Turkish snap election, June 2018

[Antonio the Sixth]

So they have a full 4 hours to rig the results before anyone can have a look at them. Wonderful.

[jaichind]

What a ballot looks like



It shows the party alliances fairly clearly

[jaichind]

So they have a full 4 hours to rig the results before anyone can have a look at them. Wonderful.

They have embargo every election and results starts coming out in less than an hour every time ..

[Oryxslayer]

Also, why is there a 4 hour embargo?

Not sure why there's a 4-hour embargo until the results from the Turkish election commission are forwarded to the media ...

In Venezuela, they do it because they need to fake the results in favour of the government party in these hours, if they do not like the results that are sent to them from the precincts.

According to the Guardian, this embargo time has historically been reduced once the govt is sure there is nobody left in line voting.

Also, does anyone know why the early votes favor the AKP - I also recall this from the referendum. Is it because just pro-AKP parts of the provinces are counted first, of is it because of a reporting bias  where some regions count quicker? Or is it because the ex-pat vote comes in first which gives erdogan a nice cushion?

Edit: Looks like this was just answered

[Tender Branson]

Interesting ballot pictures, jaichind ... a bullet for Demirtas and the Kurds.

[jaichind]

Interesting ballot pictures, jaichind ... a bullet for Demirtas and the Kurds.

I found it in tweet somewhere.  No idea what the context was ... it seems it is either pro- or anti- HDP

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1010890561832783874

We knew turnout was going to be high - it just depends which areas: the pro-opposition coast/kurdish regions or the pro-erdogan interior are producing the 90%'s rather then the 80%'s.

[ON Progressive]

Is there any chance of the Nation Alliance ever joining a coalition with the HDP for an anti-Erdogan majority, or no? I'm thinking no, considering nobody would work with the HDP in June 2015.

[jaichind]

CNN Turk quotes  Erdogan "It is too early to say something, We are good"

[Oryxslayer]

CNN Turk quotes  Erdogan "It is too early to say something, We are good"

Link? I wouldn't mind a broadcast kinda free from the general AKP censorship.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Is there any chance of the Nation Alliance ever joining a coalition with the HDP for an anti-Erdogan majority, or no? I'm thinking no, considering nobody would work with the HDP in June 2015.

The CHP was fine working with the HDP in 2015, it was only the MHP that objected and that will no longer be an issue. The question is whether or not HDP and IYI can work together

[jaichind]

This picture is making its rounds on twitter.  Shows ballots for HDP thrown in the garbage ..

[ON Progressive]

This picture is making its rounds on twitter.  Shows ballots for HDP thrown in the garbage ..

Disgusting but not surprising.

[DavidB.]

If AK don't actually win this, they'll make sure they win through fraud. And if even that isn't possible, I don't necessarily expect a peaceful transition of power.

[jaichind]

Not sure how official this is but some ultra-early results from some isolated areas have Erdogan way ahead

[jaichind]

CNN Turk quotes  Erdogan "It is too early to say something, We are good"

Link? I wouldn't mind a broadcast kinda free from the general AKP censorship.

Sorry .. that came from proprietary news wires on Bloomberg 

[jaichind]

Is there any chance of the Nation Alliance ever joining a coalition with the HDP for an anti-Erdogan majority, or no? I'm thinking no, considering nobody would work with the HDP in June 2015.

I think even if Erdogan is defeated it would be hard for all anti-Erdogan forces to come together to form a stable ruling bloc.  That I assume is a key part of the Erdogan campaign narrative ..

[jaichind]

It seems the blackout will be lifted anytime says various Turkish media.

[jaichind]

Found on twitter

İl: AMASYA
Açılan sandık: % 21

RT ERDOĞAN % 54.1
M İNCE 17.2
M AKŞENER 18.7
S DEMİRTAŞ 0.1
T KARAMOLLAOĞLU 7.5
D PERİNÇEK 2.4

MİLLETVEKİLİ

AK PARTİ 44.6
CHP 17.2
MHP 12.6
 İP 13.7
HDP 0.1
SP 11.2
Diğer 0.6

-----------

Back in Nov 2015 AMASYA went went 51.66% for AKP.  If so here AKP+MHP is beating AKP of Nov 2015... good sign for  Erdogan/AKP

[jaichind]

Result from twitter from what must be a very heavy Kurdish area

[Oryxslayer]

Found on twitter

İl: AMASYA
Açılan sandık: % 21

RT ERDOĞAN % 54.1
M İNCE 17.2
M AKŞENER 18.7
S DEMİRTAŞ 0.1
T KARAMOLLAOĞLU 7.5
D PERİNÇEK 2.4

MİLLETVEKİLİ

AK PARTİ 44.6
CHP 17.2
MHP 12.6
 İP 13.7
HDP 0.1
SP 11.2
Diğer 0.6

-----------

Back in Nov 2015 AMASYA went went 51.66% for AKP.  If so here AKP+MHP is beating AKP of Nov 2015... good sign for  Erdogan/AKP

Did you listen when we said the early results are favorable to Erdogan? This is both true nationally and provincially, with the later numbers being more opposition friendly. If anything its a problem for Erdogan that he is not further ahead in the early numbers here.

[ON Progressive]

Found on twitter

İl: AMASYA
Açılan sandık: % 21

RT ERDOĞAN % 54.1
M İNCE 17.2
M AKŞENER 18.7
S DEMİRTAŞ 0.1
T KARAMOLLAOĞLU 7.5
D PERİNÇEK 2.4

MİLLETVEKİLİ

AK PARTİ 44.6
CHP 17.2
MHP 12.6
 İP 13.7
HDP 0.1
SP 11.2
Diğer 0.6

-----------

Back in Nov 2015 AMASYA went went 51.66% for AKP.  If so here AKP+MHP is beating AKP of Nov 2015... good sign for  Erdogan/AKP

Did you listen when we said the early results are favorable to Erdogan? This is both true nationally and provincially, with the later numbers being more opposition friendly. If anything its a problem for Erdogan that he is not further ahead in the early numbers here.

Yeah, I remember Istanbul was initially Yes on the 2017 referendum then later results made it no.

[jaichind]

Found on twitter

İl: AMASYA
Açılan sandık: % 21

RT ERDOĞAN % 54.1
M İNCE 17.2
M AKŞENER 18.7
S DEMİRTAŞ 0.1
T KARAMOLLAOĞLU 7.5
D PERİNÇEK 2.4

MİLLETVEKİLİ

AK PARTİ 44.6
CHP 17.2
MHP 12.6
 İP 13.7
HDP 0.1
SP 11.2
Diğer 0.6

-----------

Back in Nov 2015 AMASYA went went 51.66% for AKP.  If so here AKP+MHP is beating AKP of Nov 2015... good sign for  Erdogan/AKP

Did you listen when we said the early results are favorable to Erdogan? This is both true nationally and provincially, with the later numbers being more opposition friendly. If anything its a problem for Erdogan that he is not further ahead in the early numbers here.

Yes. but this is for a particular province AMASYA where I think comparison is more apt

[jaichind]

On twitter I found

Türkiye Geneli Açılan sandık: %9.14 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: %63.67 Muharrem İnce: %22.67 Meral Akşener: %7.94 Demirtaş: %4.60

which is 9.14% vote counted ... if true and calibrated to 2015 Nov election results reporting patterns should get  Erdoğan just above 50% in the final result. 

[jaichind]