MTSU-TN Sen: Bredesen +10

[KingSweden]

TN, NV and MS Tilt D

This strikes me as a little too bullish

[CatoMinor]

Well I was skeptical at first, but multiple polls have Bredesen ahead. Senate Republicans should be sweating.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Blackburn will be fine with time.  TN polls always underestimate Republicans.  The average poll for the presidential election was something like Trump +10, while he won it by 26.  Also, barely a third of this sample was Republicans.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

This is what we're looking for in a potential win:

He won every single county in 2006. Of course, I know that Tennessee has moved to the right since then, but I can see him easily doing better than this map.

My above map was built off of a composite of his 2002 gubernatorial race, the 2006 Senate race and 2012/2016 presidentials (plus a bit of subjective gut instinct): basically everything either somewhat recent or somewhat competitive. He's definitely not going to pull 70% in the Senate race - and even if he did, the map would look quite a bit different than his win in '06 I imagine.

The GOP counties aren't as terribly unfavorable to him as they look in that map: basically Bredesen is getting around 42% of the vote in all of them combined (and 60% in the Democratic counties).

How did you make this map?

A few open tabs, MSPaint, a few different spreadsheet formulas for different types of counties. Like I said above, I used those 4 relevant elections as data-points to compile the results.

Bredesen should win Lake County, no?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It's a shame we can't simply run Trump. Every other Republican is simply a fool.

[Xing]

We'll see if Bredesen's polling holds up over the next few months, and it's true that polls in Tennessee can overestimate Democrats. Still, I doubt the polls would be off by this much, especially in a year where there's likely to be higher Democratic enthusiasm. I'll move this race from Likely R to Lean R, but if Blackburn continues to trail Bredesen, I'll see this is a real pick-up opportunity for Democrats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My dad donated $25 to Bredesen. Hopefully grassroots support like this will put him over the top. We all believe in you governor, go win this thing!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My dad donated $25 to Bredesen. Hopefully grassroots support like this will put him over the top. We all believe in you governor, go win this thing!

Your dad is a democrat too?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My dad donated $25 to Bredesen. Hopefully grassroots support like this will put him over the top. We all believe in you governor, go win this thing!

Your dad is a democrat too?

Yeah, probably even more so than me. He votes for democrats like 95%, and did a straight ticket in 2016. Barring any pedo situations (fortunately none have arisen here yet), McCain would be the only Republican that he would support against a democrat (he says that, and yet he still voted for Obama twice, and says he would vote for Obama over McCain again if given the choice, so take it with several grains of salt). He is economically a little more right than me, ie. lower taxes for corporations, believes government is an inefficient spender, repeal of estate tax, etc. but he is substantially to the left of me socially. We get in some arguments about some stuff, he is super pro lgbt, loves safe spaces, kinda pro choice ish, supports the notion that minorities deserve a ton special treatment, believes in micro aggressions, he is kind of an SJW. Overall, we agree most of the time, and support literally all the same candidates, but there are a few flashpoints that we argue about. We agree like 80-85% of the time, as for him, he is like me except for those issues and couple others, and tends to be more outspoken and loud, except his outspoken and loud self is always directed at Republicans, while I split mine.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My dad donated $25 to Bredesen. Hopefully grassroots support like this will put him over the top. We all believe in you governor, go win this thing!

Your dad is a democrat too?

Yeah, probably even more so than me. He votes for democrats like 95%, and did a straight ticket in 2016. Barring any pedo situations (fortunately none have arisen here yet), McCain would be the only Republican that he would support against a democrat (he says that, and yet he still voted for Obama twice, and says he would vote for Obama over McCain again if given the choice, so take it with several grains of salt). He is economically a little more right than me, ie. lower taxes for corporations, believes government is an inefficient spender, repeal of estate tax, etc. but he is substantially to the left of me socially. We get in some arguments about some stuff, he is super pro lgbt, loves safe spaces, kinda pro choice ish, supports the notion that minorities deserve a ton special treatment, believes in micro aggressions, he is kind of an SJW. Overall, we agree most of the time, and support literally all the same candidates, but there are a few flashpoints that we argue about. We agree like 80-85% of the time, as for him, he is like me except for those issues and couple others, and tends to be more outspoken and loud, except his outspoken and loud self is always directed at Republicans, while I split mine.

Your dad is actually one of those fabled "neoliberals" Atlas loves to cry about.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My dad donated $25 to Bredesen. Hopefully grassroots support like this will put him over the top. We all believe in you governor, go win this thing!

