MO SEN: McCaskill +4 (MOScout)

[Littlefinger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/987705372327759872

48/44

[McGovernForPrez]

Slay Queen!!!!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Where's the crosstabs?

[Lamda]

I'm afraid that many good polls for the Democrats will anesthetize the Democratic base and hurt the tornout among Democrats in 2018.

[Virginiá]

I'm afraid that many good polls for the Democrats will anesthetize the Democratic base and hurt the tornout among Democrats in 2018.

I doubt it. It seems like the base is energized in ways that are bigger than any one race. Plus, looking at RCP, Hawley still has a very slight avg lead. If it's still within low single digits by Sept-Oct, I don't know why anyone would take that for granted.

[KingSweden]

I'm afraid that many good polls for the Democrats will anesthetize the Democratic base and hurt the tornout among Democrats in 2018.

I doubt it. It seems like the base is energized in ways that are bigger than any one race. Plus, looking at RCP, Hawley still has a very slight avg lead. If it's still within low single digits by Sept-Oct, I don't know why anyone would take that for granted.

I think RCP’s average is being thrown off by that dubious Acios poll

[Skill and Chance]

The Greitens situation might save McCaskill. 

[McGovernForPrez]

The Greitens situation might save McCaskill. 

I mean McCaskill has been making some really crafty moves even outside of the Greitens scandle, like the lawsuits she's been filing against Hawley.

[Ebsy]

There won't be any crosstabs available to the likes of us. MOScout is a private subscription based outfit that regularly conducts polling for its subscribers using Remington Research. Occasionally the numbers are leaked.

[Blackacre]

I still think Missouri is a tossup, but this poll gives me hope

[McGovernForPrez]

There won't be any crosstabs available to the likes of us. MOScout is a private subscription based outfit that regularly conducts polling for its subscribers using Remington Research. Occasionally the numbers are leaked.

So that means Remington polled this race? If so that's a pretty huge shift from their January poll showing Hawley up by 4.

[LimoLiberal]

McCaskill is in a much better position compared to 2012 at this stage, if you evaluate polling from then and polling right now.

[LimoLiberal]

Also, I'm pretty sure this is Remington. They conducted the Missouri scout poll last time.

[KingSweden]

That’s an 8 point swing from their last poll

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I'm afraid that many good polls for the Democrats will anesthetize the Democratic base and hurt the tornout among Democrats in 2018.

Limo Liberal is that you?

[KingSweden]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

[Devout Centrist]

Gonna be wild when Claire wins by an even larger margin than in 2012

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I'm afraid that many good polls for the Democrats will anesthetize the Democratic base and hurt the tornout among Democrats in 2018.

King Lear sock?

[UWS]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

And Missouri is also a strongly conservative state that Trump won by at least 17 percentage points. Hawley could pursue his attacks against McCaskill by mentioning the numerous times she voted to raise taxes or voted against cutting taxes, labeling her as « Claire McTaxAll » and as too liberal for Missouri.

https://www.clairemctaxall.com/

[KingSweden]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

And Missouri is also a strongly conservative state that Trump won by at least 17 percentage points. Hawley could pursue his attacks against McCaskill by mentioning the numerous times she voted to raise taxes or voted against cutting taxes, labeling her as « Claire McTaxAll » and as too liberal for Missouri.

https://www.clairemctaxall.com/

Mind you I’m ambivalent about Hawley, who’s struck me as unimpressive, beating a canny knife-fighter like Claire. I just thought setting the Senate as Lean/Likely D is way premature

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unless Trump goes away or transforms himself into a knowledgeable, mild-mannered, Rockefeller Republican, the Democratic base will remain fired-up and eager to vote all the way to 2020.

[BundouYMB]

Last poll from this pollster (from January) had Hawley up 4. Dems momentum just keeps getting bigger and bigger.

[jamestroll]

This is unrelated to this poll and I have no clue if Claire wins or not but I thought of something.

Missouri is unlikely to swing or trend Republican in 2020.

Why?

1) This gets heard a lot but Trump literally maxed out in rural areas in Missouri. For him to improve he would get obtaining 90+% in most counties.

2) Ferguson may have stalled a trend but it will be worn out by 2020. St Louis County and St Charles will have a Democratic trend. St Charles only leaning Republican and St Louis County titanium Democratic in the future.

3) Kansas City metro area is quite elastic and out of necessity Democrats will heavily compete and invest there to at least make places around KCMO Democratic on the state level.

So it seems pretty unlikely Missouri gets any more GOP though it will remain a Republican state.
 

[cvparty]

Missouri is unlikely to swing or trend Republican in 2020.

why would a trend be unlikely?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Come on McCaskill lets do this!!!!