Democratic path to supermajority by 2020? (For fun)

[hurricanehink]

Just for fun, what do you think is the easiest Democratic path to a 60 seat majority in the Senate by 2020? (Out of respect for John McCain, who is very much alive and is a fighter, please do not include his seat)

• Nevada (2018) Jacky Rosen defeats Dean Heller
• Arizona (2018) Kyrsten Sinema defeats Keli Ward
• Tennessee (2018) Phil Bredesen defeats Marsha Blackburn
• Texas (2018) Beto O’Rourke defeats Ted Cruz
• Colorado (2020) John Hickenlooper defeats Cory Gardner
• Maine (2020) Sara Gideon defeats Paul LePage (Collins retires)
• Montana (2020) Steve Bullock defeats Steve Daines
• Iowa (2020) Tom Vilsack defeats Joni Ernst
• North Carolina (2020) Darren Jackson defeats Thom Tillis
• Alaska (2020) Ethan Berkowitz defeats Dan Sullivan
• Georgia (2020) Kasim Reed defeats David Purdue

[YE]

Swap TX for WV if Capito retires and Ojeda wins this year?

[McGovernForPrez]

Swap TX for WV if Capito retires and Ojeda wins this year?

I think Ojeda is more likely to run for Governor than Senate. His beef with Justice is unparalleled.

[Hindsight was 2020]

What about LA in 2020 if Bel Edwards runs?

[PAK Man]

Here's mine:

2018 cycle:
- Rosen defeats Heller (D+1)
- Sinema defeats McSally (D+1)
- Bredesen defeats Blackburn (D+1)

Democrats hold all seats they were defending

2020 cycle (Democrats control Senate 52-48)
- Jones is defeated by Robert Aderholt; R+1
- Sullivan is defeated by Ethan Berkowitz; D+1
- Gardner is defeated by Ed Perlmutter; D+1
- Perdue is defeated by TBD Democrat (Reed has really seemed like he's not interested in higher office); D+1
- Ernst is defeated by Rita Hart (recent blog described the state senator, who represents a swing district, as being the Democratic version of Ernst); D+1
- McConnell retires; open seat is picked up by Adam Edelen; D+1
- Collins retires; open seat is picked up by Chellie Pingree; D+1
- Daines is defeated by TBD Democrat (Bullock seems more likely to run for president, plus Montana has a decent bench of Democrats); D+1
- Tillis is defeated by TBD Democrat (perhaps a state legislator); D+1
- Rounds is defeated by Brendan Johnson; D+1
- Cornyn is defeated by Julian Castro; D+1

This gives Democrats a supermajority with 61 seats.

[Orser67]

I really doubt it happens without a vacancy or a party switch in a Class 3 seat (McCain, Rubio, Toomey, Ron Johnson, etc.), but I'm also feeling pretty pessimistic about Dems chances in MS and TX in 2018.

2018: win in NV, AZ, and TN, defend all seats (Dems at 52 seats)
2020: win AK, CO, GA, IA, ME, MT, NC, defend all seats (Dems at 59 seats)

If Trump wins re-election in 2020, I could see something like this:
2018: win in NV, AZ, and TN, defend all seats (Dems at 52 seats)
2020: win CO, ME, lose AL (Dems at 53 seats)
2022: win AZ, AK, IA, WI, OH, PA, NC, GA, FL, MO, IN defend all seats (Dems at 64 seats)
2024: Lose TN and WV (due to retirements), defend all other seats (Dems at 62 seats)

[Blackacre]

2018: Dems hold all their seats, and win AZ, NV, TN, and one of TX and MS-S. 53/47

2020: Dems hold all their seats, and win NC, IA, CO, GA, ME, AK, and one of MT and KY. 60/40.

[Rhenna]

2018
Rosen defeats Heller
Bredesen defeats Blackburn
Synema defeats Arpaio (53-47)

2020
Byrne defeats Jones (R Gain)
Berkowitz defeats Sullivan
Hickenlooper defeats Gardner
Tomlinson defeats Perdue
Finkenauer defeats Ernst
A. Beshear defeats Bevin (McConnell retires)
Golden defeats LePage (Collins retires)
Bullock defeats Daines
Cooper and Tillis switch races
Henry defeats Pruitt (Inhofe retires) (61-39)

[YE]

OK isn't electing a Democrat anytime soon. And even if it somehow did, Doug Jones easily keep his seat.

Honestly looking at the races, come to think about Dems might have a shot at an open KS seat if Roberts retires and one of the gubernatorial primary losers preferably Josh Savaty runs. Is there a fringe lunatic on the GOP side to run in SC and primary Lindsey Graham? There's always Archie Parnell. SD is gone for the Democrats I think at this point; the bench was just drained out during the Obama years. And as for LA and AR.... no, just no.

[Lamda]

2018: Keeping all the seats+gaining NV,AZ,TN
2020:Keeping all the seats+gaining CO,NC,GA,MT,AK,IA,KS and Maine after Collins retired/losses primary challenge

[Xing]

This won't happen, but just for fun...

2018: Democrats keep all of their seats, and pick up NV, AZ, TN, and MS-Special
2020: Democrats keep all of their seats (even AL), and pick up AK, CO, MT, IA, NC, GA, ME

A (somewhat) more plausible scenario would be for them to do it in 2022...

2018: Democrats pick up NV, AZ, and TN
2020: Democrats pick up CO and ME, but lose AL while Trump ekes out a win nationally
2022 (Trump midterm): Democrats pick up AZ, IA, MO, WI, PA, NC, and FL