Theoretically - the most republican district in the state and their best chance. Roraback almost won it in 2012, and would, probably win if it was 2010 or 2014 instead. But this year it will be not easy for any Republican candidate (and so far i don't see a "heavyweight" among them)
Petit would be pretty strong. As an aside, the 5th I would say is actually tied for the most Republican district with the 2nd. It's just that Courtney is super popular. From experience, even people who vote straight Republican vote for Courtney under some strange impression that he's a Blue Dog.
And the 2nd and 5th have much deeper GOP bench than the Dems for future candidates