If Huckabee or Romney were the republican nominee in 2008?

[Grassroots]

Imagine McCain never regains his momentum in the 2008 republican primary, and either Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney ends up the republican nominee for president and runs in the general against Obama.


Show maps for a Huckabee vs Obama and a Romney vs Obama 2008 scenario.
(Extra credit for popular vote and running mates.)

Above: Real 2008 election results. (McCain vs. Obama)

[terp40hitch]

Is Palin still vp?

[Canis]

Obama 481
Huck/thompson 57

Obama 376
Romney/Blunt 176
Mccain was a very good candidate to not lose in a landslide Im unsure on how Romney would preform  I would assume hes stronger in the west and weaker in the south than Mccain Huckabee was far too conservative to have a chance nationally especially after the recession He would have lost in a landslide Romney was a very strong candidate in 08 his biggest problem would be turning out the base similar to Mccain what would be interesting is Hillary vs Huck or Hillary vs Romney

[Grassroots]

Is Palin still vp?

For both you can just put in a generic republican running mate.

Bonus for if you choose the most likely running mate for each if nominated.

[BushKerry04]

I'm going to do it with both of them running with who I think they'd have run with:

Obama/Biden (D) 338
Romney/Gregg (R) 200

Obama/Biden (D) 375
Huckabee/Gingrich (R) 163

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE): 404 EVs (55% PV)
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)/Rep. Duncan Hunter: 134 EVs (43% PV)

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE): 298 EVs (50% PV)
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR): 240 EVs (48% PV)

Romney would've made it closer after the financial crisis broke due to his business experience.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)/Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE): 404 EVs (55% PV)
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR)/Rep. Duncan Hunter: 134 EVs (43% PV)

Sen. Barack Obama (R-IL)/Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE): 298 EVs (50% PV)
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR): 240 EVs (48% PV)

Romney would've made it closer after the financial crisis broke due to his business experience.

Actually, I think Romney's business experience would have caused him to do worse after the financial crisis.

[MATTROSE94]

Here's how I think both match-ups would have turned out (I was a bit unsure about running-mates, so I had Mike Huckabee pick Marsha Blackburn and Mitt Romney pick Paul Ryan):

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Joe Biden (D-DE): 337 EVs (53%)
Former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR)/Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R-TN): 207 EVs (45%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL)/Senator Joe Biden (D-DE): 404 EVs (55%)
Former Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI): 134 EVs (43%)
Others: 0 EVs (2%)

[dw93]

Obama vs. Huckabee:

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE): 55% PV, 377 EVs
Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) / Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS) 43% PV, 161 EVs

Obama vs. Romney:

Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) / Senator Joe Biden (D-DE): 53% PV, 403 EV
Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) / Congressman Eric Cantor (R-VA): 45.5%, 135 EV

Romney does worse in the Electoral Vote, Huckabee does worse in the Popular vote. McCain really was the only candidate who had a shot that year, until people got to know Palin and Lehman Brothers collapsed in September, once those happened McCain didn't have a prayer.

[Grassroots]

IMO:

Huckabee/McCain:

A Huckabee nomination would increase turnout and excitement among the conservative base of the GOP, while turning away moderates and independents. Total popular vote for Huckabee would be about 2 million lower than what McCain received IRL. The election would make the country a tad bit more polarized than it actually was.

Obama would be able to paint Huckabee as authoritarian. Huckabee would be able to use his outsider status to distance himself from president Bush, thus removing most of the heavy record attacks that McCain received from Democrats IRL.

Because Huckabee is a strong conservative himself, he could pick a lighter, more moderate senator like McCain for his running mate, to round up moderates.

Huckabee would be able to flip Indiana, mainly from a more hands-on ground operation, and from a more supporting conservative base. Red states would become redder, blue states would become bluer.

Romney/Christ

A Romney nomination would at the best possible result, unite most of the party. Quite a large percentage of the christian evangelical right would become less enthusiastic, while mormons across the country would flock to voting booths in support of Romney, a fellow mormon. Because Romney is more on the moderate side of the isle on social issues, moderates and independents would increase in turnout for the republican candidate. Romney would have a better chance than McCain in attracting former Hillary Clinton democratic primary voters, and would succeed in doing so with a slightly larger percentage of them. As a result, blue states will become redder, and red states will become bluer. Total popular vote for Romney would be about 1.5 million votes more than what McCain received IRL.

The democrats would portray Romney as a flip-flopper (doing what Bush did to Kerry in 2004) and they would portray his mormonism as a social risk for the country. Romney would be able to portray himself as a political outsider and would be portrayed as better for the economy due to his success in the private sector. Healthcare wouldn't be as much of an issue in the election, due to Romney and Obama having very similar plans.

Romney would select Charlie Christ, fellow moderate governor, to help rock the vote in Florida.

Romney would flip Florida due to his running mate, and would win Indiana and North Carolina. He would lose Missouri by a very close margin, due to his being less supported from the conservative base.

Little extra here:

Giuliani/Thompson

A Giuliani nomination would blur the lines between red state and blue state. The conservative base of the party would turn out completely alienated if Giuliani, an actively pro-choice blue city mayor, were nominated. However, moderates and independents would be swing hardly to the republican ticket. Even some moderate democrats (and a good amount of Hillary Clinton supporters) would vote for Giuliani in the general. In popular vote totals, Giuliani and Obama could potentially be only 3-2 million votes apart, much more than the 6 million vote difference IRL.

The democrats would portray Giuliani as a weak politician who cannot even unite his own party. Giuliani would be able to tote his successful mayorship of New York City, and his accomplishments during that time, as well as a more common-sense approach to the issues. Giuliani would fly the flag of bipartisanship on the campaign trail.

In order to add more legislative experience to the ticket, and to secure a large percentage of uncertain conservative base voters, Giuliani would likely choose a conservative senator like Fred Thompson for running mate.

Giuliani would, as said before, almost completely blur the lines of red and blue state. He would win Florida due to a large voter base in the southern portion of the state, and he would win Michigan in a historic upset by appealing to middle class workers. If he had chose another moderate as his running mate, he likely would not win Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Missouri, North Carolina, or Florida.

[NewYorkExpress]

Huckabee would flip Indiana and North Carolina from the 2008 map, thanks to an increase in conservative/evangelical vote.

Romney would be savaged for his Wall Street ties, much like he was in 2012, so Obama would, in addition all states he won in 2008, also be able to flip Missouri, Georgia, Montana and one of South Carolina, Arizona or Louisiana, for an Electoral Vote total approaching 410.

The one good thing about Romney's campaign is he wouldn't have picked Palin....which is something Huckabee might well have done, given Palin is a strong Conservative in her own right, and that Obama would probably have a healthy lead among female voters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm probably biased towards Huckabee, because I'm a Hucka- shill, but Huckabee would win all the McCain states + NC because of Huckabee's African- american appeal. Romney was the 3rd term Bush on steroids, I could see him losing MO, GA, MT, and AZ if he was the nominee.

No offense but "Huckabeeliever" would be a better pun than "Hucka-shill."