SUSA governor approval ratings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Some highlights

Warner and Schweitzer are kicking ass with 66-26 and 66-27 ratings.
Arnold is completely toast with his 32-65. He is less popular than the amazingly scandal ridden Kentucky governor.
Taft has an amazing 17-79.

The Republican trashing of Blanco and free pass given to Barbour caused large swings in the obvious directions. Of course NOLA not existing might be hurting Blanco.

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/50StateGovernorApproval0905SortedbyNetApproval.htm

[Joe Republic]

Taft has an amazing 17-79.

I'm so proud.

[The Dowager Mod]

Nice to see Murkowski at the bottom.

[Gabu]

I just noticed something that's kind of funny: the organization seems to indicate that, ignoring the very bottom, the Bush states approve of their governors more than the Kerry states, regardless of the political affiliation of the governor.

I wonder why that is.

[Jake]

The mitty base has finally been reached for Taft. Expect him to remain around 17% from now on.

[Alcon]

Before I go in-depth into this I have to ask...

What the hell is with Bob Riley?  I thought he was hated and a possible reason for the GOP losing Alabama in 2006.

He's up 21...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Map, but there's no 17% option for Taft of Ohio.

[Alcon]

The entire south has apparently decided to love their governors.

Bob Riley went from -2% to +21%.

Haley Barbour went from -11% to +19%.

Mike Easley went from +13% to +34%.

Rick Perry went from -15% to +4%.

Huh?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Either there's a lot of love in Dixie right now or SUSA blew up down there

[Alcon]

Anyway, here is the change from July:

1.  Barbour, Haley (R-MS)  +30%
2.  Riley, Bob (R-AL)  +23%
3.  Easley, Michael (D-NC)  +21%
4.  Perry, Rick (R-TX)  +19%
5.  Pawlenty, Tim (R-MN)  +17%
6.  Perdue, Sonny (R-GA)  +14%
7.  Schweitzer, Brian (D-MT)  +12%
8.  Kulongoski, Ted (D-OR)  +10%
9.  Gregoire, Christine (D-WA)  +10%
10.  Freudenthal, Dave (D-WY)  +9%
11.  Richardson, Bill (D-NM)  +7%
12.  Guinn, Kenny (R-NV)  +6%
13.  Granholm, Jennifer (D-MI)  +6%
14.  Sebelius, Kathleen (D-KS)  +5%
15.  Sanford, Mark (R-SC)  +5%
16.  Heineman, Dave (R-NE)  +4%
17.  Romney, Mitt (R-MA)  +4%
18.  Lynch, John (D-NH)  +3%
19.  Owens, Bill (R-CO) +3%
20.  Rendell, Ed (D-PA)  +3%
21.  Doyle, Jim (D-WI)  +3%
22.  Huntsman, Jon (R-UT)  +2%
23.  Warner, Mark (D-VA)  +2%
24.  Douglas, Jim (R-VT)  +2%
25.  Napolitano, Janet (D-AZ)  +2%
26.  Huckabee, Mike (D-AR)  +2%
27.  Codey, Richard (D-NJ)  +2%
28.  Ehrlich, Robert (R-MD)  +2%
29.  Rounds, Mike (R-SD)  +1%
30.  Bush, Jeb (R-FL)  +1%
31.  Minner, Ruth Ann (D-DE)  +1%
32.  Blunt, Matt (R-MO)  +1%
33.  Hoeven, John (R-ND)  UNCH
34.  Carcieri, Don (R-RI)  UNCH
35.  Rell, Jodi (R-CT)  -1%
36.  Vilsack, Tom (D-IA)  -1%
37.  Pataki, George (R-NY)  -1%
38.  Baldacci, John (D-ME)  -1%
39.  Lingle, Linda (R-HI)  -2%
40.  Blagojevich, Rod (D-IL)  -3%
41.  Taft, Bob (R-OH)  -3%
42.  Bredesen, Phil (D-TN)  -4%
43.  Henry, Brad (D-OK) -5%
44.  Kempthorne, Dirk (R-ID)  -5%
45.  Fletcher, Ernie (R-KY)  -5%
46.  Murkowski, Frank (R-AK)  -5%
47.  Daniels, Mitch (R-IN)  -6%
48.  Manchin, Joe (D-WV)  -8%
49.  Schwarzenegger, Arnold (R-CA)  -8%
50.  Blanco, Kathleen (D-LA)  -31%

[The Dowager Mod]

Barbour screwed up just as bad as Blanco.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's the no college people who have really swong on Arnold

They went 48-30-13 for him the recall and 58-42 yes on the recall, versus 49-32-13 overall, and 55-45 for the recall overall.

