Probability of global war directly involving US, China, and Russia *soon*?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Discuss our grim global geopolitical situation and the possible/likely War to End All Wars Life here.

[Dr. MB]

Very low. 2%.

If it didn't happen in 1962, it's not happening now.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Very low. 2%.

If it didn't happen in 1962, it's not happening now.

K. Thanks for the reassurance!

[°Leprechaun]

< 20% but could be close to 20%.

Am I being too optimistic?
Hopefully, the mid terms could help, but who knows?

[°Leprechaun]

Also, there may be some life left (IDK), perhaps in Antarctica anyway, if we have an all out nuclear war on a global scale. So we have two choices: 1) Get rid of all weapons on the planet (at least all of the nuclear ones). or.... 2a) send all the sane pacifists to Mars or 2b) send all the insane war lovers to Mars, which is named, after, after all, on the god of WAR.

Regardless of how likely WWIII is soon, as time goes on the odds won't go down unless we give peace a chance and stop spending trillions of dollars on the Military.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

< 20% but could be close to 20%.

Am I being too optimistic?
Hopefully, the mid terms could help, but who knows?

You're being extremely pessimistic and I hope you realize that.

as MB said:

Very low. 2%.

If it didn't happen in 1962, it's not happening now.

[°Leprechaun]

< 20% but could be close to 20%.

Am I being too optimistic?
Hopefully, the mid terms could help, but who knows?

You're being extremely pessimistic and I hope you realize that.

as MB said:

Very low. 2%.

If it didn't happen in 1962, it's not happening now.

Well, ok, then, but shouldn't we be even a little bit concerned? I don't like the idea of anyone having to die needlessly even if it's only one person. I did say less than <20%, but how can we really know?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

< 20% but could be close to 20%.

Am I being too optimistic?
Hopefully, the mid terms could help, but who knows?

You're being extremely pessimistic and I hope you realize that.

as MB said:

Very low. 2%.

If it didn't happen in 1962, it's not happening now.

Well, ok, then, but shouldn't we be even a little bit concerned? I don't like the idea of anyone having to die needlessly even if it's only one person. I did say less than <20%, but how can we really know?

No, we really shouldn't be concerned. of all the things that could happen that would lead to death and destruction, this is by far one of the least likely.

[dead0man]

If you think there is a 40-60% chance we have a war with Russia and/or the PRC "soon", then you are a giant dummy and you should probably go learn some sh**t instead of continuing posting and embarrassing yourself.

These voting options are insane and you should feel bad.

[EPG]

The last two times this world war business happened, it was obvious that the powers were building up to a war among each other, guaranteeing Polish/Belgian/Serbian independence, building alliances, building big ships. So I would guess that happens first.

[mvd10]

Nah, not going to happen. When push comes to shove Mattis will literally manhandle Trump, and I don't think Putin or Xi will allow themselves to be provoked by Trump. But I think the odds of the US running into a war with Iran or NK are worryingly high (but still fairly low). What would anyone achieve with a war? Russia probably is fine with dividing the West, getting Russia-friendly governments in former Soviet Republics and preventing EU unity so they can have a seat at the table and China just wants to be taken seriously which probably will happen automatically unless they f**k up (there are some deeply worrying trends in the Chinese economy though, we better hope they solve their problems). This doesn't mean we shouldn't confront them with diplomatic means and/or sanctions if necessary. Putin shouldn't get away with everything.

[ChinaSoc]

Proxy war in Iran/DPRK is more likely now.

But the current scenario looks a lot like 1914 and the West is preparing people for war with extreme fear mongering against both Russia (russiagate, Skripal) and China (South China Sea, Xi the "emperor", Confucius Institute "indocrination").

They are more pissed at Russia than China now, since they ruined their plans in Ukraine and Syria, but they feel threatened by China, sending fleets to the South China Sea (imagine the western reaction if China sent fleets to the Gulf of Mexico, but since it's the world police aka America they are fine with the opposite, it's protection against an agressor).

[Storebought]

The probability of a global conflict is, like everyone says, practically nil.

A military conflict with China is not at all nil, but still certainly small. Even a hostile confrontation on the South China Sea will not lead to a war.

I still think it more likely that the US starts a war against Iran than with North Korea. Iran is the easier target (even thought it's not at all an easy target).

But I think you are all mistaken about Russia: the US and NATO might not want a war with Russia, but Russia certainly wants a war against us. The probability of Russia engineering a conflict against the US and NATO is certainly not negligible.

[ChinaSoc]

The probability of a global conflict is, like everyone says, practically nil.

A military conflict with China is not at all nil, but still certainly small. Even a hostile confrontation on the South China Sea will not lead to a war.

I still think it more likely that the US starts a war against Iran than with North Korea. Iran is the easier target (even thought it's not at all an easy target).

But I think you are all mistaken about Russia: the US and NATO might not want a war with Russia, but Russia certainly wants a war against us. The probability of Russia engineering a conflict against the US and NATO is certainly not negligible.

Well, NATO has put their missiles aimed at Russia and reached their border, they are also pissed that Putin blocked their attempt to instal the FSAl Qaeda jihadis in the Syrian government and came in to support Assad, calling Russia the agressor is ridiculous.

And Russiagate is a lousy conspiracy liberals have pushed to take away any blame from losing the election to Donald Trump of all people nominating the least charismatic and most compromised candidate they could have nominated.

[Cashew]

Absolutely none. The coming war with Iran will turn into a debacle and finally discredit the neocons, after which Americans will be averse to major wars for at least several decades.

[Beet]

In every decade since the advent of the European nation-state there has been a major war or series of wars drawing in all the biggest powers.

In the 1500s, there were the Wars of Religion.
In the 1600s, there was the Thirty Years War.
In the 1700s, there was the War of Spanish Succession and Seven Years' War.
In the 1800s, there were the Napoleonic Wars.
In the 1900s, there were the World Wars.

The difference today, is that our weapons have become so much powerful, as has our ability to deal damage. As Albert Einstein once said, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." Arguably this is the single biggest political issue facing our entire generation worldwide, whether in this century we can avoid the war that our forefathers fell into in previous centuries.

[NewYorkExpress]

Involving all three? 0%

Involving the US and EITHER Russia or China? 10%

Putin/Xi aren't stupid enough to jump into a war where the other is involved.

[dead0man]

Absolutely none. The coming war with Iran will turn into a debacle and finally discredit the neocons, after which Americans will be averse to major wars for at least several decades.

that war that's been coming since 2006?  US getting ready to bomb Iran?
Should Bush be allowed to attack Iran w/o Congressional Authorization
Circumvent the War in Iran
and two from the same guy with the same title a few months apart
Iran...?
Iran..?

and that's just from 07 and early 08.  It just goes on like that for the next decade.  America haters just KNOW we're about to attack Iran...or, ya know, the more likely answer that America haters are just dumb.

[ag]

About 60% or a bit higher. More likely than not, that is.