MO SEN: McCaskill +4 (MOScout)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

And Missouri is also a strongly conservative state that Trump won by at least 17 percentage points. Hawley could pursue his attacks against McCaskill by mentioning the numerous times she voted to raise taxes or voted against cutting taxes, labeling her as « Claire McTaxAll » and as too liberal for Missouri.

https://www.clairemctaxall.com/

Kander and Koster nearly won Missouri even in 2016. Missouri isn't "strongly conservative".

[MarkD]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

And Missouri is also a strongly conservative state that Trump won by at least 17 percentage points. Hawley could pursue his attacks against McCaskill by mentioning the numerous times she voted to raise taxes or voted against cutting taxes, labeling her as « Claire McTaxAll » and as too liberal for Missouri.

https://www.clairemctaxall.com/

Kander and Koster nearly won Missouri even in 2016. Missouri isn't "strongly conservative".

Okay, the close races of Blunt-Kander and Greitens-Koster make it seem as if the state is still pretty competitive, but besides the presidential vote, some of us can make a case for the conservatism of the state by pointing to the General Assembly. Both chambers have a more than two-to-one ratio of Republicans to Democrats -- twenty-five Republicans to nine Democrats in the Senate and one hundred sixteen Republicans to forty-seven Democrats in the House.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

And Missouri is also a strongly conservative state that Trump won by at least 17 percentage points. Hawley could pursue his attacks against McCaskill by mentioning the numerous times she voted to raise taxes or voted against cutting taxes, labeling her as « Claire McTaxAll » and as too liberal for Missouri.

https://www.clairemctaxall.com/

Kander and Koster nearly won Missouri even in 2016. Missouri isn't "strongly conservative".

Okay, the close races of Blunt-Kander and Greitens-Koster make it seem as if the state is still pretty competitive, but besides the presidential vote, some of us can make a case for the conservatism of the state by pointing to the General Assembly. Both chambers have a more than two-to-one ratio of Republicans to Democrats -- twenty-five Republicans to nine Democrats in the Senate and one hundred sixteen Republicans to forty-seven Democrats in the House.

That's true.

But to be fair, democrats have been doing far worse in state legislature elections than national (besides like Alaska). I mean, Virgina had only 34 democrats before 2017...

Obviously that will change in 2018, but for now, democrats have been decimated in the state legislatures.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Unless Drumpf goes away or transforms himself into a knowledgeable, mild-mannered, Rockefeller Republican, the Democratic base will remain fired-up and eager to vote all the way to 2020.

Even then, it would probably be too late for Trump to reverse any of the damage he caused.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

And Missouri is also a strongly conservative state that Trump won by at least 17 percentage points. Hawley could pursue his attacks against McCaskill by mentioning the numerous times she voted to raise taxes or voted against cutting taxes, labeling her as « Claire McTaxAll » and as too liberal for Missouri.

https://www.clairemctaxall.com/

With Trump crushing all opposition in the GOP primary on a white nationalist welfare for whites policy, economic conservatism is dead. The Reagan era is over, Trump campaigned and won on a policy of being a anti wall street pro worker candidate. He has betrayed that promise, but this does show how nobody in the US cares about economic conservatism anymore.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is unrelated to this poll and I have no clue if Claire wins or not but I thought of something.

Missouri is unlikely to swing or trend Republican in 2020.

Why?

1) This gets heard a lot but Trump literally maxed out in rural areas in Missouri. For him to improve he would get obtaining 90+% in most counties.

2) Ferguson may have stalled a trend but it will be worn out by 2020. St Louis County and St Charles will have a Democratic trend. St Charles only leaning Republican and St Louis County titanium Democratic in the future.

3) Kansas City metro area is quite elastic and out of necessity Democrats will heavily compete and invest there to at least make places around KCMO Democratic on the state level.

So it seems pretty unlikely Missouri gets any more GOP though it will remain a Republican state.
 

McCaskill lost St Charles by 9 and won by 2 in 2006 (11 points more R than statewide)
McCaskill won St Charles by 4 and won by 16 in 2012 (12 points more R than statewide)

If she is winning St Charles in 2018, then it means that she is already winning statewide by a large margin.

Right now, I would say that McCaskill is favored in a total of 11 Counties (and statewide):

St. Louis City (Safe McCaskill)
St. Louis (Safe McCaskill)
Jefferson (Lean McCaskill)
St. Genevieve (Likely McCaskill)
Boone (Safe McCaskill)
Saline (Likely McCaskill)
Jackson (Safe McCaskill)
Rays (Lean McCaskill)
Platte (Safe McCaskill)
Clay (Safe McCaskill)
Buchanan (Likely McCaskill)

[Xing]

People were far too quick to label McCaskill DOA. She might still lose narrowly, but she was never going to get Blanched.

[jamestroll]

And Kander lost St. Charles County by 7.53 points while losing by 2.79 statewide.

