Are we underestimating Dean Heller's chances of re-election?

[Burke Bro]

After reading this opinion article, I've been inspired to share it with you all: https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2018-03-01/democrats-can-win-flakes-seat-in-arizona-not-hellers-in-nevada

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According to https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/12/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators/, 37% of Nevadans approve of Heller, whereas 40% disapprove. While his net approval rating is -3, 24% are still undecided.

I understand that he's losing in current polls, but is it possible that he could eek out another win?

[Doimper]

None of this will matter as long as Donald Trump is smeared all over every conceivable form of media.

[Blair]

I know there's a poll coming out of Nevada on Tuesday which is said to be 'interesting', and I wouldn't be surprised if it has a narrow Heller lead.

I think this race is a tossup, but a lot of people seem to already assume that the Democrats will pick up this seat without much of a battle.

[UWS]

Maybe. On one hand, he is trailing Rosen by only 5 percentage points. But on the other hand, Nevada is among the rare 2018 toss-ups states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. That's why I say maybe on whether we are underestimating Heller's chances.

[Oryxslayer]

There are two thing this article gets wrong: is Hellers middle road attitude, and Unions vs Reid Machine. The two big albatross's around Republican legislators in November are the Health Care bill, and Tax Reform. Heller voted for both of them. If we apply Cook Politicals congressional risk factors to Heller, they originally didn't do senate seats, then Heller hits all 5 non-monetary ones. Money levels are of course not comparable between house and senate seats. The second problem is Unions vs Reid. The article seems to think that Unions might have less incentive to show up due to policy issues. The problem with this is that it doesn't really matter concerning policy when Reid still wields influence in Clark and Rosen retains her ties to the Machine. Reid won't let his former house candidate out to dry. Perhaps as we get further from Reids retirement, the machine will crack. But not just two years.

Plus the likely gubernatorial Dem candidate is a Clark county officer, which will certainly motivate that county to turn up at the polls.

[TheSaint250]

I'd say many considering him DOA are not right, but he is certainly at a disadvantage, especially in the Trump-dominated climate.

[KingSweden]

I'd say many considering him DOA are not right, but he is certainly at a disadvantage, especially in the Trump-dominated climate.

^^^

I think calling him DOA is underestimating him, whereas calling him favored is overestimating him

[Xing]

LOL at the idea that the media/prognosticators consider him DOA. Pretty much every mainstream prognostication has this race as a Toss-Up, which is very generous to Heller. Whatever local advantages he has will be easily offset by his consistent votes with Trump and NV’s Democratic lean (not to mention the Reid Machine.) Even if unions may have less “incentive” to go after him, I have a hard time believing that they would prefer him to Rosen. Had he faced a competent opponent in 2012, he likely would’ve lost by a similar margin as Romney, and 2018 is looking to be at least as good for Democrats as 2012, if not better. Unless Rosen royally screws up, or 2018 proves to be a great year for Republicans, Heller is losing.

[YE]

I stopped reading when it mentioned unions. That's not how this works....

[MT Treasurer]

LOL at the idea that the media/prognosticators consider him DOA. Pretty much every mainstream prognostication has this race as a Toss-Up, which is very generous to Heller. Whatever local advantages he has will be easily offset by his consistent votes with Trump and NV’s Democratic lean (not to mention the Reid Machine.) Even if unions may have less “incentive” to go after him, I have a hard time believing that they would prefer him to Rosen. Had he faced a competent opponent in 2012, he likely would’ve lost by a similar margin as Romney, and 2018 is looking to be at least as good for Democrats as 2012, if not better. Unless Rosen royally screws up, or 2018 proves to be a great year for Republicans, Heller is losing.

Pretty much this. If anything, people (all the pundits/prognosticators in particular) are overestimating him and the incumbency advantage in general. There is no way Heller is winning if MO is Tossup, MT is Likely D, IN is Tilt D, etc. He could certainly surprise us in a neutral year, but even then it would be a narrow victory at best.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I don't think so, if anything, his chances are being overestimated by certain people. Nevada is still a pretty competitive state, but Heller isn't a great candidate even as an incumbent, AND this is a Trump midterm so he should lose by high single digits IMO.

[McGovernForPrez]

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LMAO it's too late for him to take the middle road. He already took the rightward approach. He voted multiple times for a healthcare bill nobody liked, including the popular Republican Governor of Nevada. Tark has already ruined any remote chance Heller had at re-election by forcing him rightward.

[KingSweden]

While i respect Liz Mair’s consistent critiques of Trump, her analysis is often far too bullish on Republicans. She leans to heavily on favorable data, even if it is dubious like Razzy and Morning Consult

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I stopped reading when it mentioned unions. That's not how this works....

