MO SEN: McCaskill +4 (MOScout)

[KingSweden]

I'm afraid that many good polls for the Democrats will anesthetize the Democratic base and hurt the tornout among Democrats in 2018.

I doubt it. It seems like the base is energized in ways that are bigger than any one race. Plus, looking at RCP, Hawley still has a very slight avg lead. If it's still within low single digits by Sept-Oct, I don't know why anyone would take that for granted.

I think RCP’s average is being thrown off by that dubious Acios poll

[KingSweden]

That’s an 8 point swing from their last poll

[KingSweden]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

[KingSweden]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

And Missouri is also a strongly conservative state that Trump won by at least 17 percentage points. Hawley could pursue his attacks against McCaskill by mentioning the numerous times she voted to raise taxes or voted against cutting taxes, labeling her as « Claire McTaxAll » and as too liberal for Missouri.

https://www.clairemctaxall.com/

Mind you I’m ambivalent about Hawley, who’s struck me as unimpressive, beating a canny knife-fighter like Claire. I just thought setting the Senate as Lean/Likely D is way premature

[KingSweden]

Wiki has this as a Dem sponsored poll. Anyone have the actual poll report? Can’t find it anywhere. I’d like to see the questions and sample, but if the questions aren’t pushy and the sample fairly realistic then Josh needs to get his act together and pressure Greitens to get the hell out of there and make it known that it was he who did so.

Preponderance of evidence suggests Greitens would not do that

[KingSweden]

This poll cannot be accurate because the Missouri senate election is Safe Republican in my ratings.