Rate the Texas Senate Race

[Politician]

Lean R. However, an upset is possible in the face of a major Cruz scandal (I wouldn't be surprised if he has one).

[LimoLiberal]

Likely R. Beto is way too far left for the state, though he has raised good money.

[KingSweden]

Likely R

[MarkD]

Likely R. Beto is way too far left for the state, though he has raised good money.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Likely R, inching closer to Lean.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Likely r but right on the border of Lean

[Blair]

Likely R. Beto is way too far left for the state, though he has raised good money.

Agree with the first part but can Atlas stop pretending that you need to be a rampant blue dog to win in red states (or equally that the GOP need to be devout moderates to win in blue states)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Likely R.

[Canis]

Lean R closer to likely than tossup still Cruz is having trouble raising money and Beto is very charismatic Beto gives me Kander 2016 vibes

[Rhenna]

Lean R but closer to likely than tossup.

[CatoMinor]

Likely R until we get more data points.

[NewYorkExpress]

Tossup, just like Tennessee...though like Tennessee, Cruz/Blackburn will win if the race ended today.

[mcmikk]

Lean R but closer to likely than tossup.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Likely R until we get more data points.

[LimoLiberal]

Cruz is more likely to lose than Heitkamp.

*eyeroll*

Cruz is more likely to lose than Baldwin or Brown. But he's in better shape than all of the Romney-state Dems.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Completely, utterly, and totally Safe R. Atlas is going to have egg on its face when Cruz wins by 9 points or so. The whole battleground Texas idea in general is a joke, Hillary maxed out the Urban vote and still lost 43-52.

[Doimper]

Cruz is more likely to lose than Heitkamp.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Cruz is more likely to lose than Heitkamp.

*eyeroll*

Cruz is more likely to lose than Baldwin or Brown. But he's in better shape than all of the Romney-state Dems.

In a neutral year? Yes. In a D tsunami? No. Heitkamp is a stronger incumbent than Cruz anyway, and Cook thinks he’s at least more vulnerable than Tester, IIRC.

Cook has Tester at Likely D, Cruz at Likely R, and Heitkamp at Toss-Up.

[LimoLiberal]

Cruz is more likely to lose than Heitkamp.

*eyeroll*

Cruz is more likely to lose than Baldwin or Brown. But he's in better shape than all of the Romney-state Dems.

In a neutral year? Yes. In a D tsunami? No. Heitkamp is a stronger incumbent than Cruz anyway, and Cook thinks he’s at least more vulnerable than Tester, IIRC.

Cook has Tester at Likely D, Cruz at Likely R, and Heitkamp at Toss-Up.

Don't even try to reason with him. Heitkamp is even one of my favorite senators and I want her to win, but I can't say I won't feel a little bit of schadenfreude when she loses with his attitude.

[Dipper Josh]

Beto's checked off all the boxes so far. He's taken no corporate pac money and he's already shown polling much better when Cruz voters find out he doesnt take corporate pac money. He's focused his energy on all the rural red districts instead of attacking the city centre's that will go for him anyway. He's soft spoken, polite, and genuine.

He's the perfect candidate for the Democrats in Texas, I was going to say Lean R but I've got a sliver of optimism for this race. Tossup.

[smoltchanov]

I hate Cruz, but - likely R. Texas isn't flexible enough.

[Xing]

Likely R. Cruz probably wins by mid-high single digits.

[IceSpear]

As an Atlas poster, I am obliged to dismiss any high quality poll that shows this as a margin of error race. Only trash polls like Gravis, Emerson, and internals can change my ratings. Safe R.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cruz is more likely to lose than Heitkamp.

No

[gottsu]

Lean R. Only at this moment.

This could change into a tossup or even Lean D. After 2017 and beginning of 2018 cycle I am going to believe even in baked ice.