The Atlasian Post-Democracy Dies In Darkness

[Pericles]

The rise of Atlasian journalism has been a heartening development. However, there is plenty of room in the market, and so I decided to start up The Atlasian Post. 1184AZ will be co-editor, and together, we will bring a new voice to Atlasian journalism. Our promise to our readers is that The Atlasian Post reports real news, not fake news. We promise to be fast, we promise to be accurate, and we promise to have some fun along the way. We will also have hard-hitting, informed opinion, providing a progressive perspective on Atlasian politics. This is the place to come to understand what's really going on in Atlasian politics. We have the inside information on Atlasia's politicians. The Atlasian Post will help you understand the important developments in Atlasian politics, as we head into an election where the only certainty is uncertainty.

[Pericles]

Note on sourcing
We are open to using anonymous sources. If you have important information that you feel needs to be reported, feel free to message either AZ or myself. We won't judge you and we will respect your privacy. However, we will make sure that all sources we use are credible before publication, and so place high priority in ensuring our reporting is credible and truthful, so as to maintain and build trust with you-the reader. So, we will use anonymous sources but will be responsible in using them*.

Note on job applications
We would be very happy to have more people at The Atlasian Post, and so if you wish to apply to be part of our team, we will be open to and review your application. We are looking for a broad range of talents in our team. If in doubt, apply!

*Screenshots are better than word of mouth, as a pointer to how you can help us help you.

[Pericles]

NORTH CAROLINA YANKEE HOLDS THE LEAD, NINJA SECOND, ALLIANCE LEFT OUT IN THE COLD

Full results
47 respondents to the poll*
Party registration
Federalist-36.2% 17 respondents
PUP-27.7% 13 respondents
Independent-12.8% 6 respondents
Alliance-10.6% 5 respondents
Peace-10.6% 5 respondents
Other-2.1% 1 respondent
Regional distribution
The South-38.3% 18 respondents
Lincoln-36.2% 17 respondents
Fremont-25.5% 12 respondents
Feeling about midterm results
Happy-48.9% 23 respondents
Unsure-29.8% 14 respondents
Sad-21.3% 10 respondents
fhtagn approval rating
Approve-48.9% 23 respondents
Disapprove-38.3% 18 respondents
Unsure-12.8% 6 respondents
Direction of country
Wrong direction-51.1% 24 respondents
Right direction-36.2% 17 respondents
Unsure-12.8% 6 respondents
Lumine favorability
Favorable-59.6% 28 respondents
Unfavorable-21.3% 10 respondents
Unsure-19.1% 9 respondents
Ninja0428 favorability
Favorable-52.2% 24 respondents
Unsure-28.3% 13 respondents
Unfavorable-19.6% 9 respondents
North Carolina Yankee favorability
Favorable-83.0% 39 respondents
Unsure-10.6% 5 respondents
Unfavorable-6.4% 3 respondents
Horse-race numbers*
North Carolina Yankee(Federalist)-50.0%(+6.9%) 23 respondents
Ninja0428(PUP)-39.1%(+9.7%) 18 respondents
Lumine(Alliance)-10.9%(-10.2%) 5 respondents
View of how June race is shaping up
Good, I am satisfied with the current field-57.4% 27 respondents
Bad, I want other candidates-23.4% 11 respondents
Unsure-19.1% 9 respondents
Likelihood of changing preferences
Unlikely-42.6% 20 respondents
Never-36.2% 17 respondents
Likely-17.0% 8 respondents
Virtually Certain-4.3% 2 respondents
Fremont parliamentary elections-first preferences***
Scott(Center)-36.4% 4 respondents
Pericles(Fianna Fremont)-27.3% 3 respondents
Koopa DaQuick(Conservative)-18.2% 2 respondents
Goldwater(Center)-9.1% 1 respondent
HenryWallaceVP(Fianna Fremont)-9.1% 1 respondent
Devout Centrist(Fianna Fremont)****-0.0% 0 respondents