Your dad is a democrat too?

Yeah, probably even more so than me. He votes for democrats like 95%, and did a straight ticket in 2016. Barring any pedo situations (fortunately none have arisen here yet), McCain would be the only Republican that he would support against a democrat (he says that, and yet he still voted for Obama twice, and says he would vote for Obama over McCain again if given the choice, so take it with several grains of salt). He is economically a little more right than me, ie. lower taxes for corporations, believes government is an inefficient spender, repeal of estate tax, etc. but he is substantially to the left of me socially. We get in some arguments about some stuff, he is super pro lgbt, loves safe spaces, kinda pro choice ish, supports the notion that minorities deserve a ton special treatment, believes in micro aggressions, he is kind of an SJW. Overall, we agree most of the time, and support literally all the same candidates, but there are a few flashpoints that we argue about. We agree like 80-85% of the time, as for him, he is like me except for those issues and couple others, and tends to be more outspoken and loud, except his outspoken and loud self is always directed at Republicans, while I split mine.

Your dad is actually one of those fabled "neoliberals" Atlas loves to cry about.

Yeah, Atlas would not like him, but they would love him compared to me.

[jamestroll]

With the handicap of having no birth times for either Bredesen or Blackburn..

I would pick Bredesen to win on election night if pushed over Blackburn!

His transits and progressions are more favorable.

[fluffypanther19]

I can't really see Bredesen winning, but as of right now I'll concede this race appears to be Tossup-to-Tilt-R.

same, although I obviously hope he wins

[Don Vito Corleone]

The whole "Republicans always over-perform in TN" thing people keep saying sounds pretty similar to the "Republicans always over-perform in VA" routine we heard prior to Northam's win.

[Bidenworth2020]

The whole "Republicans always over-perform in TN" thing people keep saying sounds pretty similar to the "Republicans always over-perform in VA" routine we heard prior to Northam's win.

sure... not to mention breeds actually overperformed in his runs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NV and TN are leaning Democratic, that's all the Dems need for the majority.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Will this poll be put into the database?

[TarHeelDem]

I think I'm halfway between Lean R and Toss-Up here. Definitely an exciting race to follow moving forward and I could certainly see it going either way. I have NV and AZ in the Dem column right now. TN would make the majority 52-48...then MS for 53-47...then TX for 54-46...55-45 if McCain dies this year. Not expecting any incumbent Dems to lose their seats, but IN and MO might be very close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think I'm halfway between Lean R and Toss-Up here. Definitely an exciting race to follow moving forward and I could certainly see it going either way. I have NV and AZ in the Dem column right now. TN would make the majority 52-48...then MS for 53-47...then TX for 54-46...55-45 if McCain dies this year. Not expecting any incumbent Dems to lose their seats, but IN and MO might be very close.

Please God I hope this does not happen, it hurts and makes me shudder when you even say it .

[Canis]

Something else from the poll

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20% of republicans is HUGE!! Jones only won like 8% of republicans in the alabama special

[CatoMinor]

Will this poll be put into the database?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

May I ask why this poll was never put into the average?

[OSR stands with Israel]

idk, the polling looks interesting and all but I kind of hard to believe TN will flip this year when it didn't in 2006, which even then they were re-electing a dem Governor at the time.

This. Obviously Bredesen is a stronger candidate than Ford Jr., but the state has also gotten much more R since 2006. Then again, 2018 is shaping up to be a worse year for Republicans than 2006 for some reason, which is honestly the most astonishing thing for me.

Corker is also a much better candidate than Blackburn

[President Johnson]

idk, the polling looks interesting and all but I kind of hard to believe TN will flip this year when it didn't in 2006, which even then they were re-electing a dem Governor at the time.

This. Obviously Bredesen is a stronger candidate than Ford Jr., but the state has also gotten much more R since 2006. Then again, 2018 is shaping up to be a worse year for Republicans than 2006 for some reason, which is honestly the most astonishing thing for me.

Corker is also a much better candidate than Blackburn

Yes, but he would have probably lost the Republican primary to Blackburn.

[UWS]

This poll cannot be accurate because the Tennessee Senate race is Safe Republican in my ratings.

/s

I guess Blackburn could take the advantage over Bredesen by slamming him on his record on taxes since he raised taxes close to $1 billion during his time as Governor, which could label him as « too liberal for Tennessee ».

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/news/story/2009/aug/16/taxes-millions-under-bredesen/231046/

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/news/story/2010/dec/28/bredesen-tax-legacy-may-be-tough-act-to-follow/37946/