Realignment Redistricting Series

[GlobeSoc]

Hey guys, I'm going to be doing a redistricting series of all 50 states based on three assumptions:

1. 2018-2021 have been extremely favorable to democrats and ballot initiatives for independent commissions (You'll be able to see the state control/redistricting rules per state in a post below)

2. Gill v Whitford has abolished 'hard' gerrymandering, but soft gerrymandering, that is shifting battlegrounds to be slightly more tilting to one party than they 'should' be, is still allowed.

3. The re-apportionment looks something like https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-05/states-in-west-south-projected-to-gain-house-seats-after-2020

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Table of contents:

1. State Control and Redistricting Rules
2. Alabama

Sadly I will have to use 2010 DRA data for this

[GlobeSoc]

Reserved

[GlobeSoc]

CD-01: R+16
CD-02: R+5
CD-03: D+11
CD-04: R+26
CD-05: R+32
CD-06: R+18

CD-02 is the most notable district, as it was drawn to be lean R by 2016 PVI in order to prevent the courts from striking down the map because republicans wanted to prevent a second majority minority district from being drawn.

State total:
4 safe R districts, 1 competitive, 1 safe D district

Cumulative total:
4 safe R districts, 1 competitive, 1 safe D district

[GlobeSoc]

CD-01: D+2
CD-02: D+1
CD-03: R+19
CD-04: R+13
CD-05: D+12
CD-06: D+10
CD-07: R+12
CD-08: R+2
CD-09: R+14
CD-10: R+2

Dem trifecta allows the independent commission to do its work

State total:
4 Safe R, 4 competitive, 2 safe D

Cumulative total:
8 safe R, 5 competitive, 3 safe D

Border between CD-01 and CD-02 might not be realistic, but the general character of the two districts applies.

[muon2]

Hey guys, I'm going to be doing a redistricting series of all 50 states based on three assumptions:

1. 2018-2021 have been extremely favorable to democrats and ballot initiatives for independent commissions (You'll be able to see the state control/redistricting rules per state in a post below)

2. Gill v Whitford has abolished 'hard' gerrymandering, but soft gerrymandering, that is shifting battlegrounds to be slightly more tilting to one party than they 'should' be, is still allowed.

3. The re-apportionment looks something like https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-05/states-in-west-south-projected-to-gain-house-seats-after-2020

Sadly I will have to use 2010 DRA data for this

Do you have a spreadsheet that you can use? It's not hard to download the Census estimates for 2017, compare them to 2010, and project by county to 2020. It's not perfect, but it's a lot better than using 2010.

[GlobeSoc]

Hey guys, I'm going to be doing a redistricting series of all 50 states based on three assumptions:

1. 2018-2021 have been extremely favorable to democrats and ballot initiatives for independent commissions (You'll be able to see the state control/redistricting rules per state in a post below)

2. Gill v Whitford has abolished 'hard' gerrymandering, but soft gerrymandering, that is shifting battlegrounds to be slightly more tilting to one party than they 'should' be, is still allowed.

3. The re-apportionment looks something like https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-05/states-in-west-south-projected-to-gain-house-seats-after-2020

Sadly I will have to use 2010 DRA data for this

Do you have a spreadsheet that you can use? It's not hard to download the Census estimates for 2017, compare them to 2010, and project by county to 2020. It's not perfect, but it's a lot better than using 2010.

I have no idea how to do this, but I'm all ears.

[cvparty]

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/counties/totals/co-est2017-alldata.csv you could extrapolate from this data for 2020 county pop estimates

[muon2]

You can also download the county estimates for each state as an Excel file. Then add a column using 2017 and 2010 (or something more recent) to project to 2020. Have you worked with Excel spreadsheets before?

[jimrtex]

Hey guys, I'm going to be doing a redistricting series of all 50 states based on three assumptions:

1. 2018-2021 have been extremely favorable to democrats and ballot initiatives for independent commissions (You'll be able to see the state control/redistricting rules per state in a post below)

2. Gill v Whitford has abolished 'hard' gerrymandering, but soft gerrymandering, that is shifting battlegrounds to be slightly more tilting to one party than they 'should' be, is still allowed.

3. The re-apportionment looks something like https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-05/states-in-west-south-projected-to-gain-house-seats-after-2020

Sadly I will have to use 2010 DRA data for this

Do you have a spreadsheet that you can use? It's not hard to download the Census estimates for 2017, compare them to 2010, and project by county to 2020. It's not perfect, but it's a lot better than using 2010.

I have no idea how to do this, but I'm all ears.

Let's say that you have the county names in column A, the April 2010 census populations in column B, and the July 2017 estimate in column C, then the annual rate of increase/decrease in column D would be calculated by:

D1:  =POWER(C1/B1, 1/7.25)

7.25 is used since the estimates are for July 1, rather than April 1 when the census was taken. It is 7.25 years later.

To exponentially project this for April 2020 in column E.

E1: =B1*POWER(D1,10)

I generally draw my maps outside of DRA, using a spreadsheet and QGIS, and then transcribe the districts into DRA to get the political data. This won't get the correct population in DRA must will get the political data for 2016 for the same area (the 2016 results reflect to some extent the population change and political shifts from 2010 to 2016).