MO SEN: McCaskill +4 (MOScout)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I'm afraid that many good polls for the Democrats will anesthetize the Democratic base and hurt the tornout among Democrats in 2018.

King Lear sock?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is unrelated to this poll and I have no clue if Claire wins or not but I thought of something.

Missouri is unlikely to swing or trend Republican in 2020.

Why?

1) This gets heard a lot but Trump literally maxed out in rural areas in Missouri. For him to improve he would get obtaining 90+% in most counties.

2) Ferguson may have stalled a trend but it will be worn out by 2020. St Louis County and St Charles will have a Democratic trend. St Charles only leaning Republican and St Louis County titanium Democratic in the future.

3) Kansas City metro area is quite elastic and out of necessity Democrats will heavily compete and invest there to at least make places around KCMO Democratic on the state level.

So it seems pretty unlikely Missouri gets any more GOP though it will remain a Republican state.
 

McCaskill lost St Charles by 9 and won by 2 in 2006 (11 points more R than statewide)
McCaskill won St Charles by 4 and won by 16 in 2012 (12 points more R than statewide)

If she is winning St Charles in 2018, then it means that she is already winning statewide by a large margin.

Right now, I would say that McCaskill is favored in a total of 11 Counties (and statewide):

St. Louis City (Safe McCaskill)
St. Louis (Safe McCaskill)
Jefferson (Lean McCaskill)
St. Genevieve (Likely McCaskill)
Boone (Safe McCaskill)
Saline (Likely McCaskill)
Jackson (Safe McCaskill)
Rays (Lean McCaskill)
Platte (Safe McCaskill)
Clay (Safe McCaskill)
Buchanan (Likely McCaskill)

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This poll cannot be accurate because the Missouri senate election is Likely Republican in my ratings.

Stop with the Lear type posting.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

For what it's worth, the Missouri senate race is tied, 45-45%, in an average of polling conducted so far this year.

Remington Research, 4/19-20: McCaskill 48-44%
Mason Dixon, 4/4-6: McCaskill 45-44%
Gravis Marketing, 3/5-7: McCaskill 42-40%
Axios/Survey Monkey, 2/12-3/5: Hawley 52-44%
PPP, 1/8-9: McCaskill 45-44%

McCaskill is clearly leading if you exclude the Survey Monkey poll, which absolutely should be excluded due to the completely unscientific nature of how Survey Monkey polls work.

With survey monkey, anyone can create a poll, and then they can send it out to others however they want, and taking it is completely voluntary.

So this is actually completely possible with Survey Monkey:

1. Get a campaign staffer to create a poll for their race.
2. Send the poll out to the entire mailing list of the politician in question.
3. Watch as the skewed sample creates a skewed result.

Survey Monkey was designed for businesses to poll their customers to gauge what their customers want to see (who will only take the time to fill it out if they have strong preferences, and in a way that can easily be set up to reach their target audience, and their target audience only); not for political organizations to poll political topics.