Just a quick thought experiment re:AZ-08

[politicallefty]

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but how do you view the midterms if Republicans lose AZ-08 on Tuesday?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

midterms willl be a disaster if lesko somehow loses

but lesko should win by 8+

[IceSpear]

If Republicans lose AZ-08; then everyone will forget about it three days later when Morning Consult releases a poll showing Democrats only +4 on the Generic Ballot and Atlas will declare the "Blue Wave Is Dead".

LOL, pretty much this.

But seriously, Republicans have no excuse for this one even being remotely close, much less losing it. Yeah, you can blame Alabama on Roy Moore being a pedophile. You can even kind of blame PA-18 on Lamb being a great candidate and Saccone being a mediocre one. It's literally impossible to spin anything less than a double digit Lesko win as anything other than a disaster for Republicans. This is the 90th most Republican district in the country FFS, has zero history of supporting any kind of Democrat, and the Democratic candidate is basically a some chick running against a competent state senator.

I'll go so far as to say that Lesko only winning by single digits is actually a worse sign for the Republicans than Lamb's razor thin win was, simply because they have literally NO excuse for this not being a trouncing.

[politicallefty]

If Republicans lose AZ-08; then everyone will forget about it three days later when Morning Consult releases a poll showing Democrats only +4 on the Generic Ballot and Atlas will declare the "Blue Wave Is Dead".

LOL, pretty much this.

But seriously, Republicans have no excuse for this one even being remotely close, much less losing it. Yeah, you can blame Alabama on Roy Moore being a pedophile. You can even kind of blame PA-18 on Lamb being a great candidate and Saccone being a mediocre one. It's literally impossible to spin anything less than a double digit Lesko win as anything other than a disaster for Republicans. This is the 90th most Republican district in the country FFS, has zero history of supporting any kind of Democrat, and the Democratic candidate is basically a some chick running against a competent state senator.

I'll go so far as to say that Lesko only winning by single digits is actually a worse sign for the Republicans than Lamb's razor thin win was, simply because they have literally NO excuse for this not being a trouncing.

Basically this. Of course GOP will see Lesko edging it out as a massive win and will declare "Blue Wave is dead!"

In terms of the big picture, a <5% win for the Republicans is basically the same as a loss. It only saves them a nuclear attack on their morale. It doesn't change the environment and the inevitability of what's to come in November.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Can we keep in mind that Paul Penzone still couldn’t come within 5 points of the neo-Nazi felon even as he was BTFOing Arpaio in the county as a whole, cool, thanks

Yeah... I have no hope for this district lol

[politicallefty]

I never said I expected a Democratic victory here. My question was a simple "what if?"

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I never said I expected a Democratic victory here. My question was a simple "what if?"

I am just trying to get atlas to be realistic about this district. sometimes atlas gets way too excited

[GeorgiaModerate]

I never said I expected a Democratic victory here. My question was a simple "what if?"

I am just trying to get atlas to be realistic about this district. sometimes atlas gets way too excited

"Sometimes"?

[Badger]

Midterms will be a disaster even if lesko wins by single digits.

If she loses, expect a tsunami.