Now they disapprove of him 75-21.

[Alcon]

Looking at Louisiana:

In this poll, the breakdown was 42% Southeastern Louisiana, 58% the rest.  Interestingly, Blanco does worse in the Southeast than the rest, with a 16% disapproval gap versus 15% in the rest of the state.

The breakdown was also 42% and 58% last time, and last time too Blanco did better out of the Southeast, with 6% approval in the Southeast and 23% in the rest of the state.

That doesn't make much sense to me.

[ian]

Bredesen was pretty popular, I thought.
Apparently, he's as liked as he is disliked.  This could be a problem if he runs for re-election.

[Alcon]

Bredesen was pretty popular, I thought.
Apparently, he's as liked as he is disliked.  This could be a problem if he runs for re-election.

Ah, joy, it has finally happened!

Bredesen has a ten-point approval among Republicans, but a two-point disapproval among Democrats.

Interestingly, this doesn't translate into success among Independents, where he has a six point disapproval, even though moderates approve of him by six points (conservatives approve by 2, liberals disapprove by 7).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bredesen was pretty popular, I thought.
Apparently, he's as liked as he is disliked.  This could be a problem if he runs for re-election.

Ah, joy, it has finally happened!

Bredesen has a ten-point approval among Republicans, but a two-point disapproval among Democrats.

Interestingly, this doesn't translate into success among Independents, where he has a six point disapproval, even though moderates approve of him by six points (conservatives approve by 2, liberals disapprove by 7).

So basically he's a Republican.

[bgwah]

Gregoire is recovering nicely, I see.

LOL. 62% disapproval among blacks, though. Thanks NAACP.

[Alcon]

Gregoire is recovering nicely, I see.

LOL. 62% disapproval among blacks, though. Thanks NAACP.

Yes, she is.  I'm not sure why - I don't approve of her.  What has she done?

62% disapproval among blacks is...odd.  Not to mention her regional numbers.  +6 in the west (27% of the sample) makes reasonable sense, as does -10 in the east (19% of the sample) - although that seems surprisingly close - but -7 in "metro Seattle" (54% of the sample)?  What?

Considering that King County is about a third of the state's population, "metro Seattle" must include Island, King, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap, and Jefferson Counties (per the Census definition).  But if Gregoire is -7 there, that means she is +6 overall on the coast, interior Southeast, Whatcom County, Olympia, and Bellingham?

If Gregoire was -7 in "Seattle metro" she should be down about 25 statewide, and certainly not just down by 10 in the east...none of this makes sense.

Screwy internals to say the least.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gregoire is recovering nicely, I see.

LOL. 62% disapproval among blacks, though. Thanks NAACP.

Yes, she is.  I'm not sure why - I don't approve of her.  What has she done?

62% disapproval among blacks is...odd.  Not to mention her regional numbers.  +6 in the west (27% of the sample) makes reasonable sense, as does -10 in the east (19% of the sample) - although that seems surprisingly close - but -7 in "metro Seattle" (54% of the sample)?  What?

Considering that King County is about a third of the state's population, "metro Seattle" must include Island,King, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap, and Jefferson Counties (per the Census definition).  But if Gregoire is -7 there, that means she is +6 overall on the coast, interior Southeast, Whatcom County, Olympia, and Bellingham?

Screwy internals to say the least.

Subsamples obviously have higher MOEs.

[Alcon]

Gregoire is recovering nicely, I see.

LOL. 62% disapproval among blacks, though. Thanks NAACP.