The June presidential election has already heated up. This race has been filled with unpredictable, unexpected twists, and it's not even May. This poll proves the point. North Carolina Yankee has the lead, having improved significantly on fhtagn's February performance, and having almost universal popularity. Yankee is clearly the favorite to win at this point. However Ninja0428 is doing respectably as well, also improving significantly on the first round performance of Pericles/Wells. Ninja0428, surprisingly, has the lowest favorability ratings, but many voters remain unsure about him, giving the political newcomer room to grow. The surprising casualty is the candidacy of Lumine, who gets a paltry 10.9% and loses around half of the Spiral/Griffin vote. This leaves the Alliance out in the cold, and would be a very disappointing result for them. Most respondents will never change their preferences, or are unlikely to do so. However, a total of 21.3% are either likely or virtually certain to change their preferences. Provided these respondents weren't giving joke answers, this leaves the 21% as the voters to watch this election, and shows the results aren't yet baked in. Meanwhile, Fremont's parliamentary elections have Pericles, Scott and Koopa as the strongest candidates, but candidates like Wallace, Devout Centrist and Goldwater may have cause for concern. To sum up, the two biggest takeaways from this poll are; Yankee is the favorite, and Ninja0428 has the best shot of stopping another Federalist win.

*Not everybody answered every question, presidential question received 46 responses
**VP choices were made while this poll was being conducted so impact of them remains unclear. In brackets is the swing, in this poll it is the change from the first round numbers of their party in February. In future polls it will be the change from the previous poll.
***Apologies for not including Tea Party Hater, and VPH entered too late.
****Correct me if he's actually an Independent.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am very much intrigued by the Fremont race.

1. From a selfish point of view, the restoration of regional level parties was something that came out of my October 2016 campaign, originating as a suggestion from former Emperor JBrase, so I am pleased to see the various Regional level parties seeking dominate the discussion.


2. From a perspective of what is good for the game and the regions, I would love to see the regional level parties dominate politics at the regional level and Scott certainly has done great work with his Centre Party. I think that works towards the distinct culture that you were talking about the other night and at the same time builds competitiveness and interest at the regional level.


One of many things I do plan to discuss over the course of this campaign is how to facilitate and strengthen regional culture.

[Pericles]

It would be an interesting development if regional parties gained greater prominence. However, currently I don't think they matter at all, and while Scott may be laying the seeds for such developments in future elections, this election won't really be about regional parties. If Scott does well it'll be because people like him as a person. People are going to vote for the candidate they like, regardless of party. I think Fremont is a region where the candidate matters a lot more than the party. Fremont just isn't a very partisan region.

[YE]

It would be an interesting development if regional parties gained greater prominence. However, currently I don't think they matter at all, and while Scott may be laying the seeds for such developments in future elections, this election won't really be about regional parties. If Scott does well it'll be because people like him as a person. People are going to vote for the candidate they like, regardless of party. I think Fremont is a region where the candidate matters a lot more than the party. Fremont just isn't a very partisan region.

Regional parties don't really mean too much to me when there's only a handful of players at the state wide level, and when most zombie voters don't give a sh**t about. I do agree that Fremont does not exactly appear partisan but then again the left is fractured in a weird way in my region, as 3 PUP members either did not run again or in your case, imploded and lost  and the Alliance has had a few things go its way recently, and well I've stuck with an indy label for a while now. Also worth noting the Feds have a much higher celling than some think around here IMO.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does the South have a particularly strong history of regional parties?

[Anna Komnene]

I agree that people tend to vote for who they like, but I think Fremont's electorate has changed a bit over the past few months. A lot of left leaning voters have become disinterested or fallen off the rolls and some right leaning voters that weren't too interested for a while have gotten more engaged recently. I don't think I would have done as well as I did if I were running in the recent elections, but that could be my natural tendency to underestimate myself at work too.

Anyway, nowhere to go but up! (especially because I think I forgot to vote in the poll) 

[Pericles]

I agree that people tend to vote for who they like, but I think Fremont's electorate has changed a bit over the past few months. A lot of left leaning voters have become disinterested or fallen off the rolls and some right leaning voters that weren't too interested for a while have gotten more engaged recently. I don't think I would have done as well as I did if I were running in the recent elections, but that could be my natural tendency to underestimate myself at work too.

