm sure you've seen what used to be safe places for the Repbulicans are quickly becoming Democratic havens. This could be because of an influx of city folks or just distaste to the NYGOP, I tend to think it's somewhat both but more of the latter.

The NYGOP really has no idea what it is doing or how to run campaigns anymore in a Democratic state.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Or because of the Republican officials that took control of that day and prevented it from getting any worse.

The same Republicans who still haven't caught Osama after 4 years?

[nclib]

Of course, the main reason why Bush did better in NY than in 2000 is because of 9-11. However, it is interesting that Manhattan did not trend GOP in contrast to the suburbs (especially Brooklyn and Suffolk County).

[TeePee4Prez]

There was a definite 9-11 effect which even trickled down into Philadelphia's northern and eastern suburbs.  Bucks, Burlington, and Mercer Counties trended GOP while south and west of Philly in Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, Democrats stormed up from 2000. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bush did a few points better here than in 2000, likely a 9/11 bounce.

I know everyone keeps crediting 9/11 for Republican gains in the New York area, but honestly, why???

I guess it's because the Republicans exploited 9/11 to attack everyone else's patriotism.

He fooled a minority of New Yorkers, and New York was already so heavily Democrat that it helped him there. Don't worry, the majority of New Yorkers give Bush crappy ratings for 9/11.

[Smash255]

Walter Mitty hit it right on the head with Long Island shifting Democrat (I would add Westchester as well) as why NY has moved from lean Dem to Safe Dem.  Long Island did see a bounce back in 04, but that was very likely due to the 9/11 Bush effect, expect (in a close election, barring a Rudy run) Suffolk to be back up to double digits for the Dems & Nassau hovering around 20 point or so Dem win in 08

[Jake]

Flyers, I seriously doubt Bucks County received any more bump from 9/11 than the rest of the nation.

[ag]

Walter Mitty hit it right on the head with Long Island shifting Democrat (I would add Westchester as well) as why NY has moved from lean Dem to Safe Dem.  Long Island did see a bounce back in 04, but that was very likely due to the 9/11 Bush effect, expect (in a close election, barring a Rudy run) Suffolk to be back up to double digits for the Dems & Nassau hovering around 20 point or so Dem win in 08

As someone who lived in Nassau County in the good old days of Al D'Amato's and Tom Gulotta I have to second.  Nassau's Democratic stronghold these days - that's mind boggling!  If you suggested me 12 years ago this could happen, I'd say you'd bee smoking something funny and NYC would first go Republican.  This was, probably, the strongest Republican local party machine anywhere in the country.  Now you have the entire Downstate Democratic - the game is over.  Until and unless Republicans are once again reliably winning Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Staten Island there is nothing to discuss here. Who cares about the rural Upstate vote if NYC and suburbs are in the same boat! NYC is not in play until that changes.

Minor oscillations up and down (there is 9/11 effect - there is no 9/11 effect; there is life on Mars - there is no life on Mars) are irrelevant here. Nassau should be solid Republican for the party to have any chance to get NY in a presidential election - and Nassau is not going to be strongly Republican until something major happens.  It would take local Democrats at least another decade or two to screw up badly enough to overshadow the memory of the old Republican machine (the unhappy memory, since Republicans did run the county into the ground quite badly: this was the cleanest ever example of big-government, union-coddling fiscally irresponsible Republican machine).

[Smash255]

Walter Mitty hit it right on the head with Long Island shifting Democrat (I would add Westchester as well) as why NY has moved from lean Dem to Safe Dem.  Long Island did see a bounce back in 04, but that was very likely due to the 9/11 Bush effect, expect (in a close election, barring a Rudy run) Suffolk to be back up to double digits for the Dems & Nassau hovering around 20 point or so Dem win in 08

As someone who lived in Nassau County in the good old days of Al D'Amato's and Tom Gulotta I have to second.  Nassau's Democratic stronghold these days - that's mind boggling!  If you suggested me 12 years ago this could happen, I'd say you'd bee smoking something funny and NYC would first go Republican.  This was, probably, the strongest Republican local party machine anywhere in the country.  Now you have the entire Downstate Democratic - the game is over.  Until and unless Republicans are once again reliably winning Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester and Staten Island there is nothing to discuss here. Who cares about the rural Upstate vote if NYC and suburbs are in the same boat! NYC is not in play until that changes.