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, I guess we'll find out on Tuesday when that high-quality poll comes out.

[LimoLiberal]

Mair's article reads like she asked a Heller campaign official "So, why is Jacky Rosen overrated and Heller underrated?" and she wrote down the response. No contextualization whatsoever. Fairly sloppy writing.


Edit: It's also from March 1st. Not sure why it was posted now.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I consider it a tossup but it is without a doubt one of the two most likely gains for the Democrats in a state that is steadily becoming less Republican.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It is extremely rare for Senate incumbents to survive a midterm election, when they are from the same party as the president, and the president lost the state.

The last time this happened was West Virginia in 2010.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It is extremely rare for Senate incumbents to survive a midterm election, when they are from the same party as the president, and the president lost the state.

The last time this happened was West Virginia in 2010.

It's not extremely rare lol. A bunch of people have done it in relatively recent times:

1998: Ernest Hollings, Byron Dorgan, Tom Daschle
2002: Susan Collins, Pete Domenici, Gordon Smith
2006: Olympia Snowe
2010: Joe Manchin (as mentioned)
2014: While no one actually pulled it off, Kay Hagan and Mark Begich came very close to doing it

[Torrain]

It is extremely rare for Senate incumbents to survive a midterm election, when they are from the same party as the president, and the president lost the state.

The last time this happened was West Virginia in 2010.

It's not extremely rare lol. A bunch of people have done it in relatively recent times:

1998: Ernest Hollings, Byron Dorgan, Tom Daschle
2002: Susan Collins, Pete Domenici, Gordon Smith
2006: Olympia Snowe
2010: Joe Manchin (as mentioned)
2014: While no one actually pulled it off, Kay Hagan and Mark Begich came very close to doing it

Your point is valid, it does happen from time to time, but the decrease over the last few cycles, coupled with polarisation and reduced ticket-splitting  definitely put Heller at a disadvantage.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It is extremely rare for Senate incumbents to survive a midterm election, when they are from the same party as the president, and the president lost the state.

The last time this happened was West Virginia in 2010.

It's not extremely rare lol. A bunch of people have done it in relatively recent times:

1998: Ernest Hollings, Byron Dorgan, Tom Daschle
2002: Susan Collins, Pete Domenici, Gordon Smith
2006: Olympia Snowe
2010: Joe Manchin (as mentioned)
2014: While no one actually pulled it off, Kay Hagan and Mark Begich came very close to doing it

Your point is valid, it does happen from time to time, but the decrease over the last few cycles, coupled with polarisation and reduced ticket-splitting  definitely put Heller at a disadvantage.

Not really arguing that Heller is favored, more against Solid using "extremely rare" as if this only happens once every hundred years or so.

[Torrain]

It is extremely rare for Senate incumbents to survive a midterm election, when they are from the same party as the president, and the president lost the state.

The last time this happened was West Virginia in 2010.

It's not extremely rare lol. A bunch of people have done it in relatively recent times:

1998: Ernest Hollings, Byron Dorgan, Tom Daschle
2002: Susan Collins, Pete Domenici, Gordon Smith
2006: Olympia Snowe
2010: Joe Manchin (as mentioned)
2014: While no one actually pulled it off, Kay Hagan and Mark Begich came very close to doing it

Your point is valid, it does happen from time to time, but the decrease over the last few cycles, coupled with polarisation and reduced ticket-splitting  definitely put Heller at a disadvantage.

Not really arguing that Heller is favored, more against Solid using "extremely rare" as if this only happens once every hundred years or so.

Point taken.

[NewYorkExpress]

Heller's about as likely to win as Democrats are to pick up either Mississippi Senate seat.

[Maxwell]

no.

but we might be underestimating the ability of the Democratic party to take defeat out of the jaws of victory.

Still, Heller is in a uniquely weak position - his state voted for Clinton, he's dramatically under-performing his opponent in terms of fundraising, he voted for both of the controversial GOP bills that came through, and had to shift right thanks to a primary challenge that was only abandoned because President Trump told the other guy to do something else. Heller is the most vulnerable incumbent by a long shot.

To me, I think Heller is decisively behind - I think it'll be a matter of whether it's close or not particularly close (which is between a 3 point loss and a 9 point loss, since Nevada seems to be kind of inelastic for Democrats but very elastic for Republicans)

[Blackacre]

Nah. Heller's pretty screwed.

If anything, pundits are going to start overrating Heller when they forget that NV is very hard to poll properly.