Anyway, nowhere to go but up! (especially because I think I forgot to vote in the poll) 

You didn't vote in it, but we did get a #SirenWouldHaveWon.

[Mr. Reactionary]

So like 79% of this poll are not swing voters.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

I have.... doubts about this poll. 79% of people won't change their minds? I don't know if that's true.

[Goldwater]

I mean, don't most people vote on party lines? Is a 20% swing voter rate really that low?

[tmthforu94]

Does the South have a particularly strong history of regional parties?

Regional Protection Party was originally a regional party for the South - ended up becoming the primary center-right party of Atlasia in around 2008 and has been ever since (name change several years ago).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Does the South have a particularly strong history of regional parties?

Regional Protection Party was originally a regional party for the South - ended up becoming the primary center-right party of Atlasia in around 2008 and has been ever since (name change several years ago).

I meant post-reset.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Does the South have a particularly strong history of regional parties?

Yes, both "regional level" and "regionally focused" national parties. Imperial Bloc was a national party, but existed only within the South.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Does the South have a particularly strong history of regional parties?

Regional Protection Party was originally a regional party for the South - ended up becoming the primary center-right party of Atlasia in around 2008 and has been ever since (name change several years ago).

The earliest the Federalist can trace its formal antecedents is late January 2012. But the influence of "regionalism" and the regionalist movement has been a powerful influence on the Federalists, considering a lot of the Whigs were basically people you had recruited into the RPP (Zuwo, TJ, Cathcon, JCL, etc) and most of the IB were people PiT had recruited as Emperor either during the time of the RPP or just after. Many of those people are gone now, and yet this remains as strong as ever (like 95% of the Feds want us to oppose centralization of power, higher than fiscal conservatism at 85%).

The right had disappeared prior to the formation of the RPP for almost a year. Ever since then there has been a right in Atlasia, and it has been largely dominated by a regionalist or pro-region mindset. Part of the reason behind that, is because it is easy to unify the disparate conservative factions around the notion of opposing central authority. Most every conservative, be they Libertarian, so-con, Populist, Trumpist even, can agree on one thing, DC should not be controlling your life.

[Pericles]

We've got another June poll out, please make sure to vote in it. I hope we get lots of respondents, so please make sure to respond.
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1Hf-OOzf8JIlOmRLyTuMfO9bOCrgHEBq931KWzdRCixo

[Pericles]

26 responses so far, thank you to those people. Please vote if you haven't already.

[Pericles]

33 responses so far, I'll leave this open for another day or two probably, but please make sure to vote! So far, we've got some very interesting results, so stay tuned for them.

[Pericles]

This poll will close at midnight.

[Pericles]

