Arnold's approvals

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Vetoing that gay marriage bill and announcing he's running for re-election didn't work out too well for him.



http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=17e0cb75-25b8-4e2d-b222-8cb4ce9db267

Hasta la vista, Arnold.

[Alcon]

If SurveyUSA's internals are to be trusted (which in some cases, I don't think they are), Arnold is hemorrhaging among non-college graduates.

This seems strange to me, since you'd think that this would be the group that would least mind vetoing the gay marriage bill.

There has to be something to it other than the gay marriage bill...you just don't get 2:1 disapproval that easily.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If SurveyUSA's internals are to be trusted (which in some cases, I don't think they are), Arnold is hemorrhaging among non-college graduates.

This seems strange to me, since you'd think that this would be the group that would least mind vetoing the gay marriage bill.

There has to be something to it other than the gay marriage bill...you just don't get 2:1 disapproval that easily.

They obviously hate him for other reasons, like his cutting money for bus systems, teachers, nurses, and so on. The gay marriage thing might have hurt him with some libertarians. He's now doing absolutely terrible amoung liberals and blacks, and pretty bad amoung people under 35.

Yeah, he's really lost a lot of support recently amoung those who haven't been to college and men. There's almost no gender gap any more.

[Umengus]

Majority of californians is against gay marriage isn't it?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Majority of californians is against gay marriage isn't it?

No. It has a 46%-46% split.

[The Duke]

Arnold's approval has moved 4 points.  The margin of error in the poll is 4 points.

Just letting you know.

[Alcon]

Arnold's approval has moved 4 points.  The margin of error in the poll is 4 points.

Just letting you know.

I think the bigger concern for the Governor is that he has an almost 2-to-1 disapproval, which is a bit out of the 4% MoE.

Also, John, if you look at the polling dates, you'll notice that two of them are three days apart (the last two).  If you want meaningful numbers, look at the difference between the latest numbers and the one from a month ago - and his disapproval has gone up 9 points, and his approval down 5.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Arnold's approval has moved 4 points.  The margin of error in the poll is 4 points.

Just letting you know.

If you ignore the 9/16 poll and compare 8/15 to 9/19, his approval has dropped 5 points, and his disapproval has gone up a statistically significant 9 points.

[Alcon]

Is there any way to calculate the MoE of the approve-disapprove split?

(This may be an incredibly dumb question - I am completely exhausted.)

[The Duke]

Arnold's approval has moved 4 points.  The margin of error in the poll is 4 points.

Just letting you know.

I think the bigger concern for the Governor is that he has an almost 2-to-1 disapproval, which is a bit out of the 4% MoE.

Also, John, if you look at the polling dates, you'll notice that two of them are three days apart (the last two).  If you want meaningful numbers, look at the difference between the latest numbers and the one from a month ago - and his disapproval has gone up 9 points, and his approval down 5.

I'm just saying, don't read too much into it.  People tend to do that with polls.

Also, Pete Wilson had NEARLY IDENTICAL NUMBERS at this point in 1993, and a far stronger opponent than any that Arnold faces (The Bill Clinton story notwithstanding).

[Smash255]

Arnold's approval has moved 4 points.  The margin of error in the poll is 4 points.

Just letting you know.

I think the bigger concern for the Governor is that he has an almost 2-to-1 disapproval, which is a bit out of the 4% MoE.

Also, John, if you look at the polling dates, you'll notice that two of them are three days apart (the last two).  If you want meaningful numbers, look at the difference between the latest numbers and the one from a month ago - and his disapproval has gone up 9 points, and his approval down 5.

I'm just saying, don't read too much into it.  People tend to do that with polls.

Also, Pete Wilson had NEARLY IDENTICAL NUMBERS at this point in 1993, and a far stronger opponent than any that Arnold faces (The Bill Clinton story notwithstanding).

Granted Wilson's #'s were in the same range & he did win.  But the fact is Arnold's #'s right now are very ppor, and while things can change it doesn't look good for him

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Is there any way to calculate the MoE of the approve-disapprove split?

(This may be an incredibly dub question - I am completely exhausted.)

To be safe, double it. The MOE might be slightly less than that stated, since neither is near 50% (which gives the largest MOE).

Arnold's approval has moved 4 points.  The margin of error in the poll is 4 points.

Just letting you know.

I think the bigger concern for the Governor is that he has an almost 2-to-1 disapproval, which is a bit out of the 4% MoE.

Also, John, if you look at the polling dates, you'll notice that two of them are three days apart (the last two).  If you want meaningful numbers, look at the difference between the latest numbers and the one from a month ago - and his disapproval has gone up 9 points, and his approval down 5.

I'm just saying, don't read too much into it.  People tend to do that with polls.

Also, Pete Wilson had NEARLY IDENTICAL NUMBERS at this point in 1993, and a far stronger opponent than any that Arnold faces (The Bill Clinton story notwithstanding).

Maybe his approvals were this low, but were his disapprovals this high?

[Democratic Hawk]

Hasta la vista, Arnold.

I'd like to think that this holds true. Hasta la vista, gimmick

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Arnold is actually less popular than Bush in CA.

[Lincoln Republican]

Vetoing "Gay Marriage" is one of the few things Schwarzenegger has done right. 

Good for him!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Vetoing "Gay Marriage" is one of the few things Schwarzenegger has done right. 

Good for him!

Yes, it was definitely worth not having gay marriage for another 18 months to have his disapprovals go up 9 points.