Indiana : Would Braun be stronger than Messer and Rokita?

[UWS]

Indiana, a red state that Donald Trump won by 19 percentage points, is among the Republicans' best opportunities for senate pick-ups in 2018. And yet a recent poll showed Joe Donnelly leading Todd Rokita by 18 percentage points and Luke Messer by 10. And for some weird reason, they did not include any general election poll between Donnelly and Mike Braun who is now leading the Republican field by 10 percentage points.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GM_Release_IN_04112018-v1.pdf

So according to you. Do you believe Mike Braun would be stronger than Messer and Rokita and does he have a real chance of taking this senate in Indiana and why?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Yep, Braun does seem like he'd win the seat back to the GOP. That's why they refused to release the H2H with Donnelly.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm going with a maybe, but leaning toward yes. It is unusual for a state legislator to be better positioned than a US House member for a Senate race, just because they have a smaller base of constituents that they are already acquainted with (except the California and Texas state senates), but this does seem like it might be an exception.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

DONnElly is DONE-zo. I can see the GOP coalescing around Braun now.

[UWS]

DONnElly is DONE-zo. I can see the GOP coalescing around Braun now.

Surely with a « I Like Mike » logo.

[KingSweden]

Inclined to think so

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Rotika seems like a lunatic, and Messer seems like a generic DC swamp politician.

Meanwhile, Braun seems to be running a competent campaign. I'm not sure if it's enough to beat a strong incumbent like Donnelly, but he has the best chance.

I would say Braun wins by 3 right now, but we'll see.

[Blackacre]

Yes, of the three, he is the strongest, but that doesn't make him the favorite against Donnelly.

[Ye We Can]

I like Mike

[MarkD]

Have Messer and Rokita been attacking each other a lot? That could explain why Braun is out in front. It's a lot like the way Russ Feingold won his first Democratic primary for U.S. Senator in 1992.

[Oryxslayer]

Have Messer and Rokita been attacking each other a lot? That could explain why Braun is out in front. It's a lot like the way Russ Feingold won his first Democratic primary for U.S. Senator in 1992.

Originally they were, which is what allowed Braun to sneak into relevance in the first place. Now the two recognize he is a legitimate threat, and are attacking Braun as well.

I voted yes.

[Maxwell]

Braun would be much better than Messer and Rokita, but I still think Donnelly is a mild mild favorite.

[RogueBeaver]

Reminds me of Deb Fischer in 2012.

[Hoosier_Nick]

Absolutely

[StateBoiler]

Have Messer and Rokita been attacking each other a lot? That could explain why Braun is out in front. It's a lot like the way Russ Feingold won his first Democratic primary for U.S. Senator in 1992.

Originally they were, which is what allowed Braun to sneak into relevance in the first place. Now the two recognize he is a legitimate threat, and are attacking Braun as well.

Not true. Braun entered late compared to Messer and Rokita. A year ago at the Lincoln Day Dinner I attended all 4 announced they were running Senate candidates stood up and talked for a couple minutes about themselves - Messer, Rokita, and 2 others that did not make the primary ballot. Braun made his interest public much later in the year - early fall. He also put up ads very early compared to the other two (December?) who have not responded near as much as him, due to both of Messer's and Rokita's fundraising numbers being seen as lackluster, compared to Braun who has personally financed his campaign.

They're both attacking him now more than they are each other, which leads one to think their polling numbers see him as the frontrunner/most serious challenge.

[Politician]

Braun is the GOP's best candidate if they want to take down Donnelly. If he wins the primary, the race is a pure tossup. If one of those clowns wins, it's Tilt/Lean D.