HI-SEN: Thomas Edward White (R) in

[I’m not Stu]

Safe D, but Hawaii now has a GOP candidate. Vermont is now the only state without a Republican running for Senate.

[Canis]

When is the vermont filing deadline?

[I’m not Stu]

The Vermont filing deadline is May 31st.

[Canis]

Some noname will fill before the deadline then imo

[Jeppe]

That’s too bad, hopefully Hirono will still break 80%.

[UncleSam]

Does it matter?

[NewYorkExpress]

That’s too bad, hopefully Hirono will still break 80%.

I still think someone should primary her (see Ed Case primarying Akaka in 2006), because letting someone with stage four Kidney Cancer waltz to re-election is folly.

[Jeppe]

That’s too bad, hopefully Hirono will still break 80%.

I still think someone should primary her (see Ed Case primarying Akaka in 2006), because letting someone with stage four Kidney Cancer waltz to re-election is folly.

You know she’s doing  fine, right? Kidney cancer is fairly benign as far as cancers go. You make it sound like she’s on death’s door like McCain, when she’s basically in remission.

Hawaii has and will continue to have a Democratic Governor, so her replacement will be a Democrat anyway, if she does indeed pass away.

[Dr. MB]

Regarding Vermont, will Folasade Adeluola/Jon Svitavsky appear on the ballot as a Democrat, or will Sanders get enough write-ins to win the D primary?

[NewYorkExpress]

Regarding Vermont, will Folasade Adeluola/Jon Svitavsky appear on the ballot as a Democrat, or will Sanders get enough write-ins to win the D primary?

I think Sanders wins the primary. He's very popular in Vermont.

[Jeppe]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

[Jeppe]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

[Dr. MB]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

[MAINEiac4434]

Regarding Vermont, will Folasade Adeluola/Jon Svitavsky appear on the ballot as a Democrat, or will Sanders get enough write-ins to win the D primary?

Yes, absolutely.

[Jeppe]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

[I’m not Stu]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

[Jeppe]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is an entirely different world. Political alliances can transcend racial groups, and more and more Hawaiians are mixed, but there are still significant differences in voting habits between the ethnicities, even within the Democratic electorate. It wasn’t a coincidence that Hanabusa won a large majority of Asian-American voters in the 2014 Senate primary, while Schatz got similar numbers among white voters.

Voters are naturally drawn to candidates that have similar backgrounds and upbringing, that’s why Obama got over 80% of the black vote in the 2008 Democratic Party against another white political figure the black community knew well and actually liked. Exceptions always exist, like Steve Cohen in Memphis or Mia Love in Utah, but again, they’re the exception, not the rule.

[I’m not Stu]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is an entirely different world. Political alliances can transcend racial groups, and more and more Hawaiians are mixed, but there are still significant differences in voting habits between the ethnicities, even within the Democratic electorate. It wasn’t a coincidence that Hanabusa won a large majority of Asian-American voters in the 2014 Senate primary, while Schatz got similar numbers among white voters.

Voters are naturally drawn to candidates that have similar backgrounds and upbringing, that’s why Obama got over 80% of the black vote in the 2008 Democratic Party against another white political figure the black community knew well and actually liked. Exceptions always exist, like Steve Cohen in Memphis or Lauren Underwood in IL-14, but again, they’re the exception, not the rule.

Is Feinstein's likely win of the Hispanic vote against de Leon in California an exception?

[Jeppe]

Feinstein is a long-time incumbent running against an underfunded candidate with low name recognition. If Feinstein wasn’t an incumbent, maybe it would’ve been different, but keep in mind Beto O’Rourke lost the Hispanic areas of Texas to a random Justice Democrat who was Hispanic. Dems Hernandez raised about $4,000 but got about 20%, winning in the border counties and doing well in the Hispanic areas of the metros.

[Dr. MB]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is an entirely different world. Political alliances can transcend racial groups, and more and more Hawaiians are mixed, but there are still significant differences in voting habits between the ethnicities, even within the Democratic electorate. It wasn’t a coincidence that Hanabusa won a large majority of Asian-American voters in the 2014 Senate primary, while Schatz got similar numbers among white voters.

Voters are naturally drawn to candidates that have similar backgrounds and upbringing, that’s why Obama got over 80% of the black vote in the 2008 Democratic Party against another white political figure the black community knew well and actually liked. Exceptions always exist, like Steve Cohen in Memphis or Mia Love in Utah, but again, they’re the exception, not the rule.

I think, in general, a non-white candidate will have an easier time winning in a majority-white area against a white candidate than a white candidate vs. a nonwhite candidate in a majority nonwhite area. Although race doesn’t play as big a role in candidate preference than you think it does.