YANKEE RETAINS LEAD, TIGHT RACE FOR SECOND PLACE
NOT MADIGAN, REACTIONARY LEAD SENATE RACES, GENERIC PROGRESSIVE LEADS IN FREMONT
Full results
38 respondents to the poll
Party registration
31.6% Federalist 12 respondents
28.9% PUP 11 respondents
15.8% Alliance 6 respondents
7.9% Peace 3 respondents
7.9% Independent 3 respondents
7.9% Other 3 respondents
Regional distribution
36.8% South 14 respondents
34.2% Lincoln 13 respondents
28.9% Fremont 11 respondents
fhtagn approval rating
50% approve 19 respondents
36.8% disapprove 14 respondents
13.2% unsure 5 respondents
Direction of Atlasia
44.7% wrong direction 17 respondents
31.6% unsure 12 respondents
23.7% right direction 9 respondents
Favorability ratings of presidential candidates
North Carolina Yankee-71.1% 27 respondents
Lumine-68.4% 26 respondents
Ninja0428-57.9% 22 respondents
DTC-39.5% 15 respondents
Favorability ratings of vice-presidential candidates
Siren-81.6% 31 respondents
1184AZ-60.5% 23 respondents
dfwlibertylover-57.9% 22 respondents
Presidential results
North Carolina Yankee/dfwlibertylover 39.4% 15 respondents
Ninja0428/1184AZ 23.7% 9 respondents
Lumine/Siren 21.0% 8 respondents
DTC/? 2.6% 1 respondent
Unsure 13.2% 5 respondents
With unsure adjusted for most likely candidate*
North Carolina Yankee/dfwlibertylover 42.2%(-7.8%) 16 respondents
Lumine/Siren 26.3%(+15.4%) 10 respondents
Ninja/1184AZ 26.3%(-12.8%) 10 respondents
DTC/? 5.2%(+5.2%) 2 respondents
Lincoln Senate
Not Madigan-40.0% 6 respondents
Generic PUPer/Generic progressive candidate-20.0% 3 respondents
Unsure-13.3% 2 respondents
Generic Federalist/Generic center-right candidate-13.3% 2 respondents
DTC-6.7% 1 respondent
Not not madigan-6.7% 1 respondent
Fremont Senate
Generic PUPer/Generic progressive candidate-30.0% 3 respondents
Generic Alliancite/Generic centrist candidate-20.0% 2 respondents
Generic Federalist/Generic center-right candidate-20.0% 2 respondents
Unsure-20.0% 2 respondents
Myself-10.0% 1 respondent**
Southern Senate
Mr Reactionary-50.0% 7 respondents
The Shadowy Abyss-35.7% 5 respondents
Would write in another candidate-14.3% 2 respondents

In the presidential race, Lumine/Siren has surged to what is basically a 50-50 shot at second place. The Siren pick appears to have been the best received of vice-presidential picks, with Siren boasting a favorability rating of over 80%. The Lumine surge appears to have hurt Ninja0428 the most, but also shaved off some support from North Carolina Yankee. The Federalist ticket of North Carolina Yankee/dfwlibertylover retains a strong lead over both Ninja0428 and Lumine, and another Federalist term looks likely at this point in time.
President fhtagn is reasonably popular with the approval of a majority of Atlasians, according to this poll, but a plurality of respondents judged the country to be heading in the wrong direction. The latter finding does suggest there is a mood for change, but it remains to be seen whether Ninja0428, Lumine, or even DTC will exploit it.
In the Senate, incumbents Not Madigan and Mr Reactionary have leads in Lincoln and the South respectively, and both are heavy favorites for re-election at this time. In Fremont however, with an open seat a plurality would vote for a progressive candidate, which would mean the Alliance would lose one of their 2 seats in the Senate(and presuming no other changes, would result in a 2-2-2 Senate). However, this result is the least reliable, as no names were provided and due to Fremont having the fewest respondents. Fremont is heavily influenced by candidate quality, and it remains to be seen what kind of candidates will emerge in this important Senate race. This remains a very interesting race, and it seems probable that there will be more shocking twists in the days and weeks to come.

*In brackets is the swing from the previous poll.
**If 'myself' wants who they are to be included in this story, they can say so to me. I will assure readers that I did not cast that vote however.

[Lumine]

It is always wise not to rely too much on the polls, but it is an encouraging trend. As Siren helpfully noted, nowhere to go but up!

[wxtransit]

So...

NORTH CAROLINA YANKEE'S HOLDS THE LEAD FALLS, NINJA SECOND PLUMMETS, ALLIANCE LEFT OUT IN THE COLD SURGES

This is why it's best not to read too much into polls, as the change of mind of one person can alter the result drastically.

[Pericles]

So...

NORTH CAROLINA YANKEE'S HOLDS THE LEAD FALLS, NINJA SECOND PLUMMETS, ALLIANCE LEFT OUT IN THE COLD SURGES

This is why it's best not to read too much into polls, as the change of mind of one person can alter the result drastically.

Lol. That's what happens in campaigns, people's minds change.

[Pericles]

I will be conducting interviews in the near future with North Carolina Yankee, Lumine and Ninja0428, stay tuned!