Turkish snap election, June 2018

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 78.7% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 54.6%

With 69.8% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    56.0% 
CHP-IYI-SP 32.6%
HDP           10.0%

[jaichind]

MHP doing surprising well in terms of vote share.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 82.7% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 54.2%

With 74.8% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    55.6% 
CHP-IYI-SP 33.0%
HDP           10.2%

[jaichind]

Greece, Hungary, Guinea, Venezuela officials have called Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to congratulate him on the results, according to statement from foreign ministry.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This is turning into Iran 2009.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Greece, Hungary, Guinea, Venezuela officials have called Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to congratulate him on the results, according to statement from foreign ministry.

Greece, really?

Other than that, the list makes all too much sense...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is turning into Iran 2009.

In a sense that tricks might have been used to magnify the victory margin in an election in which the incumbent was always favored? True, it might fit.
Erdogan would probably would have won any free and fair election...

[BBD]

The real election results:

[Oryxslayer]

AKP drops below 300, buy AKP-MHP still have a majority.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is turning into Iran 2009.

In a sense that tricks might have been used to magnify the victory margin in an election in which the incumbent was always favored? True, it might fit.
Erdogan would probably would have won any free and fair election...

TIL it's fine to cheat if you were going to win anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is turning into Iran 2009.

In a sense that tricks might have been used to magnify the victory margin in an election in which the incumbent was always favored? True, it might fit.
Erdogan would probably would have won any free and fair election...

TIL it's fine to cheat if you were going to win anyway.

Actually, if you used your reading comprehension skills, you would have seen that I have said that pretty much everyone running in the election was flawed one way or another. Even Erdogan.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 86.1% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 54.0%

With 78.5% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    55.3%  
CHP-IYI-SP 33.1%
HDP           10.3%

Actually from AKP's point of view, once HDP crosses 10% is it better if HDP does better in vote share which means more wasted anti-AKP votes in the rest of non-urban Turkey when translating into seats.  So AKP should be rooting for HDP relative to CHP now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is turning into Iran 2009.

In a sense that tricks might have been used to magnify the victory margin in an election in which the incumbent was always favored? True, it might fit.
Erdogan would probably would have won any free and fair election...

TIL it's fine to cheat if you were going to win anyway.

Actually, if you used your reading comprehension skills, you would have seen that I have said that pretty much everyone running in the election was flawed one way or another. Even Erdogan.

Rigging elections is not "a flaw".

[jaichind]

This is turning into Iran 2009.

Well, what proof does we have of fraud other some some CHP tweets.  Just because he counting pattern is skewed does not prove that much especially when it is consistent with historical norms.  No one is going to accuse VA of cheating just because the vote count there always starts with a very pro-GOP lean followed by a DEM comeback as the count gets to very end.   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is turning into Iran 2009.

Well, what proof does we have of fraud other some some CHP tweets.  Just because he counting pattern is skewed does not prove that much especially when it is consistent with historical norms.  No one is going to accuse VA of cheating just because the vote count there always starts with a very pro-GOP lean followed by a DEM comeback as the count gets to very end.  

I don't think the opposition is completely trustworthy either in this - they have an agenda. They have obvious interest in entrenching the narrative the election was stolen regardless of whether or not it really was stolen.
It might be like Iran 2009. It's not certain.

[Tender Branson]

Erdogan now has 24 million votes already and needs ca. 26 million out of 52 million cast to remain above 50%.

There are some 9 million votes left to count and Erdogan only needs 2 of them ...

In other words: the opposition roughly needs about 80% of the remaining vote to kick him below 50%.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 88.8% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 53.7%

With 82.8% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    54.9% 
CHP-IYI-SP 33.4%
HDP           10.5%

It seems SP's alliance with CHP-IYI did not help since at 1.4% they were not able to qualify in any seats anywhere, even in Istanbul.  So we can view 1.4% of the 33.3% of CHP-IYI-SP as wasted.

Also it seems AKP-MHP is converging toward a tiny over-performance relative to Erdogan's support levels.  All things equal the AKP-MHP vote tracks Erdogan vote pretty well across different regions.

[Oryxslayer]

Every box opened in Istanbul sees the province drop Erdogan support by 0.1%. He is at 50.3% right now and will probably drop below 50.

[jaichind]

IYI now also above 10%.  So in the end this alliance rules did not make a difference.  Every party that will end up with seats all got above 10% of the vote.

[DabbingSanta]

These elections are rigged anyway.. we all knew Erodgan was gonna win.

[Oryxslayer]

Ince tweets that only 37% of the vote is counted according to the official electoral board and want his people to stay. We are entering a confusing area as the opposition has every motive to make the elections appear dishonest, but Erdogan has every reason to win and the tools to fudge the numbers.

[Tender Branson]

We are now close to the point where Erdogan only needs 10% of the remaining votes and he's definitely over 50%.

Ince tweets that only 37% of the vote is counted according to the official electoral board and want his people to stay. We are entering a confusing area as the opposition has every motive to make the elections appear dishonest, but Erdogan has every reason to win and the tools to fudge the numbers.

That doesn't make any sense, because 45 million out of 52 million expected votes are already counted.

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

With 92.5% of the vote counted it is Erdogan at 53.3%

With 87.7% of the vote counted it is
AKP-MHP    54.5% 
CHP-IYI-SP 33.7%
HDP           10.7%

[jaichind]

This election from a party vote of view looks a lot like June 2015 election

AKP  40.9%
CHP  25.0%
MHP  16.3%
HDP  13.1%
SP      0.7%

2015 June MHP vote sent to MHP and some went to IYI while some of the CHP and HDP vote went to IYI as well.  Overall there is a small swing toward AKP from June 2015.

[JGibson]

TRT is calling the Presidential election for tyrant Erdoğan, per @TRTWorld's Twitter.

https://twitter.com/trtworld/status/1010955796191072256