4.74 points more GOP than state average. Things have changed you know.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At this point, with all that Hawley, Grietens, and Trump have done to potentially ruin what was once an easy pickup, it's pretty clear that if McCaskill doesn't win, Missouri won't have another Dem Senator for a good fifty years if not longer.

[MT Treasurer]

At this point, with all that Hawley, Grietens, and Trump have done to potentially ruin what was once an easy pickup, it's pretty clear that if McCaskill doesn't win, Missouri won't have another Dem Senator for a good fifty years if not longer.

Absolutely not. Roy Blunt could very well lose his seat in 2022, and an open seat is likely to be competitive as well (or not all that competitive if Trump wins reelection).

[Suburbia]

McCaskill will likely win by 5-10 points, but this race is still Tossup.

Hawley is being associated with the toxic Greitens and it is costing the MO GOP.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

At this point, with all that Hawley, Grietens, and Trump have done to potentially ruin what was once an easy pickup, it's pretty clear that if McCaskill doesn't win, Missouri won't have another Dem Senator for a good fifty years if not longer.

Absolutely not. Roy Blunt could very well lose his seat in 2022, and an open seat is likely to be competitive as well (or not all that competitive if Trump wins reelection).

If there's a democratic president after 2020, 2022 is going to be another Republican 🌊 just like 2010 and 2014, so Blunt obviously won't lose. If it's Trump's second term, I can see where the argument comes from, but if McCaskill can't survive this year as an incumbent, I don't really see why 2022 would be any different for Ds.

[Suburbia]

Roy Blunt could lose in 2022 to Jason Kander or the Carnahan siblings.

Missouri is a conservative-leaning state, but not like a Tennessee....

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCaskill will likely win by 5-10 points, but this race is still Tossup.

The two parts of this statement don't even try to be coherent together, lol.

[jamestroll]

I will be sad if my grandmother loses

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Last poll from this pollster (from January) had Hawley up 4. Dems momentum just keeps getting bigger and bigger.

But YouGov says...

[MarkD]

I will be sad if my grandmother loses

Who is she and what is she running for?

[Free Bird]

Wiki has this as a Dem sponsored poll. Anyone have the actual poll report? Can’t find it anywhere. I’d like to see the questions and sample, but if the questions aren’t pushy and the sample fairly realistic then Josh needs to get his act together and pressure Greitens to get the hell out of there and make it known that it was he who did so.

[KingSweden]

Wiki has this as a Dem sponsored poll. Anyone have the actual poll report? Can’t find it anywhere. I’d like to see the questions and sample, but if the questions aren’t pushy and the sample fairly realistic then Josh needs to get his act together and pressure Greitens to get the hell out of there and make it known that it was he who did so.

Preponderance of evidence suggests Greitens would not do that

[President Johnson]

Toss-up, I still consider her the most endangered senate Democrat this year.

[mds32]

Trump’s Approval in the State:

March 10th 46-50 (Gravis)
April 12th 47-45 (Mason-Dixon)
April 20th 50-44 (Remington)

This is something to note.  A 10-point turnaround is definitely outside to MoE of both polls as well. As his approval continues to improve in the state it is clear that he is likely to campaign against McCaskill now.

[BudgieForce]

Trump’s Approval in the State:

March 10th 46-50 (Gravis)
April 12th 47-45 (Mason-Dixon)
April 20th 50-44 (Remington)

This is something to note.  A 10-point turnaround is definitely outside to MoE of both polls as well. As his approval continues to improve in the state it is clear that he is likely to campaign against McCaskill now.

It's hard to extrapolate a trend from 3 different pollsters with different methodologies.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump’s Approval in the State:

March 10th 46-50 (Gravis)
April 12th 47-45 (Mason-Dixon)
April 20th 50-44 (Remington)

This is something to note.  A 10-point turnaround is definitely outside to MoE of both polls as well. As his approval continues to improve in the state it is clear that he is likely to campaign against McCaskill now.

It's hard to extrapolate a trend from 3 different pollsters with different methodologies.

Exactly. That's not how polling works.

Also, if his recent campaign 'successes' with Roy Moore, Rick Saccone, et al. are any indications, he can go ahead, by all means.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump’s Approval in the State:

March 10th 46-50 (Gravis)
April 12th 47-45 (Mason-Dixon)
April 20th 50-44 (Remington)

This is something to note.  A 10-point turnaround is definitely outside to MoE of both polls as well. As his approval continues to improve in the state it is clear that he is likely to campaign against McCaskill now.

What a horrible, misinformed post.

[Tintrlvr]

Seriously though, I don’t see any Democratic incumbent losing if this poll is accurate. The Senate is probably Lean/Likely D at this point.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’re only 6.5 months out still

And Missouri is also a strongly conservative state that Trump won by at least 17 percentage points. Hawley could pursue his attacks against McCaskill by mentioning the numerous times she voted to raise taxes or voted against cutting taxes, labeling her as « Claire McTaxAll » and as too liberal for Missouri.

https://www.clairemctaxall.com/

Yes, tie her to opposition to the very unpopular tax law. Winning strategy.