Yes, she is.  I'm not sure why - I don't approve of her.  What has she done?

62% disapproval among blacks is...odd.  Not to mention her regional numbers.  +6 in the west (27% of the sample) makes reasonable sense, as does -10 in the east (19% of the sample) - although that seems surprisingly close - but -7 in "metro Seattle" (54% of the sample)?  What?

Considering that King County is about a third of the state's population, "metro Seattle" must include Island,King, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap, and Jefferson Counties (per the Census definition).  But if Gregoire is -7 there, that means she is +6 overall on the coast, interior Southeast, Whatcom County, Olympia, and Bellingham?

Screwy internals to say the least.

Subsamples obviously have higher MOEs.

When a subsample consists 54% of the overall sample and is horribly, horribly off (Gregoire should be running up about 15 for these numbers to be reasonable), it's concerning.

I haven't taken statistics, but this seems fundamentally questionable.

[bgwah]

Gregoire is recovering nicely, I see.

LOL. 62% disapproval among blacks, though. Thanks NAACP.

Yes, she is.  I'm not sure why - I don't approve of her.  What has she done?

62% disapproval among blacks is...odd.  Not to mention her regional numbers.  +6 in the west (27% of the sample) makes reasonable sense, as does -10 in the east (19% of the sample) - although that seems surprisingly close - but -7 in "metro Seattle" (54% of the sample)?  What?

Considering that King County is about a third of the state's population, "metro Seattle" must include Island, King, Pierce, Snohomish, Kitsap, and Jefferson Counties (per the Census definition).  But if Gregoire is -7 there, that means she is +6 overall on the coast, interior Southeast, Whatcom County, Olympia, and Bellingham?

If Gregoire was -7 in "Seattle metro" she should be down about 25 statewide, and certainly not just down by 10 in the east...none of this makes sense.

Screwy internals to say the least.

Seattle can't include Jefferson. I do think the 2000 census put Olympia/Thurston in Metro Seattle though, so maybe that's the case.

Under the Democratic administration Washington has gotten out of its budget defecit (Did I spell that wrong??). That's something.

And remember Alcon, the NAACP accused Gregoire of being racist. Hundreds (if not thousands) of people who would've normally voted Gregoire wrote-in Sims or voted for Rossi because of this. I could be wrong though, the black sample vote is likely tiny.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Pataki is 36-60 in upstate NY. That's just amazing.

[nini2287]

Here's a thought, since most of the displaced in LA are probably African-American Democrats, they weren't able to be polled in signficant numbers, probably hurting Blanco's rating.

[Alcon]

Seattle can't include Jefferson. I do think the 2000 census put Olympia/Thurston in Metro Seattle though, so maybe that's the case.

Under the Democratic administration Washington has gotten out of its budget defecit (Did I spell that wrong??). That's something.

And remember Alcon, the NAACP accused Gregoire of being racist. Hundreds (if not thousands) of people who would've normally voted Gregoire wrote-in Sims or voted for Rossi because of this. I could be wrong though, the black sample vote is likely tiny.

I'm not sure of the 2000 Census, but information I've seen puts Olympia outside of the metro and Jefferson in it - it doesn't make a lick of sense, but I know at least one Census reading included Jefferson County in the Seattle Metro.

I hadn't heard about the budget defecit.  That's good to know.  It increases my opinion of Gregoire substantially.  I feel bad for not knowing that.

Here's a thought, since most of the displaced in LA are probably African-American Democrats, they weren't able to be polled in signficant numbers, probably hurting Blanco's rating.

30% black in both polls.  I think that SurveyUSA uses hard weights, which is probably a dumb idea considering the demographic changes.

[© tweed]

My Notes

-Arnold is done.
-Blagojevic is done.
-Granholm may very well lose against a poor candidate in DeVos
-Doyle and Rendell are in the same boat politically...analyze it every which way and you'll see what I mean.
-Hoeven is worshiped...goodbye to the ND senate seat in 2006.
-Too bad Warner can't run for re-election.  That really sucks.
-Manchin, Schweitzer, and Easley are potential national players, especially the last two.

That's all for now.