Take the number of minority members of congress from white majority districts vs. white members from nonwhite districts (besides Cohen and Gene Green, are there any?)

[I’m not Stu]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is an entirely different world. Political alliances can transcend racial groups, and more and more Hawaiians are mixed, but there are still significant differences in voting habits between the ethnicities, even within the Democratic electorate. It wasn’t a coincidence that Hanabusa won a large majority of Asian-American voters in the 2014 Senate primary, while Schatz got similar numbers among white voters.

Voters are naturally drawn to candidates that have similar backgrounds and upbringing, that’s why Obama got over 80% of the black vote in the 2008 Democratic Party against another white political figure the black community knew well and actually liked. Exceptions always exist, like Steve Cohen in Memphis or Mia Love in Utah, but again, they’re the exception, not the rule.

I think, in general, a non-white candidate will have an easier time winning in a majority-white area against a white candidate than a white candidate vs. a nonwhite candidate in a majority nonwhite area. Although race doesn’t play as big a role in candidate preference than you think it does.

Take the number of minority members of congress from white majority districts vs. white members from nonwhite districts (besides Cohen and Gene Green, are there any?)

CA-47 and CA-14, and CA-15 are majority-minority, but represented by white Democrats. Polls show Feinstein winning Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties. Not sure about Imperial. Did O'Rourke win the Hispanic vote in the primary? Texas also has many smaller counties, unlike California, making it easier for lesser-known candidates to win counties. Polls show de Leon losing Hispanics by a wide margin. O'Rourke isn't as well-known as Feinstein, and doesn't have the advantage of incumbency.

[Badger]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is a VERY different political beast.

[I’m not Stu]

If Hirono does pass away in office, Hanabusa would appoint another Japanese-Hawaiian (or possibly just herself) to her Senate seat, so it’s win-win either way.

I think she'd appoint Gabbard actually...more to avoid a messy primary in the special, as Gabbard is certainly going to run for the seat.

Gabbard did endorse Hanabusa for Governor, so I could see Hanabusa returning the favour, but Hanabusa and Gabbard have never really been natural allies in past, so I’m not too sure. It also seems like Hanabusa is the de facto leader of the Hawaii Democratic establishment that Gabbard has never really fit into.

I think Hanabusa will be hard-pressed into appointing a member of the AJA community into Hirono’s seat, as Hirono could potentially be the last Japanese-American in Congress from Hawaii due to demographic changes. They’ve been used to having at least one of Hawaii’s Senate seats since Hawaii was made a state, and I don’t think it’s something they’re going to give up to Gabbard easily.

I doubt that – there are plenty of Japanese Americans in Hawaii politics still, and Kaniela Ing (part Japanese) and Beth Fukumoto are currently running for Congress.

Ing (who is polling at 2%) might as well have been disowned by the entire Japanese community after his Inouye comments, and Fukumoto’ is also going to have an uphill battle, seeing as she’s an outsider trying to win the support of a very machine-based community.

The Japanese community is concentrated in HI-1 and not HI-2, so it’s unlikely that Gabbard’s successor will be a Japanese-American, and it’s very likely that either Kim or Chin wins the HI-1 race, which leaves the Japanese community locked out of the Congressional delegation unless Hirono’s replacement is a Japanese-American.

A Japanese-American candidate could win a House or Senate seat. Ethnic background isn't everything when it comes to picking a candidate. In California, polls show Dianne Feinstein winning the Hispanic vote easily, even with a serious Hispanic candidate (Kevin de Leon) in the race. Platform and qualification are more important to voters.

Hawaii is an entirely different world. Political alliances can transcend racial groups, and more and more Hawaiians are mixed, but there are still significant differences in voting habits between the ethnicities, even within the Democratic electorate. It wasn’t a coincidence that Hanabusa won a large majority of Asian-American voters in the 2014 Senate primary, while Schatz got similar numbers among white voters.

Voters are naturally drawn to candidates that have similar backgrounds and upbringing, that’s why Obama got over 80% of the black vote in the 2008 Democratic Party against another white political figure the black community knew well and actually liked. Exceptions always exist, like Steve Cohen in Memphis or Mia Love in Utah, but again, they’re the exception, not the rule.

I think, in general, a non-white candidate will have an easier time winning in a majority-white area against a white candidate than a white candidate vs. a nonwhite candidate in a majority nonwhite area. Although race doesn’t play as big a role in candidate preference than you think it does.

Take the number of minority members of congress from white majority districts vs. white members from nonwhite districts (besides Cohen and Gene Green, are there any?)

Yes, there are more than just Cohen and Green. In California, there's Jackie Speier, Eric Swalwell, and Alan Lowenthal.