Turkish snap election, June 2018

[ON Progressive]

I'm not gonna buy that Hakkari and Sirnak are going AKP.

[jaichind]

Acılan sandık % 18,7

Erdoğan: 55,6
İnce: 26,8
Akşener: 8.3
Demirtaş: 7.9
Karamollaoğlu: 0.8
Perinçek: 0,6

AK Parti: 50,1
CHP: 28,7
İP: 7,7
MHP: 4,6
HDP: 7,6
Diger: 1.3

Cumhur İttifakı: 54.7
Millet İttifakı: 37.7
HDP: 7,6

---------

Erdoğan at 55.6% with 18.7% of the vote counted is bad news for him and seems to imply he will fall below 50% in the final result ..

[Oryxslayer]

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-elections-2018/

Results page I found. Still no data.

[jaichind]

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey-elections-2018/

Results page I found. Still no data.

All my sources are from twitter ... so take it with a big grain of salt ...

[America Needs R'hllor]

I see we're doing the classic atlas practice of panicking from early returns/turnout for this election too

[Antonio the Sixth]

I see we're doing the classic atlas practice of panicking from early returns/turnout for this election too

It's raining in Izmir!

[ON Progressive]

I see we're doing the classic atlas practice of panicking from early returns/turnout for this election too

It's raining in Izmir!

It's also raining in NoVan.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, official results are coming apparently in 10-15 minutes, so no need for rumor-mongering.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I see we're doing the classic atlas practice of panicking from early returns/turnout for this election too

It's raining in Izmir!

PROJECTION:
Erdogan- 56%
Gillespie- 42%
Ince- 1.9%
Clinton- 0.1%

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

Has some real results, at last for the parliamentary vote

Has AKP-MHP at 69.4% with 6.2% of the vote counted ...

[jaichind]

[parochial boy]

Seems like the areas with the most counted so far are all the strong AKP areas on the Anatolian black sea coast; so we have a double effect of results from good AKP areas within good AKP provinces

[Tender Branson]

19% counted:

60% Erdogan
26% Ince

Turnout: 87%

Looks like this is coming mostly from very AKP/Erdogan-leaning areas.

[jaichind]

19% counted:

60% Erdogan
26% Ince

Turnout: 87%

Looks like this is coming mostly from very AKP/Erdogan-leaning areas.

Using Nov 2015 as calibration this seems to imply Erdogan will end up with 51% but if you use 2017 referendum as calibration it seems to imply Erdogan at 48%

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/

Has Erdogan at 59.3% with 21.5% of the vote counted.  Relative to 2017 this is not looking good for him to win on the first round.

[DavidB.]

Turnout 86.9%. Only microstates, some states with mandatory voting, and Denmark and Sweden reach such percentages. Really don't understand how turnout in Turkey is always so high.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010913116593500160

[Tender Branson]

This map here

http://secim2018.trthaber.com

has precincts counted by province.

What's worrying is that Erdogan is clearly ahead even in Istanbul and Ankara at this point. And there's also 25% counted already.

If this holds up, he might remain above 50% ...

[jaichind]

https://www.yenisafak.com/


With 8.7% of the vote counted AKP-MHP at 67.1%  CHP-IYI-SP 23.6% HDP 6.8%.  HDP seems very low even at this stage.  HDP has to hope that the Kurdish aeras have not really started to count.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout 86.9%. Only microstates, some states with mandatory voting, and Denmark and Sweden reach such percentages. Really don't understand how turnout in Turkey is always so high.

Italy used to have turnouts in the 90s back in the heydays of the First Republic (and even in 2008 it was still above 80).

[ON Progressive]

This map here

http://secim2018.trthaber.com

has precincts counted by province.

What's worrying is that Erdogan is clearly ahead even in Istanbul and Ankara at this point. And there's also 25% counted already.

If this holds up, he might remain above 50% ...

Istanbul's initial results showed the referendum passing there but it ended up voting no (not by enough though).

[DavidB.]

What's worrying is that Erdogan is clearly ahead even in Istanbul and Ankara at this point. And there's also 25% counted already.

He's going to be ahead in most places, because the opposition vote is split in the first round. What matters if he's going to get over 50% of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

25% counted:

58.6% Erdogan
27.0% Ince

[DavidB.]

Turnout 86.9%. Only microstates, some states with mandatory voting, and Denmark and Sweden reach such percentages. Really don't understand how turnout in Turkey is always so high.

Italy used to have turnouts in the 90s back in the heydays of the First Republic (and even in 2008 it was still above 80).

True, Italy also has historically high turnout (the Netherlands and some other countries used to have turnout in the high 80s too, back in the 80s). But Turkey is clearly an outlier in terms of development vs. turnout.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sultan Erdogan isn't winning European Turkey. Deeply disturbing.