Very early 2022 House rating: Dems win 2018 and 2020

[Sir Mohamed]

It's obviously more wild guessing than a reliable projection: Let's say Dems win the House in 2018 with a net 30-40 seat gain. In 2020, they keep the House with minor gains (5-10 seats) and a Democratic president gets elected. How likely is it that the majority is gone after the next mid-term in 2022, as it happened to Clinton, Obama and Trump before? For sure that depends on the president's approval rating, but I consider it unlikely that he or she will fall below 45%, considering that most Demos/liberals are going to stick with the their prez regardless of almost anything.

I think the odds are 50/50 at best for Dems. I wouldn't be surprised if we look back in 20 years and see every president, regardless of party, since Clinton (except for W) losing the House in their first term; giving each prez effectively two years to govern (or the ability to pass their agenda).

[here2view]

I think if I had to bet right now, I'd say the following happens:

2018: Dems pick up around 35 seats in the House, so it's about 225-210 in their favor. Senate is a 50/50 split. They lose one of Missouri/Indiana and gain Nevada and Arizona.

2020: Democrat President wins with 280-320 electoral votes (not a blowout, and less than 2012 Obama but comparable to 2016 Trump.) Pick up 5-10 seats in the House increasing their lead to about 230-205. Also have 52-48 Senate advantage, through gaining Colorado, North Carolina, and Maine. Republicans gain Alabama.

2022: Dems lose about 20 seats in the House, but still maintain a very thin majority (like 5 seats.) This can obviously switch power to Republicans if the wave isn't so big in 2018, or Dems pick up closer to 5 seats in 2020 rather than 10. So the House would be around 220-215. Senate sees Democrats pick up Arizona, while Republicans gain New Hampshire. Senate still favors Dems 52-48.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Bloodbath under a Democratic president. Best to hold on to Congress for now (assuming a win in 2018/2020) and rebuild in the legislatures until 2024.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Our politics is caught in a rut of being cyclical. If there is a Democratic President in 2022, it will be ugly and the Democrats will lose both chambers of Congress. It's as simple as that.

[Skill and Chance]

If partisan redistricting is still legal or mostly legal, I would favor them to retain because it's the election year ending in 2 and we are assuming they won big in the years ending in 8 and 0.

[Devils30]

If Dems win big in 2018, 2020, they will likely have a lot of Governors but probably not many legislatures due to GOP gerrymanders. This will create a lot of court drawn districts and possibly very fair maps that both sides are at least not too bothered by.

[Sadader]

Our politics is caught in a rut of being cyclical. If there is a Democratic President in 2022, it will be ugly and the Democrats will lose both chambers of Congress. It's as simple as that.

2016-2022 is fairly maxed out senate cycle for Republicans, so the Democrats have good odds retain control of the Senate, as long as they have 53+ seats. I can’t feasibly see the Republicans taking more than NV/NH/CO.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Our politics is caught in a rut of being cyclical. If there is a Democratic President in 2022, it will be ugly and the Democrats will lose both chambers of Congress. It's as simple as that.

2016-2022 is fairly maxed out senate cycle for Republicans, so the Democrats have good odds retain control of the Senate, as long as they have 53+ seats. I can’t feasibly see the Republicans taking more than NV/NH/CO.

I guess I forgot to factor in that the Republicans didn't take the Senate under Obama until 2014, even after a midterm election as successful as 2010 for them. It is fair to say that the Senate is probably less vulnerable to the political environment's influences that we often see in the House when the opposition party succeeds.