Minor oscillations up and down (there is 9/11 effect - there is no 9/11 effect; there is life on Mars - there is no life on Mars) are irrelevant here. Nassau should be solid Republican for the party to have any chance to get NY in a presidential election - and Nassau is not going to be strongly Republican until something major happens.  It would take local Democrats at least another decade or two to screw up badly enough to overshadow the memory of the old Republican machine (the unhappy memory, since Republicans did run the county into the ground quite badly: this was the cleanest ever example of big-government, union-coddling fiscally irresponsible Republican machine).

Tom Suozzi has completley turned that around.  Went from the worst run county in the state, to the best run.  Junk bond ratings is now an A bond rating.  Suozzi has a cakewalk to re-election & will win in a landslide

[minionofmidas]

Bush did a few points better here than in 2000, likely a 9/11 bounce.

I know everyone keeps crediting 9/11 for Republican gains in the New York area, but honestly, why???

I guess it's because the Republicans exploited 9/11 to attack everyone else's patriotism.

Or because of the Republican officials that took control of that day and prevented it from getting any worse.

[minionofmidas]

Now stop talking about boring ol' suburbs and talk about NYC and the Upstate, please.

[ag]

Now stop talking about boring ol' suburbs and talk about NYC and the Upstate, please.

What there is to talk about? NYC, other than much of Staten Island and a few enclaves here and there in Brooklyn and Queens, is a one-party state (except in mayoral elections, where it is a non-party state).  The biggest problem for Dems in that respect is low turnout (the City is almost half the State population, but normally only about a quarter of its voters).  A few cities in the Upstate vote Dem, the rest can vote any way they choose - they are irrelevant, unless there is a split between NYC and the suburbs.  Upstate used to matter when Nassau was Republican.  It still matters a bit at the State level (it will continue to matter until the Democrats capture the State Senate and redistrict, which will happen within the next few years), but it could as well be forgotten about in presidential politics

[minionofmidas]

Now stop talking about boring ol' suburbs and talk about NYC and the Upstate, please.

What there is to talk about? NYC, other than much of Staten Island and a few enclaves here and there in Brooklyn and Queens, is a one-party state (except in mayoral elections, where it is a non-party state).  The biggest problem for Dems in that respect is low turnout (the City is almost half the State population, but normally only about a quarter of its voters).  A few cities in the Upstate vote Dem, the rest can vote any way they choose - they are irrelevant, unless there is a split between NYC and the suburbs.  Upstate used to matter when Nassau was Republican.  It still matters a bit at the State level (it will continue to matter until the Democrats capture the State Senate and redistrict, which will happen within the next few years), but it could as well be forgotten about in presidential politics

Ah, but this shouldn't be just about who wins what state, but about what goes on in the state politically, what's trending where, what's odd etc.

[memphis]

I'd like to know why Staten Island votes so differently from the rest of downstate New York.

[© tweed]

I'd like to know why Staten Island votes so differently from the rest of downstate New York.

I believe it's because there are many more white people.

[Smash255]

I'd like to know why Staten Island votes so differently from the rest of downstate New York.

I believe it's because there are many more white people.

Its also more Republican than some of the suburbs who have similar ethnic demographics (especially Nassau County), but that is due to a few reasons.  nassau has a larger Jewish population han Staten Island, also is more socially liberal than Staten island (Staten Island is moderate economically, slightly left of center socially, use to be more conservative in both areas, but is still quite hawksih)